The Surging News reporter Fan Jialai Shao Bingyan
How far can New Oriental's "road with goods" go?
Close on June 21, New Oriental Online (01719. HK) rose 3.06% at HK$17.5, up 32.08% the day before.
After the stock price soared rapidly, New Oriental Online was subject to more controversy and triggered a "liquidation reduction" of foreign giants. On June 20, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that Tencent sold 74.6039 million shares of New Oriental Online, and its shareholding ratio dropped from 9.04% to 1.58%, which once rushed to the hot search.
After the popularity of the anchor, people are more focused on the professional ability of the live broadcast room. A number of consumers said that they bought moldy peaches, open Snickers and other unqualified products in the live broadcast room, which caused questions about their supply chains.
It is worth noting that on June 20, Morgan Stanley once again bought 2.7748 million shares of New Oriental Online. Yu Minhong also said on the same day that the new Oriental Business School may be established in the future. Brokers also have different views on whether to hold New Oriental Online for a long time.
"Oriental Selection": "New Oriental" investors indirectly hold shares
The first question from the outside world about the popularity of the Oriental Selection Live Broadcast room is: Is there a capital pusher operating behind the scenes?
Yu Minhong once posted that the popularity of the live broadcast room was unintentional, and the growth rate was far beyond his imagination. "Netizens forwarded it casually, but it received strong attention and formed a viral spread."
In terms of platform traffic, the relevant person in charge of Douyin e-commerce replied to the surging news reporter, and the style and content of the "Oriental Selection" live broadcast room conform to the tone advocated by the platform and are in line with the values of the platform. "Similar high-quality live broadcast rooms will get platform tilt resources."
Third-party data shows that since June 10, the number of online users and GMV in the "Oriental Selection" live broadcast room has shown explosive growth, with a single-day GMV of 63.906 million yuan on June 15, and the number of fans in the live broadcast room exceeded 10 million on June 16.
But since then, the heat has gradually declined. On the day of the "618" e-commerce promotion, the GMV of the live broadcast room was 62.369 million yuan, lower than the level on June 15. The growth rate of fans has also slowed down, and as of 7:30 on the 22nd, the number of fans has slightly exceeded 18 million.
The surging news reporter inquired about the Tianyancha APP and found that there were two major shareholders selected by Oriental, one of which was Beijing New Oriental Xuncheng Network Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as New Oriental Xuncheng), holding 55% of the shares, and the other was Beijing Yangde E-commerce Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as: Yangde E-commerce), holding 45% of the shares.
Who is behind the mysterious "Yangde e-commerce"? Public information shows that its major shareholder is Wang Yan, a well-known female investor in Wenzhou. According to a 2016 report by Wenzhou News Network, Wang Yan was the vice president and secretary general of the Wenzhou Enterprise Chamber of Commerce and the first employee after Xu Xiaoping came to work at New Oriental.
"After graduating from the University of Political Science and Law, she joined New Oriental, worked in my New Oriental Overseas Consulting Office, started by answering the phone, came all the way, founded Jiamei Education (Canada) Group, became a well-known angel investor, and helped countless people realize their dreams of taking off in life." Xu Xiaoping said.
At the same time, Wang Yan is also the actual controller of Jiamei Oriental (Beijing) International Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., and the predecessor of Jiamei Oriental is the Overseas Service Center of New Oriental Education Group.
It can be said that Wang Yan, like Xu Xiaoping, is an investor who came out of New Oriental. According to the Tianyancha APP, Yangde E-commerce was established on December 1 last year, close to the establishment time of Oriental Selection, and has only invested in one company of Oriental Selection since its establishment.
It is worth noting that from the perspective of business scope, Yangde E-commerce is closer to the operation content selected by Oriental: including clothing, shoes and hats, cosmetics, fruits, vegetables, etc., while the main business of New Oriental Xuncheng only includes online education services. Some insiders believe that Yangde e-commerce is more like the operating entity selected by the East.
It was complained that "the peach is moldy", and the supply chain problem is solved
The second question from the outside world about New Oriental is: in addition to feelings, is there a guarantee for professional capabilities such as price, service, and supply chain?
With the "moldy peach" on the hot search, the torture of the Eastern selection supply chain is particularly sharp. The surging news reporter learned that in order to better ensure product quality, Oriental Selection has begun to consider self-built supply chain.
Consumers reported that the peaches sent by "Oriental Selection" had become moldy
Informed sources told the surging news reporter that in the future, we will vigorously develop "Oriental Selection" self-operated products, with the goal of building Oriental Selection into a brand. "Self-built supply chains can really reduce product costs."
In the live broadcast on June 20, Yu Minhong also acknowledged this strategic decision: "I hope that Oriental Selection is not only a platform for carrying goods, but also must slowly be able to provide better consumer products on its own." He mentioned that it was planned to attract more attention after the number of private labels reached twenty or thirty, but only three or four were currently out.
But for New Oriental, which is just starting out, it is not easy to build a self-built supply chain. "In the early stage, New Oriental brought goods through traffic, and it was a relatively clever way for merchants to perform their own contracts, avoiding the shortcomings of ability and exerting the advantages of anchor capabilities to the extreme." Wang Liang, a researcher at China Europe International Business School, told the surging news reporter.
