The Russo-Ukrainian war brought two surprises to the United States, first of all, the United States did not expect that Russia really dared to risk the cost of large-scale Sanctions from the West to directly launch large-scale military operations against Ukraine. The second is that it was not expected that the performance of the Russian army would be so crossed, the war has entered its third month, and Ukraine has even been able to form a stalemate with the Russian army.
Today's Russo-Ukrainian war has become a war of attrition, Russia's national strength will be seriously depleted, the combat effectiveness of the Russian military has also surprised the United States, in this case, the United States has no longer regarded Russia as the main threat, China has become the "primary target" of the United States, from the United States official to the American media and even the United States people, are widely discussing the "China threat theory" and "Sino-US competition" these topics.
On April 30, the latest quarterly issue of foreign policy magazine was not about the Russo-Ukrainian War, but about "What Exactly Is U.S. China Policy?" written by Anyou Li, a professor of political science at Columbia University. 》
Li Anyou believes that the confrontation between China and the United States is not used for global competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, although there is a possibility of military conflict between China and the United States, it is mainly limited to the Indo-Pacific region, and the South China Sea, the East China Sea, Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula are the four "war fuses" between China and the United States.
Among these four fuses, Taiwan is the most dangerous one, because China's bottom line is to "safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," and China will not make any concessions on the Taiwan issue; and upgrading "US-Taiwan relations" is one of the policies of the US government, the United States wants to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and if the United States withdraws when Taiwan needs "assistance," then the international status and image of the United States will be destroyed. Therefore, if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult for the United States to stay out of the matter, and the war in the Taiwan Strait may escalate into a nuclear war, leading to tragic destruction.
Looking at the current international situation, Russia's economic situation is not good, India has empty development potential but many internal problems, Europe has been subject to NATO in terms of defense, and the only country that has the ability to challenge US hegemony at present is Only China, and Sino-US competition seems to be the main theme in the future.
However, China and the United States do not have to fight a new Cold War like the United States and the Soviet Union, and the Biden administration's China policy includes five goals: to prevent China from recovering Taiwan by force, to maintain a strong military force in Asia, to maintain an alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region, to maintain a leading edge in new science and technology, and to have international influence over other countries. As long as the Biden administration achieves these five goals, it does not necessarily have to completely "block" China.
China's three major characteristics also leave room for Sino-US reconciliation. First, China did not use it in the Cold War Soviet Union, and although China aspired to rise, it had no intention of pushing its ideology to the world and did not develop an alliance similar to the Warsaw Pact.
Second: China has not proposed another set of rules for the world order, and It has no intention of challenging the hegemonic status of the United States, but is actively increasing its influence in the existing international order.
Third: China has no territorial ambitions, whether it is the Taiwan issue, the Diaoyu Dao issue or the South China Sea issue, it is All china's efforts to maintain its own territory. China is more keen to invest overseas, and "win-win" has become China's strategy of opening up to the outside world.
From the above three points, it can be seen that China has no intention of confrontation with the United States at all, and china has been actively safeguarding its own country's rights and interests from beginning to end. Therefore, Biden's five goals, combined with China's three major characteristics, may indeed lead to reconciliation between China and the United States.
However, everything is absolute, and the ability to "coexist peacefully" between China and the United States depends to a large extent on whether the Taiwan issue can be resolved peacefully. One of Biden's five goals is to "prevent China from recovering Taiwan by force," and once Taiwan's Taiwan independence forces in Taiwan escalate the situation to an uncontrollable level, causing China to abandon its plan to peacefully resolve the Taiwan issue, then there is a highly probable showdown between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue.
There is another uncertain factor in the Taiwan Strait issue, and that is Japan. On the Taiwan issue, Japan has even been more active than the United States. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio began a visit to five Southeast Asian and European countries on April 29, and every time he went, he would mention that "the status quo of the region should not be changed by force", ostensibly referring to the Russian-Ukrainian war, but in fact alluding to the Taiwan issue. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is even more "guilty of the following crimes", reminding the United States that it should clearly understand the attitude of "will send troops" on the Taiwan issue and adopt a "deterrent strategy" to prevent China from recovering Taiwan.
Japan hopes that the two sides of the strait will be divided for a long time, so that a considerable part of the PLA's naval and air forces will be pinned down in the Taiwan Strait area, and the pressure on the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will be less.
In addition, the Taiwan Strait is Japan's most important shipping route, and for Japan, which is extremely dependent on maritime transportation routes, China's recovery of Taiwan is equivalent to choking Japan's throat. In the past, the strength of the Chinese navy was not strong, and Japan did not pay much attention to this issue, but with the rapid development of China's naval strength in the past 10 years, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has been unable to protect its own maritime lifeline by strength, and the Japanese authorities have begun to attach importance to the Taiwan Strait, and ensuring that the two sides of the strait are in a state of division has become one of Japan's biggest goals.
Many people believe that if the United States did not send troops to assist in the defense of Ukraine, it means that on the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States is likely to shrink back. However, the Ukrainian issue is not comparable to the Taiwan issue. First of all, Ukraine is a sovereign state, and Russia has made it clear that it will not occupy Ukraine by waging war under the slogans of "de-militarization" and "de-Nazirification". Therefore, for the United States, even if the Russian army wins the war, it will only temporarily frustrate NATO's eastward expansion strategy, and Russia is still passive.
Taiwan has been China's territory since ancient times, and if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA's goal is to directly recover Taiwan, rather than withdrawing to the mainland after a war. Therefore, if the United States does not send troops, it can only watch the Platon Army successfully recover Taiwan. Taiwan's unique geographical environment also dooms the United States to provide taiwan with military material assistance in a timely manner during wartime, and the means of fighting proxy wars will not work. Therefore, the United States has only two choices before it: either send troops or sit back and watch China recover Taiwan.
In short, the United States is now facing a "dead game," and if it goes to war with China on the Taiwan issue, it will have to risk great defeat, when the invincible image established by the United States since the Cold War will completely collapse, and the hegemonic status of the United States will not be guaranteed. If we retreat on the Taiwan issue, our image in the international arena will be destroyed. All the Biden administration can do now is to delay a few more steps on the "chessboard" or take the initiative to ask for "peace chess" before being "generaled" by China.