To this day, there is only one real suspense left

August 14, 2023 | Total Issue 3327

This week (August 7~13), the mainland film market closed at 2.253 billion yuan, and "All or Nothing" earned 1.366 billion yuan in a single week, lightly winning the weekly championship.

The summer file is entering the closing stage, and the shining box office dark horse "Desperate" is riding the dust, and every day is approaching the current schedule champion "Disappearing Her".

Will the original championship title of "Disappearing Her" really be cut off by "Desperate"?

"All or Nothing" breaks the slow heat mode of the summer file

The cumulative box office of "All or Nothing" has exceeded 1.7 billion yuan. The film opened nationwide screening on August 5 (Saturday), earning 170 million yuan at the box office on the first day and 210 million yuan the next day. The results of the screening are so dazzling, some netizens think that "All or Nothing" squeezes the normal release of the film. As a result, the film side advanced the release schedule of "All or Nothing" originally scheduled for August 11 to August 8 (Tuesday). On the first day of the film's official release, it received a box office of 180 million yuan. After "All or Nothing" was released from the point to the official release, it set a box office record of more than 100 million yuan for 9 consecutive days.

Such a bold release result, only "Disappearing Her" in this summer's file can be compared with "Desperate". After the official release of "Disappearing Her" on June 22, it set a dazzling record of exceeding 100 million at the box office in a single day for 14 consecutive days. Maoyan Professional APP predicts that the total box office of "All or Nothing" will reach 3.7 billion yuan. "Disappearing Her" currently has a cumulative box office of 3.5 billion, which is already at the end of the release stage. From this point of view, "All or Nothing" does have the strength to win the title of summer championship.

The collective slow and hot route of blockbuster films is a prominent feature of this year's summer file. "In the Octagonal Cage" opened for screening on June 22, and received 21.98 million yuan on the first day. "Disappearing Her" was in full swing at the time of its peak sales, and the box office appeal of "In the Octagon" was not fully released.

The film team of "In the Octagonal Cage" thus implemented a 10-day ultra-long screening strategy, striving to fully ferment word of mouth. The film later became more courageous in the war and more courageous. On the first Saturday (July 8) after the official release of "Octagonal Cage", it even set a good result of 130 million yuan.

The box office performance of "Chang'an 30,000 Li" and "The First Part of Fengsheng" is also very slow and hot. These films were spread through word-of-mouth after their release, and the single-day box office of the film gradually climbed. In contrast, the box office of "All or Nothing" is a rush, why can it break the slow heat mode in the early days of the movie's release?

This should be attributed to the film's successful marketing on TikTok. From July 18 to August 7, "All or Nothing" has always been the topic champion in the new films to be released on the Douyin topic list, and the number of views of related videos is hundreds of millions of times every day. At the same time, the anti-fraud theme of the film is in line with the current social environment, and most audiences will have the same frequency resonance with the film.

"Megalodon 2" and "Heat" predict a decline at the box office

"Megalodon 2" and "Fever" were still seeded players with a total box office of more than 1 billion in the prediction of the Maoyan Professional Edition APP the week before (July 31 ~ August 6). After last week's market competition, the predicted total box office of both films has slipped below 1 billion yuan.

The box office forecast of the Maoyan Pro app is based on the film's market performance every day. Therefore, this estimate will be relatively high in the early stage of the film's release, and the box office performance of most films will show an explosive trend in the first week. After that, the popularity of the film decreases, and the estimated total box office data will also be lowered.

However, there are exceptions this year. For example, the box office performance of "The First Part of Fengshen First" was slightly lower in the early stage, and the total box office was predicted to have a low of 1.2 billion yuan. The film's subsequent upward box office performance prompted the total box office forecast to gradually increase to 2.5 billion yuan.

Summer masters are like Lin, and movie reputation and topicality are the magic weapon to achieve market breakthrough.

The current Douban score of "Megalodon 2" is 5.5, and it is unlikely to break through by word of mouth. The film belongs to a sci-fi adventure action film, with the star configuration of Jason Statham + Wu Jing, it has achieved a box office result of 600 million yuan.

The mainland performance of this Sino-US co-production has surpassed most Hollywood imports this year. For example, "Mission Impossible 7", the film quality is high, the reputation is good, and the Douban score is 7.8. The film's mainland box office only reported 340 million yuan, setting the lowest box office of a series in the mainland after "Mission Impossible 4".

"Warm" currently has a cumulative box office of 800 million yuan, and the film's box office failed to explode because the work did not achieve the topic of breaking the circle. "The First Part of Fengsheng" is a classic IP, "Chang'an 30,000 Li" has its own Tang poetry popularization attribute, and "Desperate Bet" fits the general environment of anti-fraud of the whole people. These topic advantages, "Heat" does not have.

Director Dapeng's previous work "Sewing Machine Band" was released on the National Day in 2017, and the total box office of the film in the mainland was 459 million yuan. It can be seen that music/song and dance films are still a short-board theme in the mainland market. The audience's recognition and attention to this type of theme is not high, even if the quality of the film is passable, it is relatively difficult to attract the attention of the whole people.

Domestic films are fiercely competitive, and imported films are so deserted that no one cares. "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Smash Bros." was released in the mainland on August 11 (Friday), the film belongs to a well-known IP, and the animated series accompanies the growth of the post-80s audience.

The film's box office on the first day was 1.73 million yuan, and the cumulative box office in the first week was 6.35 million yuan, and the chance of subsequent overturns is slim. The Maoyan Professional APP predicts that the total box office of "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Smash Bros." may fall at the level of 11.2 million yuan.

The commercial moves such as sequel movies and classic remasters that Hollywood studios have relied on for many years have been eclipsed this year. In contrast, the two non-sequel films "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" have been well received at the global box office.

Since the new century, the North American summer file has been the world of sequel movies. This year's Hollywood main products are still sequels such as "Indiana Jones 5", "Transformers 7" and "Mission Impossible 7", and the box office results are not satisfactory. If Hollywood does not increase its investment in the production of original films in the future, the decline will be difficult to reverse.

【Text/Cui Ting】