The hot and hot policy week has passed, and good news has been spread everywhere, but the truth about residential transactions?

Lao Yang chatted about the room

2024-05-20 17:29Posted in Jiangxi Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, vice president of the real estate field creator

Last week, the strongest bailout policy in history was introduced, and friends who pay attention to real estate collectively climaxed.

The 5.17 New Deal can be called hot and hot.

The determination and strength to save the market are getting closer and closer to the state when Jia Ling lost weight.

So, after the epic new deal landed, how did the market react?

The regular media reports that Lao Yang saw can be said to be full of good news.

Let's take three screenshots, let's feel it together:

Seeing such media reports, it is estimated that some people will be itchy; Let's go, see the house!

This round of blockbuster new policies is definitely good for the property market, and the degree of benefit is greater than the previous two rounds; This is qualitative, not quantitative.

If you do a quantitative analysis, you need to look at the data and measure the effect of the New Deal with hard facts.

In the short term, the focus is on property transactions.

It just so happened that it was time to share the weekly report on Monday, and the "Typical Urban Residential Transaction Weekly" was served.

Week 20 of the year (last week), compared to week 19:

The number of online signatures for new houses in 17 cities increased by 1%, and the number of second-hand houses in 18 cities decreased by 7%.

Looking at this set of data, are you a little disappointed?

Why didn't there be a big jump?

Lao Yang's analysis is: The number of house visits triggered after the 5.17 New Deal has not yet had time to be converted into the number of orders and online signatures, and it is estimated that it will have to be transmitted for a week or two.

However, you must know that the 4.30 high-level meeting has been the starting point of the third round of bailouts, and then seven central cities have issued new policies in the following week.

It turned out to be a little cold.

In particular, second-hand housing fell by 7% month-on-month.

Looking at the weekly trend chart, it is basically confirmed that the 10th week after the Spring Festival this year (the 17th week of this year) is the high point of the second-hand housing online sign, and the high point of last year appeared in the 8th week after the Spring Festival.

Last week, the policies were frequent and very strong, but Lao Yang expects that only a few cities will have transactions that will pulse for two or three weeks; Next, most cities will enter a summer lull.

Second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities, the weekly average since the beginning of this year compared with the same period in 2023: down 16%; Among them, Shenzhen increased by 23% year-on-year, Weinan increased by 13%, and Ziyang increased by 3%; Nanning, Shanghai, Qingdao small drop; Ningbo saw the largest decline.

Here pull out the three cities out of yo-yo

Shenzhen

On May 6, Shenzhen significantly relaxed purchase restrictions, and then introduced two new policies, including lowering the appraisal price of existing housing, saving buyers taxes and fees.

In the 20th week of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen actually decreased compared with last week.

And, continue below the boom and bust line (rightmost gray column). Overall, the trading volume is slightly weaker.

Although the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has increased by nearly 30% year-on-year since the beginning of this year, it is still not strong enough and it is still difficult to push up housing prices.

Beijing

In the 20th week of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing decreased slightly compared with last week, slightly below the boom and wither line (the rightmost gray column).

Overall, the trading volume is slightly weaker.

Since the beginning of May, the purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing have been relaxed, but the effect is weak!

The logic of relaxation at the time was a bit problematic:

The local family has two apartments in their name, and it is allowed to buy another one outside the 5th Ring Road (enough to live, and also invest outside the 5th Ring Road?). There aren't too many of these lack of heart, right?)

Non-residents who have been in social security for five years and have a house in their name are allowed to buy another house outside the Fifth Ring Road (this kind of demand is rare)

Lao Yang expects that in the next two months, Beijing's purchase restrictions are expected to be further relaxed; Otherwise, it is difficult to significantly improve the transaction, and it is even difficult to stand on the monthly boom and bust line.

Nanning

In the 20th week of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Nanning, compared with last week, was higher than the line of prosperity and withering (the rightmost gray column).

Overall, the trading volume is strong.

Since the beginning of this year, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Nanning has been basically the same as last year, and the second half of the year is definitely stronger than the second half of last year.

Combined with the trend of Weinan and Ziyang, it may indicate that:

In some second- and third-tier cities in the west, the current round of decline is longer than that in the eastern cities, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses is recovering, and it is standing on or close to the line of prosperity and decline.

Finally, let's take a look at the monthly trend of second-hand housing transactions in the top 10 cities.

It was the highest in March 2023, and then fell for four consecutive months, reaching the bottom in July.

The key factor in the rebound in transactions from August to November was the second round of bailouts, which began at the high-level meeting on July 24, but the pace of policy implementation was relatively slow, reaching a climax from late August to September.

The core policy is to relax housing loans, which includes: canceling the subscription of housing and subscribing to loans, and lowering the interest rate of existing housing loans.

This round of bailout is the third round, fast-paced, strong, yesterday Lao Yang has analyzed, point to see: 98 years since the housing reform, the largest round of bailouts, what will be the effect?

Therefore, the promotion effect on real estate transaction volume should be greater than the second round of stimulus last year.

However, in the traditional sense, after the small spring in March and April, the transaction volume in May and July is prone to a seasonal decline.

Therefore, even with the help of the third round of bailouts, it is estimated that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the 10 major cities from May to July this year will be difficult to exceed March, and it is estimated that May is slightly higher than April, June is slightly lower than May, and July is slightly lower than June.

The good news is that it is estimated that from June, the second-hand housing transaction volume in the 10 major cities will turn from the previous decline to an increase year-on-year!

Focusing on the short term, it seems that it is still not optimistic.

However, standing high and looking far away,

Some high-energy cities still have many opportunities in the future, right?

View original image 48K

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

•