In his State of the Union address on September 1, Kazakh President Tokayev proposed an early presidential election this fall, while proposing to adjust the presidential term to seven years.
According to the current Constitution of Kazakhstan, the president's term of office is 5 years, and he cannot be re-elected for more than two consecutive terms. If the proposal is approved, the post-Soviet space will have a country with a first presidential term that cannot exceed one.
Tokayev
Currently, the post-Soviet union allows the president (or prime minister of Armenia) to be re-elected, even in Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, the westernmost part of the region.
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan's immediate neighbor, is preparing to reset President Mirziyoyev's first two presidential terms. Once the country holds a referendum on constitutional amendments, he may be re-elected for a de facto third or even fourth term.
Tokaev's decision – the opportunity to make up for lost time?
"Tokayev actually 'suffered an enemy' in January this year: on the one hand, there were unprecedented numbers of citizens everywhere protesting against social inequality and injustice, and on the other hand, representatives of the ruling elite tried to use the situation to change the leadership of the state. Although the situation has since stabilized and major constitutional reforms have been implemented, there is still a risk that a new type of instability could emerge. Kazakh political analyst Andrei Chebotarev wrote in his telegram.
Andrey Chebotarev
Second, Chebotarev believes that not all officials, parliamentarians, judges and heads of powerful departments are encouraged by the head of state's call for a "new Kazakhstan". Some are conservative in their thinking and unwilling to change. Others are because of the fear of losing the position of "fishing oil and water". Others, due to a lack of professionalism, do not understand what the head of State's plan is and how to implement it.
Therefore, the circle that Tokaev can rely on is relatively narrow. It is no coincidence that the word 'destruction' often appears in his speeches. Chebotarev said.
Despite pursuing a comprehensive foreign policy and wanting to remain neutral in various international conflicts, Kazakhstan has also suffered serious consequences from the "sanctions war" between Russia and the West due to some objective factors. Growing U.S.-China tensions, as well as ambiguity in Afghanistan after the Taliban return to power, also pose potential risks to the country and to Central Asia as a whole.
"Under Tokayev's leadership, Kazakhstan is going through a rather vague stage of development that incorporates elements of evolution, reform and crisis response," Chebotalev said. In general, with the abolition of 'two-headed politics' in the system of state power, Tokayev only this year began to act as a full-fledged head of state, making important decisions and being accountable to it. In 2019-2021, his ability to deal with many issues is limited. ”
In addition, the "black swan" of the epidemic requires huge efforts and resources to combat. As a result, Tokayev's nearly half of his term is quite different from what he planned and officially announced in 2019 after taking office. For him, the expected re-election for the new term is an opportunity to make up for lost time and continue to bow down to the country.
Chebotalev noted that, meanwhile, Tokayev is well aware that his decision could draw some criticism among protest-minded Kazakhs, as well as international institutions such as the European Union and the OSCE. However, many opponents have often criticized him in the past for being weak, indecisive, and inconsistent. So his current move actually refutes these criticisms and evaluations.
In addition, Tokayev will not run in the new elections as Nazarbayev's successor, supported by the latter, but as an independent politician.
"As for the decision to hold early parliamentary elections, it doesve with calls by some opponents for the dissolution of the incumbent Officiant Magilis of parliament, which was illegally formed in 2021. Finally, Tokayev hopes to win a loan of confidence from his compatriots through the referendum result held in June this year. Chebotarev said.
In addition, Tokayev complemented the recommendations with measures of a political, legal and socio-economic nature. His statement, therefore, has its own political logic.
Limiting power – a challenge to the entire post-Soviet space
Arkadi Dubnov, a Russian expert on Central Asia, told Kommersant that limiting presidential power to one term was a challenge to the entire post-Soviet space because it went against established traditions in the region.
Alkati Dubnov
"Tokayev took a big risk in taking this step, but in order to strengthen the legitimacy of his independence and eventually get rid of the image of Nazarbayev's heir, he had to do so," he said. The move is partly populist. If the amendments only go into effect during the next presidential term, Tokayev can only prove that he is preparing for a new 7-year term not for himself, but for the new leader. But 5 years later, Tokayev is 74 years old, and he probably doesn't want to run for re-election himself, let alone 7 years. ”
In an interview with Kommersant, Darya Chirova, an information analysis center at Moscow State University in Russia, said Tokayev's real goal was to "win public support again and fight for a longer chance to act" because "it is clear that by 2024 he will not even have time to complete half of the reforms announced after the events of January".
