Putin's Victory Day speech surprised the West, and the world speculated about Russia's next move

Source: Global Times

On May 9, Russia held a military parade to commemorate the 77th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War in Moscow's Red Square as scheduled, and Russian President Putin attended and delivered a speech. Against the backdrop of Western public opinion rumors that Putin would take this opportunity to "formally declare war on Ukraine" or launch a "people's mobilization," Putin's speech was once considered a "turning point" in how the War between Russia and Ukraine progressed. But on the 9th, Putin did not make any major announcements about the war in Ukraine in his speech of about 10 minutes, and did not even directly mention Ukraine, but once again criticized the aggressiveness of the United States and NATO for making Russia have to take a "pre-emptive strike.". Putin's "lack of details" speech and this year's "relatively low-key" Red Square military parade have led to a lot of discussion in the Western media: Is Russia "leaving a back road" or preparing the next move? On the same day, for the first time, in Ukraine, which had fought off German Nazis with Soviet soldiers, no major commemorations were held, replaced by a video released by Ukrainian President Zelenskiy who said "Ukraine is winning." On the evening of the 9th, news from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian army was launching a "surprise operation" against the Azov steel plant in Mariupol.

Putin speaks "no declaration of war"

The red square military parade was held at 10:00 a.m. local time (15:00 Beijing time). After Russian Defense Minister Shoigu inspected the troops, Putin delivered a speech that attracted much attention. He remembered the heroes who died in the Great Patriotic War, recalled NATO's actions in Ukraine, and explained the reasons for special military operations in the Donbass region.

Putin said the history of the Great Patriotic War made Russia wary of Nazism and to do everything in its power to avoid the "horrors of global war." Moscow has repeatedly tried to reach an agreement on an international security solution, but "the West has no intention of listening to Russia, they have other intentions." They are openly preparing to launch another punitive action against the Donbass region, preparing to invade our historic homeland, including Crimea."

"We see how military infrastructure is deployed [in Ukraine], how hundreds of foreign advisers are getting to work, NATO countries regularly supply the most modern weapons, and the danger is increasing day by day." Putin said that by launching a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia preemptively repelled aggression, "this is a forced, timely and only correct decision, a decision of a sovereign, strong and independent state". He paid tribute to the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, saying that the fighters "fought for the motherland", "fought for the future" and "no one forgot the lessons of World War II".

Russia's "Newspaper" said on the 9th that Putin did not "declare war on Ukraine" in his speech, nor did he announce military mobilization. Instead, he announced that he would sign a decree mobilizing all Russian society to help the families of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine. Ambassadors and senior diplomats from a number of countries attended the parade, mainly from the embassies of Middle Eastern and African countries, such as the ambassadors of Turkey and Pakistan to Russia.

According to Russian government officials, more than 11,000 officers and soldiers participated in the Red Square military parade on the 9th, but due to weather reasons, the air parade part of the parade was canceled. The original aerial review highlights included the "Z" formation of 77 aircraft and the "doomsday aircraft" Il-80 air strategic command aircraft, which flew once during rehearsals on the 7th. Although some foreign experts questioned the reasons for the Russian side to cancel the aerial inspection, the Global Times reporter saw in Red Square that sporadic rain began to fall on the evening of the 8th, the weather on the 9th was good and bad, and the reporter was also poured by heavy rain in the afternoon. According to Russian media reports, the weather near the airport is also not good, can not meet the minimum parade flight conditions, the safety interval and altitude of the aircraft flying over the Red Square can not be guaranteed.

The world is speculating about Russia's next move

Western countries are highly concerned about Putin's speech, and British Defense Secretary Wallace first issued a fierce attack. He said on the 9th that Putin showed "a hint of despair" in his Victory Day speech on Monday, and argued that NATO "only borders 6% of Russia's land border.". He also said ukraine was likely to crush Russian troops. Germany's "Augsburg Report" said on the 9th that after Putin's speech, Germany's largest opposition CDU politician Rortgen believes that the expectation that Putin's speech may become a "turning point in the war" has not been realized, but the war situation in Ukraine is still very dangerous. If the situation is militarily favorable to Putin, he can escalate at any time.

