Following last year's U.S.-ASEAN online summit, Biden has to face-to-face "hangouts" with ASEAN leaders, and his intention to "run Southeast Asia" is very obvious. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
On May 12, local time, the second U.S.-ASEAN special summit was finally held in Washington.
At the end of Obama's term in 2016, the United States and ASEAN held their first U.S.-ASEAN special summit at Annenberg Manor in the United States, and it has been six years now. During Trump's term of office, he also planned to hold a second special summit, but it was eventually cancelled due to the epidemic and other reasons.
Last October, Biden attended the U.S.-ASEAN Online Summit, the first U.S. president to appear on the occasion in four years. Now, it is necessary to face the ASEAN leaders to "have group chats", and the Biden administration's intention to "run Southeast Asia" is very obvious.
On February 17, 2022, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, the scene of the informal meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Preparations for the summit have gone through several twists and turns
As early as February this year, the U.S.-ASEAN summit was announced to be held, and the United States described it as a "historic" summit. However, it is embarrassing that due to the repeated unauthorized revision of the agenda by the Us side, which has caused dissatisfaction among many ASEAN countries, the summit originally planned for March was eventually postponed, and only Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited the United States in March.
Later, it was Biden who sent a letter to ASEAN leaders that decided that a second summit would be held and would not be postponed indefinitely, and the ASEAN countries and the United States re-agreed on the agenda.
Moreover, not all the leaders of the 10 ASEAN countries were present, but only 8 came. Myanmar is not allowed to participate in the meeting because of U.S. sanctions, and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte informed the United States at the end of April that the United States will not attend the meeting, on the grounds that the Philippines has elected the next president when the summit is held, and that "the new administration may not agree to any agreements or commitments reached by the current administration and the United States."
Marcos Jr., who won the May 10 election in the Philippines, is indeed not the favorite of the United States. The United States is more inclined to support Robredo. When he was 14 years old, he accompanied his mother, Mrs. Marcos, on a visit to China. He once told the media: "If you let the United States in, you will make China your enemy." ”
On 17 February 2022, the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting committed to ensuring the full and effective implementation of the RCEP. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
The intention of the United States to disrupt the situation is obvious
Since the Biden administration took office, there has been a lot of movement in Southeast Asia, mainly because of the hope that ASEAN will play the role that the United States expects in the Indo-Pacific strategy.
In the Indo-Pacific Strategy Paper, "Strengthening Empowerment and Unifying ASEAN" is one of the top ten action plans listed, which mainly include three aspects.
In terms of diplomacy, it is to raise the level of diplomatic exchanges, institutionalize the diplomatic relations that the United States and ASEAN were once estranged, and activate a series of mechanisms such as the U.S.-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, the "Mekong-U.S. Partnership Meeting," and the U.S.-ASEAN Dialogue. This U.S.-ASEAN special summit is also one of them.
On the economic front, by strengthening investment and trade with ASEAN, ASEAN will be willing to join the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" that the United States is promoting, and promoting ASEAN to replace China's position in the low-end supply chain.
In terms of security, in the name of helping ASEAN countries strengthen their island defense capabilities, it is to internationalize and complicate The South China Sea affairs, reactivate the interaction between Thailand and the Philippines, two ASEAN countries with security cooperation mechanisms with the United States, and promote the implementation of the so-called "Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Initiative".
Obviously, the main intention of the United States to disrupt Southeast Asia is to contain China. But this goal may be difficult to achieve.
On September 13, 2021, visitors walked out of the Nanning International Convention and Exhibition Center in Guangxi. On the same day, the 18th China-ASEAN Expo and the China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit ended in Nanning. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
ASEAN will not take sides
Before the U.S.-ASEAN summit, some ASEAN leaders said something about hoping to strengthen ASEAN-US relations, but ASEAN countries would not actively cooperate with the "China agenda" set by the United States.
Last year, the United States held a high-profile so-called democratic summit, which was attended by only three ASEAN countries.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said during his visit to the United States in March that he would not try to isolate China because of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict and complicate the already tense relationship between the two major powers.
Lee also said it was not logical to define China's position in the conflict as "China has taken the wrong side." For the Indo-Pacific economic framework promoted by the United States, Lee Hsien Loong also replaced it with the "Asia-Pacific Economic Framework".
Cambodia is the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN, so Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has set off for the United States. But the United States also acknowledges that "Cambodia has become one of China's most important allies in the region."
Indonesia, the G20 chair and coordinator of ASEAN-U.S. relations, insisted on inviting Putin to the November G20 summit despite much pressure from the United States.
Thailand is the rotating chairman of APEC, but on May 4, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia issued a joint statement saying that the ASEAN summit, G20 summit and APEC summit held in November this year will "provide a unique opportunity for all member countries or economies to jointly advance global and regional agendas and efforts", indicating that Russia will not be excluded.
In fact, the data is more telling. China is ASEAN's largest trading partner, with China-ASEAN trade reaching $878.2 billion in 2021, and the United States being ASEAN's second largest trading partner, with $379 billion in 2021. This account is very well calculated.
Therefore, it is not difficult for the United States to use this summit to elevate the U.S.-ASEAN relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership; but if it wants to make ASEAN take sides, it is doomed to failure.
Written by Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Editor/Rui He
Proofreading/Lin Zhao