This article, on National Day, read and read.
It's like a "typical value investor" review invited by a smart investor to do an offline study club: this is the best article I have read this year.
Can't agree more!
It not only has the correct concept, but also has the research mentality and research practice of integrating knowledge and action, the original and clean source, and completely presents the appearance of "knowledge compound interest".
This is the first prize of the first Value Investment Essay Contest sponsored by Munger College and with smart investors as participants.
The article is triggered by a precious historical material - Buffett's 1962 position statement, the author analyzes the companies involved in the table and the background and situation of investment at that time, and more truly shows the investment style and operation mode of Buffett who was covered up by today's "stock gods".
After reading it, imagine this: if you got this position statement, what could you think of? What will you do? What can you learn?
We can see a super brilliant investor, his evolutionary beginning. Examining that process, how to understand, how to learn, rather than simply replicating, is particularly meaningful to us today.
The author, Wei Wen, is a tireless learner on the road to value investing. This article is worth perusing and collecting.
Share it with everyone, I hope to have the same sense of gain as we do.
Chen Weiwen/Wen
Investment can't get around Buffett, there are estimated to be hundreds and ten books related to him, and there are countless articles, what else do you not know?
I wanted to write a tidbits about Buffett and introduce some of his lesser-known but interesting places.
I was preparing materials intensely, and one night I received a picture from a friend who loves investment as follows:
It took a lot of effort to see from the dense English and numbers that this was Buffett Partnership Ltd. Details of holdings as at 31 December 1962.
At first, I was not entirely sure, but it was difficult to recognize English handwriting. Even if you can see it clearly, such as BCP, LNC, TNP, but you are not familiar with these companies and cannot contact Buffett's positions. The signature in the lower right corner is not recognized, how can you confirm that this is the investment of the stock god?
I can only find out Buffett's letter to his partners during the time of 1962, hoping that there are some places that can be corrected. There are four letters related to that time, all of which mention the company Dempster Mill Manufacturing Company, and then compared to this picture, haha found it! 44,177 shares, Dempster $51.26 per share, the amount is $2,264,513.02, exactly the same as the number on the partner's letter.
Alerted by a friend, Berkshire was identified: 30,952 shares, 7 and 9/16 each, for $234,074.5.
So confidence in this heavenly picture has increased, and interest in cracking Buffett's position has also increased. The next few nights were spent mostly in front of the computer and desk lamp.
At the time Buffett was 32 years old and a millionaire.
Some friends around me feel that they should learn the investment ideas of the stock god at this time, in the early years, he did not manage so much money, and he was just starting, and there were more places to learn from than now.
Buffett himself has said on different occasions that if time goes back to the past and manages millions of funds, the yield will be better.
So let's go back 60 years and see what Buffett did in 1962.
Warren Buffett in 1962
Buffett was interviewed in 1962
After less than two years at Graham's fund company, Graham-Newman Corporation, the teacher decided to retire, and Buffett returned to his hometown of Omaha to start working from home for seven years. From raising funds to communicating with customers, from screening targets to filling out tax forms, he picks everything on his shoulders.
The scale of management ranged from $105,100 in 1956 with three partner accounts to more than $7 million in net assets of the partnership fund in early 1962, 11 accounts, and nearly 100 investors.
At this time, he moved his office from the second floor of his home to Kiewit Plaza, and has been working in this building ever since.
On January 1, 1962, Buffett merged all partnership accounts into one, changing the name from Buffett Associates to Buffett Partnership Ltd, and the new name, new address, new phone and new team can be seen on the letterhead below.
The letterhead of a letter to partners written by Buffett in January 1962
This year, the market has undergone drastic changes, which can be regarded as a scene of ups and downs in those "boiling years". (The cover of the Chinese edition of the book of the same name in 2006 reads: "In the 60s of the 20th century, the US stock market soared, crashing and rising for 10 years!") )
"The Boiling Years" cover of the 2006 CITIC Edition
Elvis was still there, Monroe was gone, and President Kennedy, who was assassinated a year later, was busy dealing with the Cuban Missile Crisis, the biggest threat to the United States since World War II.
At that time, the Soviet Union prepared to deploy nuclear warheads in Cuba in response to the installation of American missiles in Italy and Turkey. At the end of October of the same year, the United States and the Soviet Union reconciled and the missile crisis was resolved, but the two countries continued to wrestle in space and Vietnam.