"On Victory Day without new victories, Putin's speech has left the world guessing," CNN said, adding that world leaders and defense officials spent weeks speculating about new plans that Putin might announce in his Victory Day speech, including using the historic day to escalate special military operations and declare a real war. Germany's "Munich Mercury" interpreted on the 9th that Putin avoided escalating the war and kept the "back door" open. Surprisingly, Putin did not escalate the conflict and issue threats in his Red Square speech, and there was no talk about the conquest of all of Ukraine. "Overall, his speech was short, only about 10 minutes, without aggressive wording."

The German "Bild" said on the 9th that Putin did not even say the word "Ukraine" in his speech, on the contrary, he only talked about the fight in Donbass. According to the report, this is Putin's "speech of brewing a way out" - the war in Ukraine has turned into a regional conflict. Buchhard Meissner, an expert at the Bundeswehr think tank, commented: "The West is a little too panicked. We should look calmly at what is happening. Now it's a war of attrition. ”

"Putin may have gained some satisfaction from the wild speculation in the West surrounding his Victory Day speech." The BBC commented that Putin's lack of details speech was willing to let the outside world continue to speculate. Or does it reflect Russia's setbacks on the battlefield?

"Why did the Kremlin refuse the general mobilization?" The Russian "free media" network published an article on this topic on the 8th, saying that the Western media claimed that Russia would announce a military mobilization in China on the 9th, but this statement was denied by the Russian official. Russian military expert Litovkin said that Western enemies spread these rumors with the intention of inciting panic among the Russian people and undermining Russia's social stability. At present, he said, the West is launching three types of wars against Russia at the same time: hot wars, economic wars and propaganda wars.

Ukraine "No Victory Day Celebration"

CNN quoted defense industry analyst Nicholas Drummond as saying on the 9th that this year's Russian Victory Day military parade is more "low-key", but "many people have steely determination on their faces, indicating that Putin has consolidated his power base, rather than being weakened by recent events." After the parade, Putin participated in the "Immortal Legion" parade in Moscow. Holding a portrait of his father on the front lines, he walked along Red Square. From 2015 to 2019, Putin took part in the "Legion of Immortals" parade on every Victory Day. The event was later interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this year's "Immortal Legion" parade was held again in Russia on Victory Day.

According to Russian official media reports, in addition to Moscow, St. Petersburg and other places, Kherson and other Ukrainian areas occupied by the Russian army also held small celebrations on the 9th. For the first time in Ukraine's history as an independent state, the BBC said, there was no major event to commemorate Victory Day, and instead Ukrainian President Zelenskiy posted a video walking through the large commercial streets of central Kiev. He also compared the current situation to World War II, saying that "after decades after World War II, darkness has returned to Ukraine." Evil is back – wearing different uniforms, using different slogans, but with the same purpose. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would not allow Russia to "misappropriate" the victory in World War II, "today we celebrate victory day against Nazism." We won then, and we will win now. ”

Agence France-Presse said on the 9th that Ukraine is one of the countries most damaged by World War II in the former Soviet Union, but this year, the commemoration that marked the victory over the Nazis has been canceled. More than a decade ago, Ukraine began to distance itself from Russia's Victory Day tradition, first abandoning Moscow's preferred label of "Great Patriotic War" in official discourse and history books, in favor of the expression "World War II". Since 2015, commemorations in Ukraine have been held not only on May 9, but also on May 8 on the "Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation", reflecting European traditions. Some Ukrainian politicians have called for the complete cancellation of the May 9 event.

"Victory Day did not bring victory to Putin, but the war cast a shadow over The celebrations in Europe," said the European "Politics" website, which is Russia's Victory Day and Europe's "European Day" to celebrate peace and reunification. "But for many presidents and prime ministers of EU countries, there is nothing to celebrate about 'Europe Day', Europe is neither complete nor peaceful", "not even an agreement on sanctions against Russia".

Eu High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell said in an interview with the Financial Times on the 9th that the EU should use the frozen Russian foreign exchange reserves to pay for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. Citing the example of the U.S. freezing of the central bank's assets in the United States after the Afghan Taliban seized power, he said it would be "logical" for the EU to take similar measures. "Now that the money is in our pockets, who can explain to me why Afghan money can be treated this way, while Russian money can't?" In this regard, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Glushko said on the 9th that Borrelli's initiative is completely lawless. Such a decision would undermine the credibility of the West and damage the interests of Europeans themselves.

[Sui Xin, Special Correspondent of Global Times in Russia, Special Correspondent of Global Times in Germany, Aoki Liu Yupeng Yuwen]

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