Darya Chirova
In Chirova's view, the idea of setting rules that the country's leaders must change every 7 years, forcing the government to look ahead at other politicians who could theoretically succeed them, is now futile.
"The political culture of Kazakhstan is developing, but in fact, the country has not had other political leaders to choose from for a long time," Chirova said. To put it bluntly, Tokaev has no other option now. So I think it's time to see how the next parliamentary elections go. This will show how likely a new leader is to emerge. ”
Early elections are in the interest of the incumbents
Tajikistan political analyst Parviz Mulozanov believes that There are several possible reasons for Tokayev's statement.
Parviz Mulozanov
"First of all, Tokaev's support at home is at its peak. That said, if elections are held this fall, he will win easily. But given the crisis and economic difficulties, Tokayev's current rating will not necessarily remain at the same level in the future. That is, it is in the interest of the incumbent president to hold elections as soon as possible. Mulozanov said.
Secondly, he believes that in the current situation, Tokayev has no important political opponents at home, because the Nazarbayev "clique" and its relatives have been completely out of the game, while other forces or authoritative political leaders have not yet appeared or grouped together. Perhaps in two or three years' time the political situation in Kazakhstan will have a different tone, but the current balance of political power is entirely in Tokayev's favour.
Mulozanov said Tokayev's other proposals should also be seen from this perspective. The incumbent president is doing his best to separate his image from former President Nazarbayev and his team and increase the number of his own supporters at home. Perhaps that's why he proposed limiting his presidential term to 7 years and banning re-election.
"On the one hand, the proposal will have a good response in society and among the people. On the other hand, this proposal is not very important for Tokaev personally – in any case, because of his age, he will not be president for more than 7 years. If this is not done, it will not be difficult to organize a new referendum, amend the Basic Law in accordance with the demands of the people, and clear its term of office to zero. Mulozanov said.
Moreover, he argues, any future president who comes to power after Tokaev could organize such a referendum for the same purpose.
Get rid of the continuation of the "super presidential system" step
Kazakh State Secretary Yellan Kalin wrote in his telegram: "The President's State of the Union address marks a fundamental new political milestone in the history of the country. The head of state sets qualitatively different criteria for the system of power. That is, maximum transparency in the adoption of the most important political decisions, constant updating, and open competition. The president's decision to make the entire election schedule public is an unprecedented step in Kazakhstan's political practice. The entire electoral cycle was initiated out of the need for a radical relaunch in our political system and is fully in line with the logic of constitutional reforms that the general public supported in the June referendum. ”
Erlan Kallin
He said that the holding of presidential elections, as well as subsequent parliamentary elections, would prompt the authorities to concentrate on the urgent and strategic tasks of the country's socio-economic development. In other words, the pace of modernization of the country will not be disrupted.
"With regard to Tokayev's proposal to limit the presidential term to 7 years and not the right to re-election, it is a well-considered decision that, if approved by the Parliament, will determine the future of kazakhstan's political system." Carlin wrote.
He believes that the main purpose of the norms of the presidential one-term system is to stabilize the political system for a long time, eliminate the risk of monopoly of power, and strengthen the basic principles of democracy. The initiative is a logical continuation of the steps that have been taken to finally move away from the super-presidential system.
He also noted that the electoral law would soon enter into force under the new rules.
"The process of registering political parties is being simplified, which has helped to promote the emergence of new parties and new faces in politics and promote increased political competition." And this trend is irreversible and will only increase with the deepening of political modernization. The renewal of the institutions of power representatives and the new principles of the formation of parliaments are closely related to the comprehensive transformation of the administrative verticals , the government and local governments. Henceforth, members of the Government will include not only representatives of political parties that have won a majority of votes, but also representatives of other parliamentary parties..."
Source: Asia Express
Compile: Vika
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