At that time, the stock price of IBM, a growth stock bull, had been cut in half, the price of small-capitalization concept stocks fell by 90%, and the new company fell below the issue price after speculation (Note 1) (Does it feel familiar?) )。
Buffett did not mention a word about these in the letter, only said lightly that "the Dow Jones index fell from 731 points at the beginning of the year, the lowest point in the middle of the year to 535 points, and the end of the year closed at 652 points."
In June, when the index was almost the lowest of the year, Buffett gave an interview, and when asked how he should view market volatility, he was calm and relaxed in his thirties. This is the earliest video material on which he can be found (Note 2), and the photo above is from a screenshot of that interview.
In the bear market of 1962, he achieved a return of 14%, a big outbeat of the market. How is this done? One of Buffett's frequent sayings is "Don't listen to what I say, but see what I do", so let's look at his holdings back then.
Positions held in 1962
This statement of holdings first appeared in Andrew Kilpatrick's book Of Permanent Value: The Story of Warren Buffett, compiled by Andrew Kilpatrick.
The book is very informative, weighing 4.2 kg in English in 2020, which is physically challenging to read and translated. Previously, there were annual updates, but now they are temporarily interrupted due to the epidemic.
The image has since been posted on various blogs, Twitter and Reddit, with bloggers Bovinebear and SDINVEST doing a good analysis of some of the companies. Thanks to J.C. and the other Buffett enthusiasts, I couldn't identify and identify these companies without your help.
Known annotations are as follows:
When the authenticity of this shareholding statement was confirmed, I first exclaimed, "This is actually a person's workload"! What a dedication, love, and even sacrifice it takes. Even the most demanding investors are likely to be pleased to see this position and performance.
At that time, Buffett's fund had more than $9 million under management and invested in 54 companies, 4 of which were short. You must know that Berkshire now invests hundreds of billions of stocks, that is, holds about 50 companies and has no short positions.
So, how did Buffett invest in so many companies in 1962, and we are familiar with "concentrate on investment, not short"?
We often start by reading his letters to investors. In his letters from 1957 to 1962 he referred to only three companies: Commonwealth Trust Co. in his February 1959 letter, Sanborn Map (January 1961), and Dempster Farm Machinery (mentioned in four letters in 1962).
All three companies have been thoroughly archaerated by Buffett fans, and are described in detail in his two biographies and some books.
Coupled with Buffett's subsequent advocacy of concentrated investment, long-term investment, and "20 holes", etc., it will give the impression that the number of companies he holds will not be too large.
When I looked back at the letter with doubts, some of the things I had previously ignored were re-noticed. In fact, in his 1962 letter, Buffett informed him of more than 40 companies at the beginning of the year and a short position of $340,000 at the end of the year.
Considering the decline in the overall market this year, it is estimated that he became "greedy when others are afraid" again and bought some new companies. The stock god did not hide it, or he did not see it carefully.
Among all investment masters, the information about Buffett should be the most comprehensive, including shareholder letters, shareholder meeting questions and answers, interviews, speeches, articles, books, position records, etc., the time span is also the longest, and many places can be cross-verified.
At the same time, his honesty of knowledge and the cherishment of reputation also make us most at ease when reading what he wrote. In his '62 letter, Buffett categorized his investments into three types for the first time:
The first category is "control". In such companies, he has a controlling stake and can promote and even decide on corporate decisions that benefit shareholders, such as dividends, buybacks, liquidations, etc.
The three classic cases (United Trust, Sandborn Maps and Dempster) fall into this category: they first bought because they were cheap, then continued to buy and became major shareholders, then entered the board of directors and even achieved control. However, control does not equal long-term investment, and it will be sold later.
The second type of "arbitrage". Opportunities are mainly from company sales, mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, spin-offs, etc. Buffett makes 10-15 arbitrages per year, because the certainty is relatively high, he will consider borrowing a part of the money (no more than 25% of the total position) to operate. At that time, there were many arbitrage opportunities in the acquisition process of large integrated oil companies.
The third category is "underestimated". Because buy cheaply, sell after the stock price rises. At that time, Buffett basically sold such positions by 50%, and then continued to find another one.
