The upstream review | Red Beard: Make a little money or make a lot of money, decide life and death

A few years ago, at the time when TOP real estate developers held high the leverage of capital and omnipotent, Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke, said that their goal was to survive.

This week, at the time when the capital leverage of top real estate developers was broken and five lids could not cover ten pots, Yu Liang, chairman of Vanke, said that their goal was to make small money.

Vanke, which aimed to "survive" in previous years, is now one of the enterprises with the lowest asset-liability ratio in the real estate industry, whether they are facing the reversal of the real estate cycle or the regulation and control of macro policies, they have room for maneuver and leave strategic space for today's "making small money".

In fact, before that, the real estate industry was operating according to the logic of "making a lot of money".

As far as the real estate industry is concerned, in the early days of reform and opening up, the domestic per capita living area is less than 4 square meters, and the demand for improvement of living space, coupled with the demand for asset preservation and appreciation of the gradually rich Chinese, has superimposed in both directions, and for real estate developers, it is almost everywhere gold.

According to the words of Wang Jianlin, the former richest man, no matter what Tsinghua Peking University is, it is not as bold as it is. Therefore, all kinds of capital are flocking to it, whether the first bucket of gold was earned as a stonemason, or earned by making small accessories, if there is no real estate dream in your heart, do not step up to make a lot of money, it looks like missing the times, missing history, missing life.

In the real estate industry with low technical content and intensive funds, the secret to making a lot of money is high leverage, fast turnover, as long as the technique is fast, five lids and ten pots, and the use of magic-like financial skills, there is no problem.

But the premise is that the industry cycle curve has been upwards, and the macro policy environment has remained unchanged.

The first person in the real estate industry to fly the pot lid was Wang Jianlin, but Lao Wang saw that the situation was not right, immediately retreated, playfully sold assets to reduce leverage, and finally landed safely.

After Lao Wang, in the past few years, with the continuous pressure of the macro-control of housing and not speculation, the real estate developers who were once immersed in the pleasure of leverage began to fall down in a string, until Evergrande could not cover the pot now.

Countless real estate developers have seized the opportunity of an era, but they have not been able to win the world they want in their twilight years.

Also this week, several special road to the same news shows that the real estate developers who have been running all the way have finally looked at "small money": Xu Jiayin said that in the next ten years, no longer take land, to sell existing houses, you know, selling existing houses means that the leverage of capital cannot be too high, and it needs to be refined; at the same time, Wang Jianlin After several years of deleveraging, one of the key tracks now is commercial management, and the news shows that Wanda Commercial Management intends to be listed in Hong Kong, and the way to make money in commercial management is also refined farming, and it is necessary to serve a good business. Let small money become big money through the scale effect; and the "small money" in Yu Liang's mouth is how to win new markets in the era of real estate stock, through real estate peripheral services such as property and logistics, and these markets are small money compared to selling houses.

As far as the current various markets, including real estate, have basically entered an era of full competition, and behind the full competition, is the change of market logic, the core of which is based on technology-based data, data-based algorithms, algorithm-based intelligence, intelligent products and services, in this new business link, the need for the implantation of technical genes, the awakening of intensive cultivation consciousness, rather than simple leverage financial skills, otherwise, even if you enter the blue ocean, you still just take a bamboo basket, Even if you can scoop up the water of the entire ocean, you can't send it ashore.

And these small money, is not leveraged can be leveraged, which requires giving up the "fast money, big money, short money" thinking, calmly earn "slow money, small money, long money".

But this is very difficult, the difficulty is how to sink, how to refine, in essence, is to achieve the ultimate in the era of full competition, and in front of the extreme, all the red ocean is a blue ocean.

In this sense, whether it is Wanda or HNA, whether it is Evergrande or the next one, the essence of the problem is not the problem of money on the statement, but the problem of "big money" and "small money", and the trade-off between them is related to life and death.

Author: Zhang Hao