Rhino Entertainment Original
Text|Xiaofu Editor|Park Fang
The speed of the broader market recovery is actually not as fast as we think.
Since the end of the Spring Festival, the film market has entered a traditional cold period. Although there are many good-quality projects released, they still expose the coldness of the market that is difficult to recover quickly after a long downturn.
And the May 1st gear more than half a month later may be the most important opportunity to warm up the summer season with a hot first half of the market.
May 1st is the largest capacity between the Spring Festival and the summer every year. Looking at the situation of the May 1st gear in the past five years, the total output of the schedule has shown an upward trend, of course, the main impact of this trend is also the length of the schedule. Like 2019, the second highest box office in the history of the schedule, the May 1st file has a total of 4 days, and in 2021, which refreshes the high point of film history, the May 1st file occupies a five-day long holiday.
This year is similar to 2021, and May Day has caught up with a five-day holiday, which undoubtedly means that this schedule will have a larger market capacity.
Judging from the current fixed lineup, this year's May 1st gear is still very worthy of optimism.
This year, May Day, five days and nine parts
As of April 12, a total of nine key films will be released on May 1st.
Similar to many films released in the past two months, this year's May 1st also brings together a number of projects accumulated last year. Like the three films "King of the Long Sky", "Shocking Rescue" and "Prosecutor Storm", they have all experienced finalization and then withdrawal. The romance film "Countdown to Say Love You" was originally planned to be released within last year.
Among these projects that do not seem "new" enough, there are many popular films aimed at heavy schedules such as summer and National Day, which virtually improves the overall strength of this year's May 1st file.
At this stage, "The King of the Long Sky", which led the popularity of the May 1st program, was originally scheduled for last year's National Day file, which was the first film in China to focus on the group of test pilots, and before the announcement of the withdrawal, the film's pre-screening popularity and pre-sales results ranked first in the same period. After coming to the new battlefield of this year's May 1st file, the popularity of "King of the Long Sky" still boosted the film to firmly occupy the top seed position in the same schedule, and the cumulative number of people who want to watch Maotao has exceeded 120w.
The disaster action film "Shocking Rescue" has also experienced the withdrawal of the fixed file, just looking at the theme and cast, there are many similar projects in the past market, and the film does not have obvious advantages. However, the film is the earliest project of May 1st to start screening, and from the perspective of the first batch of screening cities and time range, the film still has a certain confidence in its own content quality, especially in the penetration ability of the sinking market.
As the only comedy in May 1st, "Life is Unfamiliar" just needs a bonus for the steady earning genre. The film is directed by Yi Xiaoxing, whose last comedy work "The King of Bath" won more than 400 million box office results in the 2020 New Year file. At present, relying on the advantages of genre, "Life Road Unfamiliar" may have a certain basic plate in the May 1st file, and the film side also started to act relatively early, and it is now the only new May Day film to open pre-sale in addition to "Shocking Rescue" that was screened in advance.
I don't know when it started, romance films have also become a fixed team of May 1st. Especially in the two years after the epidemic, the two romance films "Your Wedding" in 2021 and "I Really Hate Long-distance Relationships" in 2022 have steadily dominated the May 1st file. This year's May 1st file, there are still indispensable romance films.
This year's May 1st show brings together two romance films, "Countdown to Love You" and "So Many Years", which are about to be staged on the same day. Among them, "Countdown to Love You" was originally planned to be released last year, and then announced to enter the May 1st file in March this year, and "So Many Years" is a typical youth film with small broad.
Both films are starring young actors with a certain audience recognition, and in terms of theme, the story of "Countdown to Love You" incorporates certain fantasy elements, and "So Many Years" is a more traditional youth love project. Therefore, although the two types are similar, the segmentation targeting is still different.
"Changsha Nightlife" is a relatively special work in the May 1st file. Just looking at the title can't see through the selling points, just looking at the plot is very much like a platter feature film, but what is certain is that the huge "Changsha" starring column, as well as the strong urban selling points in the publicity stage, have made this film special enough.
"Prosecutor", which has been delayed for a year, will finally be unveiled. As a rare prosecutor-themed project in China, the film fills the vacancy of crime genre films and main theme movies in May 1st this year.
Finally, there are two animations aimed at young audiences, "New Pigman Movie Super Racing" and "Paradise Valley Adventure", although they are relatively weak in the early stage of popularity and IP potential, but considering the loose schedule, the pressure to find the target audience is not too great.
If you strictly follow the market capacity of the May 1st gear, the number of nine new films in five days is compact enough. But considering that the pile of projects in various schedules in the past few years after the epidemic is relatively serious, and even before the withdrawal of last year's May 1st file, there were ten new films, compared with the same period, the nine key new films in this area are not exaggerated at all.
The most "balanced" May 1st gear
In addition to the most intuitive number of new films, we read more positive market signals from this list.
The first is a wealth of project types.
Including before the epidemic, this year's May 1st should be the most diverse year for new film genres in the past five years. Military, action, romance, crime, animation, family, these rich genres allow the audience to choose more freely. In addition, most of the new films are medium-sized, and there is no suppression of heavyweight projects, which naturally allows more new films to gain sufficient market space.
The second is a sufficiently large audience difference.
Behind the rich types of projects, there are different selling points of the film. For example, starring Wang Yibo, "The King of the Long Sky", which led the pre-sale of the National Day file last year, is extremely popular in popularity. And "Shocking Rescue", which opened a large-scale screening half a month in advance, played a word-of-mouth card.
The only comedy in the schedule "Life Road is Not Familiar", the love that has won many battles in the May 1st show just needs "Count Down to Love You" and "So Many Years", the main theme "Prosecutor Storm", the novel type of "Changsha Nightlife", the introduction of domestic animation "New Pigman" and "Paradise Valley Adventure"... Although there are many projects, if you look closely, these projects focus on different vertical fields, which is expected to form a more ideal differentiated competition.
This "balanced" schedule arrangement can amplify the market potential of a film to a greater extent, achieve a win-win situation for multiple films, and bring benefits to the entire market. After three years of turbulent markets, we have not seen such a benign schedule distribution for a long time, which is also strong evidence that the market is back on track.
The few pressures that come mainly from the outside right now.
"Fast 8" in 2017, "Avengers 4" in 2019... In fact, many of the May Day shows in the past were the world of imported films. After 2020, due to the gradual fading of imported films from the market, the presence of domestic films in May 1st has recovered.
This year, with the recovery of the imported film market, the May 1st file returned to the state of "ambush in the front, chasing soldiers later", and was firmly sandwiched by the three imported films of "Slam Dunk", "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" and "Fast 10".
Among them, "Slam Dunk" booked a hit seat the moment it was announced, and the box office trend was relatively clear after the pre-sale was opened, and the possibility of market performance equaling or even surpassing "Journey to the Bell Bud" is not impossible. Marvel's general trend is gone, but the third work in the "Silver Guard" series, which has always performed well in the mainland market, must also retain a certain basic plate. Finally, there is the most appetizing Chinese audience "Fast 10", you don't need to guess to know that this is a standard head blockbuster.
At present, these imported films are likely to squeeze the living space of the new May 1st films, and how high the upper limit of these three films is will determine how variable the May 1st file is this year. But on the other hand, if the quality of the May 1st film project is good enough, the popularity of these imported blockbusters can also be turned into a boost to the entire market, driving more new films to lift the market together.
As long as the quality of the project is good enough, whether it is a cold schedule or a crowded holiday, the market will always give the best feedback to a good movie. These heavy imported films are the opportunities and challenges that give the entire May 1st file.