The first two types of investments are often unaffected by market trends, which helps the fund outperform the index. Looking back at the market environment at that time, his position may be close to the optimal solution. Let's take a closer look at these three types of companies.
(i) "Control" category: those who have not come after Denpster
In the 1962 shareholding list, the largest stock (21%) was Dempster, which was founded in 1878 and mainly produced windmills and pumps for irrigation. Later, with the wide coverage of the power grid, the advantages of electric pumps became more and more obvious, the company's main business declined year by year, the stock was ignored, and the stock price was far lower than the asset value.
Buffett began buying in 1956, joined the board a year later, and by August 1961 held 73 percent of the shares, a proper majority shareholder.
But Buffett and the original management could not agree on many issues. In 1962, Munger introduced a fierce man, Harry Bottle (1919-2013), as the new president.
Harry Botel in his later years
Harry was a World War II veteran and ran an accounting firm after demobilization. After being entrusted with a heavy responsibility, he immediately began a series of drastic actions, such as clearing inventory, paying off debts, cutting expenses, closing the company (closing five unprofitable branches and keeping three), and laying off redundant employees, so that the balance sheet structure of the enterprise has undergone great changes and the company's valuation has been significantly improved.
Detailed data is shown in the table below (Source: Buffett's letter to partners. ）
Buffett never hesitated to praise Harry, comparing him to a hero and saying that he would be asked for help in a similar situation. But the next time Harry appears in Buffett's letter will be 24 years later.
Not because Harry is unavailable or that something is wrong between the two, but because Buffett has avoided this type of "control" investment opportunity that requires intervention in corporate governance.
Dempster's investment turned out to be good (an average purchase price of $28 per share and then sold for $80, making a total profit of $2.3 million), but the process of realizing the value did not go smoothly.
The firing of the former president gave Buffett a headache, and Harry's reduction and efficiency improvement were strongly resisted by the original management, local residents and the media.
At that time, the whole town looked at Buffett with hatred, believing that he was a black-hearted capitalist, a ruthless liquidator, and launched actions such as fundraising for the factory. Wrgo Buffett, who cherishes feathers, feels very wronged, thinking that without him, the company would have gone bankrupt long ago, but no one bought it.
Relevant reports published in newspapers at the time
If Buffett continues to play according to Dempster's style, it is estimated that his reputation is not much better than those "financial predators" and "wolves of Wall Street" who pursue active investment.
But the stock god took a different path: buy the good company at a reasonable price, while promising not to sell the acquired company except in special circumstances, and to retain the original management. All of this may be related to Buffett's painful experience this time.
For him, Dempster is a man of no other.
(ii) "Arbitrage": TNP and oil companies
This craft comes from Graham himself. When Buffett first joined the company, he looked at all the arbitrage operations of the funds managed by the teacher from 1926 to the 50s, and found that the arbitrage return rate is highly certain, and it is not easily affected by macro and market, and if the trading time is controllable, the annualized return can surpass the index.
TNP, full name Texas National Petroleum, announced in April 1962 that it would be acquired by Union Oil of California, and the offer price was higher than the market price, and there was an arbitrage opportunity.
Buffett immediately bought TNP's bonds, common stock and warrants, ending the year with a total position of $561,333, or 6% of the partnership fund, ranking fourth. The investment was detailed in the appendix to the 1964 partnership letter.
M&A arbitrage generally has two major uncertainties: 1) whether the transaction can be approved; 2) The transaction completion time is uncertain.
Completion of the merger requires tripartite approval from the acquiree, the acquirer and the regulator. 40% of the management of TNP, the acquiree; The acquirer, California United Oil, has been buying and buying in the past; At that time, there were many mergers and acquisitions of this type, and the problems of regulations and supervision were not big.
This removes the first uncertainty, and the merger can be approved.
The TNP investment was completed within five months from the announcement to the closing of the final transaction, although there were some tax setbacks, with an annualized return on investment of 22%, and the Dow fell 10% over the same period.
After the formal establishment of OPEC led by the Middle East in 1960, the oil industry was brewing great changes. There were many acquisitions and restructurings of oil and gas companies in the Midwest at the time. Buffett carefully reads newspapers and oil and gas-related industry magazines every day, diligently looking for investment opportunities.
