Per reporter: Li Menglin Zheng Yuhang Per editor: Gao Han
After Johnson announced his withdrawal from the race on October 23, the outcome of the battle for prime minister gradually became clear, and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak was one step away from a final victory.
According to the latest BBC count, out of 357 Conservative MPs, Sunak has garnered 155 support, meeting the 100-vote threshold for entry, while another potential contender, Conservative leader Penny Mordaunt in the House of Commons, has received only 25 public support. Betting odds show that Sunak has a nearly 80% chance of being prime minister.
Sunak, a Stanford MBA, is highly specialized in economic policy and has a relatively robust policy stance on taxation and government public spending. After Truss's poor tax cut plan caused chaos in financial markets, the prospect of Sunak's election was clearly welcomed by markets. In early Asian trading on the 24th, the pound rose 1% against the US dollar at one point; British government bonds rose sharply at the opening of the 24th, and the main British stock index FTSE 100 index also opened higher.
For Johnson's withdrawal, Ding Donghan, a researcher at the Center for British Studies at Shanghai Chinese University, bluntly told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the probability of Johnson becoming prime minister again is not large, "Johnson is very shrewd, the current dilemma in the UK is difficult to solve, and he can't come up with any good remedy." ”
According to the Conservative Party's election process, if after the deadline before 2 p.m. local time on the 24th (21 o'clock Beijing time), only Sunak meets the criteria supported by more than 100 MPs, he will become the leader of the party and succeed Truss as prime minister. But if Mordaunt can win over Johnson's supporters at the last minute and thus meet the 100-man criteria, Conservative Party members will vote, and the final results will be announced this Friday (October 28).
If Sunak is elected, he will become the first Indian prime minister in British history and the third prime minister of the United Kingdom this year.
Sunak Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Sunak won the most, and the pound rose and retreated
"Under my leadership, integrity, professionalism and accountability will be reflected at every level of government, and I will work day in and day out to get the mission done," said 42-year-old Rishi Sunak on Twitter on October 23, local time, quietly announcing his candidacy for Conservative Party leader and prime minister.
After Johnson's withdrawal, the remaining opponent, House of Commons Conservative leader Penny Mordaunt, had just 25 MPs with public support, although Mordaunt said he was "confident" in his support numbers.
Based on betting data site bettingodds.com a combination of odds for six betting sites, Sunak has a 77.8% chance of being the next British prime minister, compared to Mordaunt's 3.8%.
Sunak's integrity, professionalism and responsibility can be described as the pain point of the Conservative Party. Johnson stepped down precisely because of the integrity issues questioned in the "partygate" and party whip appointments during the lockdown, and the direct reason for Truss' step down in just six weeks was the turmoil caused by the rash tax cut plan.
Sunak is also confident that these points are his strengths. In July, Sunak resigned first after criticizing Johnson's government for failing to work "properly, competently, and seriously," triggering a wave of resignations from government officials that eventually led to Johnson's ouster and boost his political reputation.
Sunak's professional resume in economic affairs is also favored by the outside world. He worked at Goldman Sachs and earned an MBA from Stanford. After being appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer by Johnson in 2020, Sunak led the implementation of the British government's relief policy during the new crown epidemic and established a steady and practical image.
In a race with Truss for the prime minister this summer, Sunak was relentless in criticizing Truss's plan to cut taxes for economic growth as "fairytale economics," warning that such a policy would cause problems in Britain's public finances and trigger a negative reaction from financial markets. Subsequent developments confirmed Sunak's prophecy.
"I have a track record of achieving results and a clear plan to solve the biggest problems we face," Sunak said in a statement, "and I will repair the economy, unite our party, and deliver on my promises to our country."
Sunak has not released details of his "clear plan," but during his last campaign for prime minister, he promised to wait until inflation was "contained" before cutting taxes, seen as having a deeper understanding of maintaining the stability of public finances. During his tenure as Chancellor of the Exchequer, he planned to raise the corporate tax rate from 19 per cent to 25 per cent and maintain the base rate of income tax at 20 per cent. These policies were abolished by Truss and then had to be reinstated under external pressure.
Sunak has also been cautious when he was chancellor of the exchequer, rejecting Johnson's request for more spending. The New York Times analyzed that if he becomes prime minister, he may work with the current chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, to cut government spending. In fact, Hunter wrote in support of Sunak immediately after Johnson announced his withdrawal, arguing that Sunak would "turn the wrong page and make decisions in the national interest to rebuild the enormous potential of our economy."
