From ancient times to the present, the house is a "big thing", and buying a house is a very important thing in people's lives. And the house is a necessity in people's lives, a symbol of home, so for people who enter the city and are ready to settle in the city for a long time, buying a house to live in and their families is the top priority. But buying a house is not an easy task, but a very difficult thing, because house prices are too high, and house prices are rising much faster than wages. According to statistics, in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, the national average house price has risen by as much as 4 times, and the house price in most cities has risen by more than ten times or even dozens of times. That is, in the past, as long as people could not afford to buy a house, as the house price rose, people would increasingly unable to afford to buy a house. On the contrary, as long as you buy a house, people's wealth will continue to increase with the rise in house prices. Therefore, in the past, there has been a saying in society that "buy a house should be bought early", "buy a house if you have money, and buy a house if you don't have money to borrow money".
However, in the past two years, with the continuous tightening of the property market regulation policy, not only the momentum of house price rise has been slowly contained, but also the house prices in some cities and regions have recently shown signs of decline. Originally, the fall in house prices is a good thing for people who are ready to buy a house, but people buying a house and falling house prices are a very contradictory thing in themselves, this is because before buying a house, people have always wanted house prices to fall, but after buying a house, people want house prices to rise, and they begin to worry about falling house prices.
Therefore, now many regional and urban housing prices have indeed fallen, but people have begun to hesitate again, and many people who are ready to buy a house have begun to wait and see. For people's worries, the author also understands, and is also deeply experienced, after all, the current house price is still in a very high position, now people buy a house, not only to spend their savings, empty "6 wallets", and finally carry twenty or thirty years of mortgage. That is to say, a house that concentrates a family's decades of savings and wages for the next few decades is an important asset, and people naturally do not want to face a decline in house prices when they buy a house.
On the other hand, the experience of continuous rising house prices in the past has also worried many people, because house prices have fallen several times in the past, and the property market has experienced the same dilemma as now. But in the end, house prices have rebounded again, and each time they have reached a new high, resulting in many people missing out on the opportunity to buy a house, and finally more and more unable to afford to buy a house. Nowadays, many people who are ready to buy a house are worried about the decline in house prices, and at the same time, they are worried about the rise in house prices, and their hearts are very contradictory. Therefore, people now have been hesitant to buy a house or not, and they don't know how to choose. So, in the current situation of unclear property market trends, in this year and next year, should we "buy a house as soon as possible" or "wait a little longer"? For this problem, Ma Yun once said in an internal letter to employees: If it was ten years ago, it was okay to buy a house, but now, young people should also learn to rent a house.
That is to say, Ma Yun is not optimistic about the current trend of house prices, and suggests that today's young people should first learn to rent a house, and it is not recommended to be too anxious to buy a house. In this regard, Wang Shi, founder of Vanke, has a similar view. Wang Shi said when asked by reporters whether young people should buy a house early: Young people do not need to be too anxious to buy a house, now it is a mobile society, and it is easy to be fixed after buying a house. Young people should start a business first, and then buy a house when they have money later. It can be seen that Wang Shi also does not recommend young people to buy a house early, Wang Shi believes that young people will be fixed to a place after buying a house, which restricts the development of young people. In addition, Wang Shi also said that the current post-80s, post-90s and post-00s are basically only children, and their parents and grandparents have houses, so they do not lack houses at all, and the demand for houses is not large.
In addition, for the problem of house prices continuing to rise sharply in the future, in fact, there is no need to worry, house prices will not continue to rise as in the past. This is because at present, our country's housing resources have been excessive, and under the property market regulation and control policy, the problem of excess housing resources has been slowly exposed. For example, in the second-hand housing market, since March this year, the number of second-hand housing listings in many cities across the country has begun to surge, and the number of new second-hand housing listings in the country in March has risen by 86% month-on-month, almost doubled. At present, the number of second-hand housing listings in cities such as Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Chengdu, Harbin and Chongqing has exceeded 100,000 sets, of which the number of second-hand houses in many cities has exceeded 150,000 sets, and the number of second-hand houses listed in Chongqing (only in urban areas) has exceeded 200,000 sets. While the number of second-hand housing listings continues to surge, the second-hand housing market has seen the phenomenon of falling in volume and price. That is to say, there are more and more people selling houses now, and fewer people buying houses.
In the new housing market, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, since July this year, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in the country has begun to decline, even in September of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing has declined month-on-month and year-on-year. In September, more than 90% of the TOP100 housing enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease in sales performance, and more than 60% of the housing enterprises' sales fell by more than 30% year-on-year. As new houses become more and more difficult to sell, the inventory data of newly built commercial housing continues to rise, according to statistics, by the end of 2020, the inventory data of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities across the country has exceeded 510.4 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year.
It can be seen that at present, whether it is the new housing market or the second-hand market, there has been a serious oversupply phenomenon, and in the environment of continuous tightening of regulatory policies, people's confidence in the property market is insufficient, and the demand for housing is also decreasing. More importantly, under the influence of the "three red lines" and the "loan restriction order", the property market has lost the support of funds. Therefore, the current property market environment has been difficult to support the continued rise in house prices, and buyers do not have to worry about it.
For the problem of continuous decline in house prices, in fact, there is no need to worry, because the state's regulation and control policy for the property market is mainly based on stability, and maintains the healthy and stable development of real estate by stabilizing house prices, stabilizing land prices and stabilizing expectations. Therefore, the sharp rise and fall of house prices are not in line with regulatory policies. Therefore, for the trend of house prices this year and next year, it is still mainly stable, and house prices will rise or fall according to supply and demand in stability.
Therefore, it is clear whether to buy a house as soon as possible or wait this year and next. The current house price trend is very suitable for just need to buy a house, if it is just needed, and the economic conditions allow, you can choose to buy a house as soon as possible. If the economic conditions do not allow, there is no need to rush to buy a house, you can wait, and it is not too late to buy a house after the economic conditions permit. Especially for young people who have just graduated from work, in the case of insufficient savings and low income level, there is no need to be too anxious to buy a house, and you can choose to rent a house first.