He only started arbitrage operations after the company's public announcement, and never made investment decisions based on grapevine. Many of the oil companies in the shareholding list (Getty Oil, Houston Oil, Maracaibo Oil, No. European Oil and Plymouth Oil) are estimated to fall into this category.
The stock god is familiar with arbitrage and is not tired of it. This year, he also added a position in Blizzard because Activision Blizzard will be acquired by Microsoft, so let's wait and see the final result of this arbitrage.
"Without him, only skillful and skillful."
(iii) "Undervalued" companies
The "undervalued" companies on the breakdown of holdings are distributed in a variety of industries: coal, railways, real estate, manufacturing, etc., mainly in the United States, but also several Canadian companies.
For various reasons, such as stagnant sales, lawsuits, and hopeless prospects, the company's transaction price is far from reflecting its intrinsic value, and some are even lower than the liquidation value.
These companies are obviously not hot companies, and no one will actively tell you that no one will actively tell you. Buffett followed the method Graham taught, working day and night to discover these cigarette butts by flipping through the Moody's Manual and so on. Here are some company profiles.
Alco: Full name American Locomotive Company, founded in 1872, mainly produces locomotives, sales decline year by year. At the end of 1962, Buffett held 4,800 shares at $19.875 per share, for a total of $95,400, or 1% of the partnership fund.
In the first edition of Securities Analysis, Graham wrote that the company's stock price was lower than cash per share.3 Good Student Buffett knew that "the book has its own golden house."
BCP: Full name British Columbia Power, this is a Canadian company that has been fighting a lawsuit with the local government for several years over the purchase price of the subsidiary.
Munger, who has extensive legal expertise, is very optimistic about this opportunity, and not only raised 3 million yuan to buy it himself, but also recommended it to Buffett, who saw it at first sight (Note 4).
Since meeting in 1959, the two have often exchanged investment experiences. Buffett ended the year holding 60,035 BCP shares at $18.375 each, accounting for 11% of the partnership fund, making it the second most heavily positioned. It shows the mutual trust between them!
Berkshire: This is what came to be known as Berkshire. It was first discovered by friend Daniel Cowin. Daniel works for a small brokerage firm in New York called Hettleman, which specializes in investing in multi-million dollar companies (note 5).
There are several friends like this, including Bill Ruane (introducing Fisher to Buffett) (note 6), Sandy Gottesman, and so on.
Everyone is either college classmates or Graham's students, with similar ideas, sharing with each other and common prosperity. Buffett first bought Berkshire in November 1962 at $7.5625 a share (think today's stock price), and continued to buy for the next two years, from "undervalued" to "controlled."
But instead of becoming a copy of previous companies like Dempster, Berkshire embarked on a completely different path and became a legend in the investing world.
BS&B: Black, Sivalls & Bryson, Inc. manufactures equipment for the oil and gas and chemical industries. Net net assets per share (net-net: current assets less all liabilities) of $24.25 at the end of 1961 and owned real estate in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. Buffett holds 13,353 shares of the company at $13.31 per share, with a margin of safety.
Crane: Manufactures pipe and valve products, which still exist today, and the stock symbol is CR. Buffett holds 4,850 shares at $42.25 per share, for a total of $204,912.5, or 2% of the partnership fund.
Grinnel: Mainly produces fire sprinklers and alarms. Because of antitrust, the government and Grinnel lawsuits went all the way to the Supreme Court, and the company eventually lost the case and was asked to spin off ADT and two other subsidiaries.
Buffett holds 3,727.48 shares of Grinnel at $74.50 each, for a total of $277,697.26, or 2.8% of the partnership fund. In the third and fourth editions of Securities Analysis, Graham provides a more detailed introduction to Grinnel (note 7).
LehCoal & Nav: The full name is Lehigh Coal & Navigation Company, as the name implies, there are two businesses: coal mine and railway. The mine has been losing money, the railroad is leased to another company to operate, and a large part of the lessee's business is to transport coal for the lessor's loss-making mine. The company was reorganized in 1962 and is described in the second edition of Securities Analysis (Note 8).
Stanrock: Stanrock Uranium Ltd. is a Canadian uranium mining company. The uranium industry was hit hard and mining companies, including Stanrock, went bankrupt. Buffett may have seen an opportunity in the liquidation of his assets and bought bonds at a low price of $496,260, or 5 percent of the partnership fund.
