Rhino Entertainment Original
Editor|| Pu Fang
Since entering 2023, the recovery momentum of the entire entertainment market can be described as fierce.
The long-sluggish theatrical film market has recovered, and it is a strong rebound, and several Spring Festival movies have contributed a good share and trend; In the drama market, major video platforms have come up with works with circle-breaking influence in just one month, iQiyi's "Crazy" has become a phenomenal hit, Tencent Video's "Three-Body Problem", Youku's "Youth Song Xing" and Mango TV's "Go to a Windy Place" also performed well.
For the entertainment market, such a heat can be described as a long time away.
This also confirms many industry speculations about 2023, under the influence of internal and external effects, 2023 should become a "big year" for entertainment. And in the first month of the new year, this symphonic overture has already won a full house. Whether the industry can completely get out of the cold winter this year is unknown, but at least from the warm wind, you can smell the smell of spring.
January 2023, a good start
It should be considered that the overall recovery of the entertainment industry since January is a market recovery brought about by the objective environment, and it is also a tough battle for the upgrading of industry content.
It can be seen that whether it is a movie or a drama in the Spring Festival file, the characteristics of these two main categories are that they have run out of long-term performance, and 4 of the 6 theatrical movies have a box office reversal; The reputation and popularity of "Crazy" have gone all the way, with the Douban score reaching 9.1 points, TV ratings breaking 3, and iQiyi's popularity breaking 11,000.
Secondly, in addition to showing the trend of export monument conversion popularity, these works basically do not appear obvious popularity word-of-mouth inversion, which is different from the previous traffic-dominated market, which can also see that industry companies are also further adjusting to content-first To C thinking.
● Movies
In terms of movies, the monthly box office in January exceeded 10 billion, second only to the previous four February box office including the Spring Festival file, ranking fifth in the total monthly box office list. Among them, the Spring Festival file won a box office of about 6.8 billion in 6 days, and the box office exceeded 1 billion for 5 consecutive days, and still maintained a single-day box office trend of 300-700 million after the Spring Festival.
Source: Lighthouse Pro
Among them, "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" contributed 60% of the monthly box office, and the Douban scores of the two movies were 7.3 and 8.2 points, respectively, this word-of-mouth performance is basically consistent with the box office distribution, and the daily box office ranking is also very stable from the second day of junior high school. Behind this consumption model is an increasingly mature and rational market.
● Episodes
Or let's talk about word of mouth first, in January, the four popular dramas "Crazy", "Three-Body Problem", "Go to a Windy Place" and "Youth Song Xing" have Douban scores of 8.7 (the highest 9.1), 8.1, 8.4, and 7.7, respectively, and these four dramas are also basically firmly in the top four on professional lists such as Maoyan and Lighthouse, and their reputation and popularity are excellent.
In particular, "Crazy" was made by word of mouth a few days after it was broadcast, and in the second half it not only sat first in the online broadcast popularity list, but also unified the aesthetics of the audience on Taiwan Network on January 29 with eight sets of ratings breaking 3. According to Yunhe data, as of the end, the effective broadcast market share of "Crazy" soared to 60%, and many voices are already comparing this phenomenal series with "In the Name of the People".
Not only movies, but also in the drama market with a wider audience and diversified circles, word of mouth has also become a key yardstick for audiences to follow dramas. And compared with the two popular "The Beginning" and "The World" in January last year, the output efficiency of multiple popular films on all platforms also makes people have more confidence in long videos.
● Online movies, short dramas, etc
In addition to the two categories of movies and dramas, the huge traffic around the Spring Festival is also flowing to more content themes for the sinking market. Among them, the performance of online movies is also remarkable, and the five-part account of "Dragon Babu: The Legend of Qiao Feng", "Sniper King: Assassination", "Sniper: Reverse War", "Look Up and See Joy" and "Northeast Farewell to Tiantuan 2" was born.
In the field of short dramas, Youku's "Deadly Woman", Mango TV's "Wang Fu Soft Little Assassin", Tencent Video's "The Beginning of a Mountain" have become frequent guests in the industry's hot list, and iQiyi, which entered at the end of last year, also has a good popularity ranking "Little Maid of the Blind Young Master", and the cat's eye popularity value can reach about 7,000.
The increase in industry production capacity meets the gradually heating up mature market, which is a key benefit for the industry since last year, and will be further amplified in 2023. Behind these two key factors, a series of changes in the internal and external environment of the industry are driving a chain reaction.
Industry "uncertainty" is decreasing
The belief that 2023 will become a "big year" for entertainment is based on the grasp of this internal and external changes, and the industry heating up since January is a preliminary performance.
The most direct impact comes from the external environment. After the deregulation was lifted at the end of last year, it had a positive impact on the economic development of various industries, including not only the box office revenue of movies exceeded expectations during the Spring Festival, but also the cultural and tourism industry was benefited.
Taking offline performances as an example, according to the calculation of the China Performance Industry Association, there will be more than 9,400 commercial performances nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40.92% over 2022; The box office revenue was 378 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.85% over 2022, and the number of spectators was 3.238 million, and the box office and the number of spectators recovered to about 80% of 2019.
In addition, the industry is also receiving several policy benefits. Last year, the four departments jointly issued the "Notice on Expanding the Implementation Scope of the Phased Deferred Payment of Social Insurance Premiums Policy", which classified the "radio, television, film and sound recording production industry" as one of the particularly difficult industries, including Guangzhou, Fuzhou and other places, and also introduced industrial support funds and other incentive measures, showing an overall attitude of continuing to encourage development.