In his view, it is still too early for The East to select its own supply chain system, after all, the construction of a similar system is a heavy asset and the cost is extremely high. After the fans reach a certain scale, we should consider building a live warehouse to achieve the collection and delivery of various sources of goods.
"All e-commerce industries start with traffic, but in the end, success or failure depends on the ability of the supply chain." Wang Liang said. He believes that at the current stage of New Oriental, compared with the self-built supply chain system, what should be more important to think about is how to use the data accumulated in live broadcasting to help themselves and the brand side make more accurate decisions, such as the mining of demand laws and big data selection. If you can establish the ability to manage the fast-response supply chain, this ability to guide the manufacturer, may be a better way.
For the agricultural products that New Oriental mainly attacks, the supply chain challenges are even more severe. Huang Bin, director and vice president of Yiliu Technology and executive director of the Logistics Transparency Management Research Institute, told reporters that agricultural products have not yet achieved industrialization, small-scale categories are relatively loose, and an intensive brand system has not yet been formed, and the impact of warehousing and transportation on the quality of agricultural products itself will exceed 50%. "Even if the selection of products in the early stage is good, if the warehousing and logistics control is not good, the quality of agricultural products in the hands of consumers will be greatly reduced."
Liu Shuwei, an independent director who had called for the rescue of Royole, also suggested that in terms of establishing a supply chain for agricultural products and ensuring the quality of agricultural products, Oriental Selection should seriously study Chu Orange to ensure the quality of agricultural products: pre-sell agricultural products to consumers before the arrival of the peak harvest season for agricultural products; Unified logistics cold chain when agricultural products are harvested, and one-stop logistics services for agricultural products from the field to the hands of consumers are realized.
Foreign investment reduction, domestic securities companies to prompt risks; Live broadcast of collective transformation of education and training industry?
Brokers are also warning of risks.
On June 19, CITIC Securities released a research report on "Looking for Hope in Despair", saying that Oriental Selection is expected to continue its potential energy under the support of platform traffic, and it is expected to stand in the head live broadcast room of the Douyin platform for a long time.
"The short-term explosion has led to a strong rebound in the company's stock price, and it is recommended to further track and verify the stability of its operation and traffic trends, but we generally believe that Oriental Selection has basically established an operational inflection point and has the ability to further expand on a large scale." CITIC Securities said.
At the same time, CITIC Securities prompted: "The current market attention of the company is extremely high, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of daily GMV fluctuations on short-term stock prices; The company's supply chain management capabilities still need to be accumulated and verified; There are risks associated with policy changes in the live e-commerce and education sectors. “
On June 17, China Merchants Securities issued a research report to downgrade New Oriental Online to neutral, with a target price of HK$26.70, due to the current valuation being too aggressive.
China Merchants Securities said that New Oriental Online's current valuation needs to correspond to the daily average GMV and 35 times price-earnings ratio of nearly 30 million yuan for the live streaming business, which is too aggressive, so the rating will be downgraded to neutral.
In the process of new oriental online stock price continues to rise, foreign capital has successively reduced its holdings. Wind data shows that on June 15, Morgan Stanley significantly reduced its holdings in New Oriental Online by 35.3145 million shares; on June 16, it continued to reduce its holdings by 36.6889 million shares.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its holdings by 15.4504 million shares on June 17, and HSBC reduced its holdings on June 14 and 15 consecutively, with a total reduction of 10.6836 million shares.
It is worth noting that on June 20, Morgan Stanley once again bought 2.7748 million shares of New Oriental Online. On June 21, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) sold a net of HK$39.9896 million for New Oriental Online, with a total turnover of HK$3.807 billion.
The popularity of New Oriental has made more transformed education and training industries see hope. On June 15, when investors asked questions about New Oriental Live Streaming with goods on the interactive platform, Doushen Education (300010) replied that about 100 teachers have shared literary and historical knowledge on the live broadcast platform, while providing users with a variety of courses and products.
On June 21, Zhou Chuanyou, chairman and president of 600661 Education, said that from 2020 onwards, it will actively lay out public and private live broadcasts. At the end of 2021, the company added the "Douyin Live Broadcast" represented by educational products in the field of "college student education". This year, the company is rapidly promoting the quality, the promotion and marketing of science and technology course products, and the creation of an education live broadcast matrix with the goal of increasing business income.
"New Oriental's success is not replicable." Li Chengdong, an e-commerce observer, told the surging news reporter. "New Oriental's teachers are able to provide very strong differentiated content, which is their core competitiveness and barrier to success, which is not easily imitated by any other institution." The success of New Oriental represents an individual rather than an industry. ”
Shen Yongming, member of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and secretary general of the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the China Democratic National Construction Association, believes that convergence and following the trend are all phenomena that need to be taboo in the new economy. "The live streaming market is very large, and there is still a lot of market space and imagination space, but not everyone can do it, everyone has a share."
He mentioned that education and training institutions may wish to try, but they should avoid convergence and imitation. "It is suggested that we can start with the parent customer group when we were doing education before, find out the customer positioning, find the product classification, make a product bigger and stronger, and then gradually expand the space." In form, it is also necessary to explore new attempts and use professional and channels to serve the customer base. ”
Responsible editor: Yes Dong Dong Photo editor: Jiang Lidong