YoungSpring & Wire Corp.: Manufactures automotive springs and electronic components, and has lost money for the past two years that has led to a depressed stock price. The company is debt-free and has net assets per share of $48.36. Buffett's holdings average $25.5, totaling 19,165 shares and $488,707, representing 5% of the partnership fund. This company is mentioned in the fourth edition of Securities Analysis (Note 9).
……
Walter Schloss (1916-2012), also a disciple of Graham, focused on these undervalued opportunities, often buying dozens of companies to diversify and then patiently waiting.
Graham writes that this often takes "a year and a half to two and a half years" (note 10). To repay the favors he had previously owed on Dempster, Buffett sold his shares in five companies to Schloss at current prices, including Jeddo-Highland Coal, Merchants National Properties, Vermont Marble, and Genessee & Wyoming Railroad.
Schloss's fund returned 11% in 1962, also outperforming the market, suggesting that Graham's approach worked very well at the time. The books "Security Analysis" and "The Intelligent Investor" feel like a stock pool for Graham's disciples.
However, this undervalued company became increasingly difficult to find, which helped me understand Buffett's choice of investment targets in the mid-to-late sixties and the eventual decision to dissolve the partnership fund.
In addition to the anger caused by the difference of 0.125 yuan per share (Note 12), it is estimated that the stock god is also closely related to the investment environment and investment opportunities at that time.
(iv) Going short
In addition to control, arbitrage, and undervaluation, Buffett shorted four companies in 1962, three of which were insurance companies.
INA was the predecessor of the now household name CIGNA, and the company Hartford Fire still exists, and the name was simplified to Hartford after broadening the lines of business. Buffett believes that the stock prices of all three companies were expensive at the time.
Another shorted company, Kratter, which deals in real estate, felt that its financial statements were problematic, inflating profits and driving up valuations, and submitted an article to Barron's, which appeared on page 12 of the December 24, 1962 issue. However, both Buffett and Munger later stayed away from shorting.
(v) Bill Scott
Scott and Mrs
The signatory of the statement, Bill Scott, was the first employee hired by the Buffett Partnership Fund. Bill previously worked at U.S. National Bank, and signed up for Buffett's evening investment class because he saw an article published in the Commercial & Financial Chronicle.
The two often talked about stocks, and while chatting about Bill, he went to work at Buffett, first to help deal with Dempst's inventory, and later to take charge of bond investments.
Bill and his wife's names also appear frequently in Buffett's letters to investors, and in addition to praising Bill's work, the most mentioned is that they invest all the family's money in partnership funds.
This also proved to be very sensible.
Less than a month younger than Buffett, Bill is 92 years old and retired in his sixties. Investing in Berkshire made him a billionaire, and the couple signed a pledge to donate all their fortune to charity.
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There are still many places worth interpreting about this shareholding list, and the space is limited, so it will be temporarily concluded. For me, one of the greatest values of this detail is that it restores the true position of the stock god in 1962, and adds a lot of information based on history.
Through his investment in these companies, Buffett laid an extremely solid foundation, completed capital accumulation for Berkshire's major shareholder, made a group of like-minded friends, and gradually evolved his investment philosophy in practice, eventually becoming a generation of grandmasters.
From 1962 to the present, it has changed and remained unchanged
In 1962, Munger came out of the original law firm to set up an investment partnership, and bought BCP with full leverage and annual return of 30%.
That year, Buffett visited Fisher in Los Angeles, similar to the GEICO trip more than a decade earlier.13 Previously, Fisher's famous book Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings had been published in 1958.
That year, the fourth edition of Securities Analysis was launched, and it was also the last edition revised by Graham himself, which was very helpful for understanding the market and companies at that time. Three years later, the third edition of The Smart Investor was completed. If you compare carefully, you can find that Buffett's writing style at that time and the teacher's two books are very similar in some places.
Buffett's shareholding philosophy in 1962 was even more obviously a mentor from Graham, but since then he has not been limited by the existing framework and broken into a butterfly. There are indeed influences from Munger and Fisher, but more from his own tireless learning and deep understanding of value.
Subsequently, he bought American Express in 1963, National Indemity, the first insurance company, in 1967, and See's Candy in 1972...
