Recently, Europe has once again fallen into the heroic "gas" shortness. First there was an explosion at a natural gas plant in the United States, and then the Kremlin announced that due to equipment problems, the Nord Stream One gas transmission had to be reduced. European gas prices rose more than 10 percent in response. Europeans are numb. Now it is not a matter of price, but if you want to save gas in advance, I am afraid that you can't do it.
Germany is the most affected country, and on Tuesday, Gazprom issued a notice saying that Nord Stream One's gas delivery to Germany has been reduced by 40%, and the pipeline's gas supply to Germany has been reduced from 167 million cubic meters per day to 100 million cubic meters. Just a day later, Gazprom again informed Germany that gas shipments to Germany would be further reduced to 67 million cubic meters starting Thursday. At this pace, it will be difficult for Germany to store enough natural gas for the winter.
Germany is panicked enough, but a series of actions in Ukraine have made Europe even more panicked. Ukraine's state-owned gas company announced in early May that it had interrupted one-third of Russian gas transmissions due to force majeure.
In early June, Zelenskiy announced that he would suspend the export of natural gas. Ukraine's suspension of natural gas exports has had little impact on the market. According to previous years' data, Ukraine's natural gas production is about 20 billion cubic meters per year, but its consumption is 30 billion cubic meters per year, which must rely on external transportation, or more precisely, Russian gas.
But the question is whether Ukraine is orderly cutting off Russian gas transportation and cutting off Russian energy in a "suicide" decisive posture. If that were the case, given Ukraine's important role in transmitting Gazpros, it would be a disaster for Europe. Ukraine's actions do have such a tendency.
EU countries are anxious to find natural gas, and Ukraine is also looking for it. A piece of news recently exposed by the US media has made all parties nervous. According to the US Foreign Policy website, the Ukrainian side is making a number of proposals to the United States and other Western countries, including proposing to sign a LNG "lease agreement" with the United States, and if Ukraine's domestic natural gas production increases, the country will repay the funds to the United States within two years. Zelenskiy is also going to grab LNG from the United States with old Europeans.
Zelenskiy's operation is undoubtedly drawing a big pie for the Americans. Why?
First of all, 2 years later, this point in time is very interesting. In the current situation in Ukraine, the existence of the Kiev regime in 2 years is a question. Taking 10,000 steps back, Zelenskiy's government was lucky enough to survive the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and continue to govern, but if you count Zelenskiy's term of office, 2 years later is not exactly the time when he stepped down. When the time comes for him to pat his ass and leave, this debt who loves to pay back who pays back.
In this regard, Medvedev asked a harsh question: Who said that Ukraine still exists on the world map in 2 years? But the Americans don't care anymore, they've invested so much in "anti-Russian" projects that everything else is trivial to them. Americans' money is most likely to be lost.
Second, the increase in domestic natural gas production in Ukraine is a false proposition. To this day, even the secretary general of NATO has to admit that if Russia and Ukraine want to negotiate a ceasefire, Ukraine will inevitably have to "cut off the land." The minimum of "land cutting" must also be the two states of Eastern Ukraine. The proven natural gas in Ukraine is mainly distributed in the Donbass region, the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov near the continental shelf, and the Reserves of the Donbass region account for 43% of the total Ukraine. After losing the Udong region, Zelenskiy also wanted to increase natural gas production, which was a fantasy. By "if Ukraine's domestic gas production increases," Kiev has opened a backdoor for itself, making it clear that it wants to "white-box" U.S. natural gas.
In the end, the wool came out of the sheep. Even if Kiev can repay the money, this money will be "transformed" from the West.
Regarding the "lend-lease agreement" with the United States, Yuri Viterenko, president of the National Oil and Gas Company of Ukraine, said that he wanted to structure it in a smart way (the lend-lease scheme) so that the U.S. taxpayer would not be burdened.
In addition to possible "lend-lease agreements" with the United States. Ukraine has also prepared a package for the West to help Ukraine resolve its energy crisis, including a €300 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a financing package for Ukraine to procure natural gas from countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, and the development of supply lines to replace Russian gas.
Zelenskiy's plan was ready, waiting for the West to pay for it. Still, whether the EU is willing to pay for Ukraine's energy program remains a question. Ukraine has really built new lines, what if gazprom's supply to Europe is cut off?
Ukrainian media reported that the leaders of Germany, France and Italy will jointly visit Kiev on June 16, local time, and stressed that the main topic of the "Big Three" is to discuss Ukraine's EU candidate status.
However, Macron said during his visit to Romania on the 15th that the CURRENT EU is facing an unprecedented geopolitical situation, and the EU needs to start a new dialogue with Ukraine, while Ukraine needs to negotiate with Russia. The temperature difference between the two sides is not small.
Ukraine wants to continue to take aid from the West, but old Europe has asked Kiev to talk to Moscow. Next, the "Big Three" visits Ukraine or the moment of a showdown between the two sides.
It is worth noting that Zelenskiy had phone calls with US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Johnson to discuss military assistance and Ukraine's accession to the European Union. It's interesting that Ukraine wants to join the EU but is discussing it with two non-EU countries.
When Russia continued to advance in Wudong, the European porridge was even more "sad". The EU summit and the G7 summit at the end of June may be the time for the drama to begin.