Financial markets reacted positively to Sunak's election prospects. In early Asian trading on the 24th, the pound rose 1% against the US dollar, rising above 1.14, and then narrowed its gains. British gilts rose sharply at the opening of the 24th, and the yield of British 10-year government bonds fell more than 20 basis points at 3.9600% before rebounding; The FTSE 100 rose 0.74% to 6918.10.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
But the dust has not yet settled, and the biggest uncertainty now is whether Mordaunt can get the support of Johnson's faction lawmakers at the last minute, after all, Sunak's resignation is seen by many as a "stab in the back". It is reported that the Mordaunt team has contacted Johnson's team on the morning of October 23, although the results of the negotiations are unknown to the outside world.
In addition to the disinformation within the party, Sunak's personal background is too elite, his family wealth is huge, and he is regarded as "ungrounded" by many grassroots conservative party members, which is also one of his disadvantages. Sunak's wife, Akshata Murti, the daughter of India's super-rich, has caused controversy over her "non-British tax domiciled" status to avoid paying taxes in the UK, which is also a shadow over Sunak's political prospects.
Johnson: For the sake of national and party unity, foreign media: retreat in spite of difficulties
Johnson announced on October 23 local time that although he had the support of Conservative MPs, he finally gave up running for Conservative leader because he failed to persuade rival former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak or another current leader of the House of Commons of the British Parliament Penny Mordaunt to come together "for the national interest". Johnson said he had the support of 102 MPs, exceeding the threshold of 100 for a bid for party leadership, but he realised Britain and the Conservatives needed to unite.
"I believe I can offer a lot, but I'm afraid it's simply not the right time," Johnson said.
Regarding Johnson's withdrawal, Ding Donghan, a researcher at the Center for British Studies at Shanghai Chinese University, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter bluntly, "Johnson is very shrewd, the current dilemma in the UK is difficult to solve, and he can't come up with any good remedy, I personally think that the probability of Johnson becoming prime minister again is not likely." ”
Xu Xiaohong, an expert on British issues at the School of International Relations and a visiting scholar at Oxford University, also pointed out in response to the comments of the Daily Economic News reporter that for the Conservative Party, it is obviously a less serious matter to oust Johnson before and select him again in just three months.
Notably, Johnson insisted in Sunday's statement that he was "fully capable of a Conservative victory in the next general election" and said he was likely to win votes cast by Conservative members for his rivals.
However, foreign media did not buy Johnson's "withdrawal statement".
According to the Guardian, many political observers and Conservative MPs are deeply skeptical of Johnson's claim that he has the support of 102 MPs, as less than half of those 102 MPs have publicly expressed their support.
The Guardian commented that "despite Johnson's repeated use of modest language about his ambitions to lead power, it is abundantly clear that he will only drop out of the race if he believes he cannot win the race." ”
According to the Associated Press, Johnson's willingness to return has plunged the already divided Conservative Party into further turmoil. He led the Conservatives to a historic victory in the 2019 general election, but his premiership has been shrouded in money and moral scandals.
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, told The Associated Press that voters have not forgotten Johnson's many scandals, so he no longer has the appeal he once had. "We know the public doesn't like him, he doesn't have the ability to govern and can't unify his party. [His return to power] would be a disaster. ”
In addition, CNN analysis said that for the Conservative Party, if Johnson wants to confront former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak, who has announced his candidacy for party leadership, this may lead to a further split in the party. On the one hand, it is because some of Johnson's supporters are more repulsive to Sunak, believing that Sunak's resignation in July this year led to the collapse of Johnson's government and Johnson's ouster. On the other hand, the view of Johnson within the Conservative Party is also polarized, with supporters of him supporting him and opponents even threatening to switch to other opposition parties if he wants to return.
In addition, according to the British newspaper The Guardian, about two-thirds of MPs believe that Johnson is unfit for public office, and some even say that if Johnson takes over again, he will switch to other parties or "resign".
Robert Foster, a commentator for the Guardian, said that Johnson, as a member of Congress, represented the constituents of Uxbridge and South Reislip, however, while the House of Commons had been in session for the past few weeks, he was on holiday in the Caribbean and the United States (his third in three months) and made a lot of money by giving speeches. This total malfeasance and irresponsibility to the electorate should disqualify him from holding any public office, let alone the Prime Minister.
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