Buffett abides by both principles and keeps pace with the times, gradually shifting from emphasizing quantitative analysis to focusing on qualitative analysis at the same time, from calculating the liquidation value of assets to focusing on corporate profitability (earning power), from focusing on tangible assets to valuing intangible assets, from timely pocketing to practicing long-term investment.
If you compare Buffett's 1962 stake with Berkshire's latest 13F, it's hard to believe that it came from the same person. His changes are amazing, his diligence, openness and optimism are admirable.
Amazing focus and enterprising have allowed Buffett to surpass his teacher, Graham. The broad horizon, pattern and circle of friends did not make him another Schloss. At the same time, he has enough patience to engrave "no loss" in his bones, and was able to avoid Waterloo in the final battle of some investment masters of the same era.
From 1962 to 2022, Buffett has added another skill. Whether you like Warren Buffett in his thirties or later as a stock god, there's always something new to be gained by spending time getting to know him and his investments. Buffett's wisdom is not limited to stock investing, he has so much to learn:
- Learn his adherence to the margin of safety and the circle of competence, and his aversion to permanent loss of capital, always remembering that the first and second principles of investment are "never lose money";
——Learn his ability to continuously accumulate knowledge and form compound interest. From selling Coke bottled soda to neighbors at the age of 7 to buying a large number of Coke shares when he was almost 60 years old, and then not selling a single share.
From buying three shares of Cities Service preferred stock at the age of 11 (note 14) to taking a heavy position in Occidental at the age of 92 (Occidental bought Cities Service in 1983 for $3.8 billion).
From the first research on GEICO at the age of 20 to the age of 65, he bought all GEICO and created what may be the strongest insurance group in the universe... His interest and understanding of the insurance, newspaper, railways and other industries lasted throughout his life;
- Learn his ability to choose friends and be honest with them. The trust and understanding between him and Munger is touching, and they crack the code of longevity and wealth;
——Learn from his spirit of preaching to the world to solve confusion and selflessly share, and teach people to fish and also teach them to fish;
- Also learn his attitude in the face of difficulties.
In the biography "Snowball" there is such a story (note 15), which is borrowed here to close:
In 1962, Buffett went to New York to raise capital, and the market downturn was an opportunity to buy. He also plans to develop his neighbor, Don Keough, who will soon be president of Coke and Coke, into his fund client.
At first, he told Keough that he only needed to invest $25,000, but he did not agree. Then Buffett lowered the investment to $10,000, $5,000, and finally even considered whether to go down to $2,500.
The last time Buffett visited the Keaws, no matter how much he rang the doorbell or knocked, no one answered. But he was pretty sure there was someone in the other family.
The lacquered house expressed the rejection of the other party.
It was the night of June 21, 1962, and the stock market was near its lowest point of the year, and Buffett remembered that moment vividly.
I think everyone probably has such a dark moment. Buffett was already worth millions at that time, and his career was still successful, not to mention us on the road.
——End of full text——
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注释1: The Intelligent Investor 1965 Edition: p99, Growth Stocks and the Defensive Investor; p122, New Common-Stock Oferings.
Note 2: Video link:
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1qq4y1y7nJ?spm_id_from=333.337.search-card.all.click&vd_source=b8a0c98fdaa45445a1cc1be3d75ccb7d
注释3:Security Analysis ,1934 Edition p673, Note 43.
注释4: The Snowball ,p254, Haystacks of Gold.
注释5:The Snowball, p219, Hidden Splendor.
注释6:The Snowball ,p867, Notes.
注释7:Security Analysis (1951), p487, The Valuation of Common Stocks; Security Analysis (1962), p692, Frequency of Opportunities in Secondary Companies .
注释8：Security Analysis (1940). p443, Analysis of the Income Account.
注释9: Security Analysis (1962). p469, Projections of Earnings and Dividends, Earning Power
注释10:The Intelligent Investor (The classic 1949 Edition reprint), p39 Market Fluctuations in Individual Stocks.
注释11:The Snowball .p246, The Windmill War.
Footnote 12: The Snowball p273, Folly
注释13:2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, Q19 Remembering Phil Fisher.
Note 14: Five of the six editions of Securities Analysis are interesting to introduce Cities Service, either short or short. Only the fifth edition does not. The fifth and only edition is not a revision by Graham.
注释15:The Snowball ,p16, Sun Valley.
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