From the perspective of the industry, it is mainly reflected in the stronger output capacity of high-quality content. Since the end of 2021, video platforms have begun to seek the healthy development of breakeven, and put forward the overall requirements for cost reduction and efficiency increase, which has led to a series of huge changes on the supply side of the industry. Through the painful period, many positive effects are also manifesting.
The first is to further strengthen To C thinking, sort out the past production problems as a whole, and create content that the audience loves to watch, which makes many head dramas show stronger market appeal, that is, Tencent Video's so-called "white horse drama", several popular films in January this year are basically this kind of content, even the new generation of actors starring "Youth Song Xing", the production level is also quite affirmed.
The second is to promote the transformation of demand by industry companies under pressure. Including accounting dramas, micro-short dramas and other content forms, more professional companies and practitioners have poured in last year, which has become a good development, and a number of new content labels are also emerging around the content areas that these platforms focus on.
From a market perspective, this content production capacity has also become the key to enhancing market activity. Judging from the trend at the beginning of this year, users' willingness and ability to pay for good content are entering a growth period with the improvement of content recognition.
These factors are reducing the "uncertainty" of the industry in recent years. And this is what many people in the industry have dreamed of for three years. In the past three years, it is not uncommon for crews to shut down, theaters to stop, and companies to shut down, and production companies have tightened their belts. After the transition period of 2022, more practitioners are seeing hope in the new year.
Big rivers rise and small rivers overflow, and there is hope for 2023
For companies in many industries, overall losses have become the norm during the cold winter of the past few years.
But since last year, film and television stocks have shown a certain upward momentum, Choice data shows that from October 10, 2022 to January 12, 2023, the film and television index rose by 22.18%, and the index rose from about 1100 points to about 1500 points recently.
Around the Spring Festival, Huanxi Media, the producer of "Manjiang Hong", opened more than 14% higher in early trading on January 26, and the stock prices of A-share stocks such as China Film Shares, Huace Film and Television, Light Media, and Wanda Film all rose a few years ago. However, judging from the plunge in the stock price of the film and television sector after the Spring Festival, it is clear that it will take time to drive market confidence.
A number of brokerages have successively opened research on film and television companies. A recent research report by Huatai Securities said that with the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, in 2023, the box office of movies is expected to recover to the level of 780% in 2019, and the theater sector is estimated to still be near the profit and loss point; Referring to the pace of foreign recovery, the national box office is optimistic that it may recover to 48 billion yuan in 2023.
In addition to the listed companies at the head of the industry, it will also bring benefits to small and medium-sized companies. On the one hand, for companies and individuals with content capabilities, the market will bring more opportunities and demand; On the other hand, if the capital can be restored, it will also be a universal benefit to the entertainment industry.
And this year's subsequent high-quality content will increase the chips for practitioners.
Around the Spring Festival this year, a number of films have been announced successively, including "When the Wind Rises Again" and "Space Exploration Editorial Department", which have been concerned by fans for a long time, including "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back", Jackie Chan's new film "Dragon Horse Spirit", and "The King of the Long Sky", "Procurator Fengyun", "Life Road Unfamiliar" and other works announced to enter the May 1st file.
In terms of imported films, Marvel movies, which have been in the mainland market for four years, will bring "Black Panther 2", "Ant-Man and Wasp: Quantum Frenzy", and the DC movie "Thunder Shazam! Wrath of the Gods was also announced for March 17.
In terms of online video platforms, each company is entering a stage of healthy development. iQiyi has been operating profitably for three consecutive quarters, and the number of members returned to 100 million in the third quarter of last year; Tencent Video announced that its revenue for the whole year of 2022 exceeded 10 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, and it has been profitable since October; Youku has also narrowed losses for six consecutive quarters. Content upgrades are having a positive impact on the platform side.
The performance of dramas since this year proves the ability of each company to develop the head "white horse drama", and also makes people look forward to the subsequent platform content.
Among them, iQiyi has previewed the recently launched "Daming under the Microscope" and a number of IP dramas "Langya List 3", "Great Rivers 3", "Detective Chinatown 2", "Seven Times of Good Luck", etc.; Tencent Video has modern dramas such as "Public Prosecution Elite", "Good Things Become Pairs" and "The Sea of Dreams", as well as costume dramas such as "Jade Bone Yao", "With Phoenix Xing" and "Immortal Sword".
Youku has "Anle Chuan", "Long Moon Ember Ming" and live-action comic dramas such as "Under the Stranger"; Mango TV's "Da Song Youth Chronicle 2" and "My Human Fireworks" and other dramas have also attracted a lot of attention.
In the field of variety shows, in addition to "Annual Comedy Conference 3", "Riding the Wind and Waves 4", "Endless Sound Treasure Island Season", "This is Street Dance 6" and "Heartbeat Signal 6", these popular IPs are launched, Tencent Video's "Stage 2023", Youku's "Improv Comedy League", iQiyi's "Trend Hitchhiker's Guide" and Mango TV's "This Wave of Good 6" also have their own highlights.
This seems to be the closest time for the industry to come out of the cold winter in the past few years, and it is also an accelerated period that has passed the turning point, and in the face of the opportunities of the new year, I hope that platforms, industry companies and practitioners can go faster and further. The cold winter air conditioning, really fed up.