Baidu has obtained the qualification of "unmanned manned demonstration" and plans to achieve single-point commercial profitability in the next 2-3 years

On April 28, on the same day that Beijing issued a notice of unmanned manned demonstration application, residents of the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (Yizhuang) became the first group of people to try to hit driverless ride-hailing cars on open roads. Residents can use the APP to call a car at a fixed station, scan the code to open the door after waiting for the car to come, start the vehicle on the display screen in the car, and then the vehicle will be unmanned throughout the whole process, realizing a series of operations such as starting, accelerating, braking, turning, and stopping.

The unmanned demonstration operation from the need for a steering wheel takeover to the complete absence of a receiver is an important leap forward and a sign that China's autonomous driving commercial operation has entered a new stage.

As one of the first batch of approved enterprises, Baidu's self-driving travel service platform Radish Run has opened an unmanned autonomous driving travel service. It is reported that the demonstration application subjects that have obtained the notice can carry out unmanned autonomous driving manned demonstration applications on open roads within 60 square kilometers of the Beijing High-level Autonomous Driving Demonstration Zone. However, due to the fact that only 10 unmanned vehicles were invested in the first batch, in order to ensure the experience of citizens, Baidu has reduced the operating scope of unmanned vehicles to 20 square kilometers.

On the same day that it received the notice of unmanned manned demonstration application, Baidu held a media communication meeting at Apollo Park in Yizhuang, Beijing, to answer questions about the commercialization of unmanned driving.

Start by cultivating users' usage habits

Baidu will open a free manned test for main drivers in Beijing from the end of 2020, and Baidu's driverless vehicles will start charging by the end of 2021. Today, Baidu has moved safety officers from the driver's seat to the passenger seat.

According to Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu's intelligent driving business group, "We are now in the stage of cultivating user habits, educating user cognition and exploring user needs. Our standard pricing is, in principle, higher than the existing conventional chauffeur-drive. After Yizhuang opened a commercial pilot, there are certain market preferential activities in the early stage, and we hope to appropriately promote the way, so that the threshold is not so high, so that more people can experience such a service, to perceive automatic driving, to accept automatic driving, and to get used to automatic driving, which is what we want to do. ”

In this process, as demand continues to increase and consumer recognition rises, Baidu will continue to adjust its promotion methods to find sustainable commercialization.

Xu Baoqiang, director of Baidu's automotive robot department, added that the difference point from the human to the unmanned core is essentially safe, Baidu has always said that the safety of automatic driving is higher than that of human drivers, from our internal point of view, we can go in the direction of unmanned, the core standard is that safety is to be able to level or surpass human drivers, which is a line of Baidu internal cards. Baidu's internal optimism predicts that there will be an opportunity to achieve unmanned vehicles at the end of this year.

It is reported that the recent order volume of Baidu driverless vehicles is continuing to rise, and the proportion of high-frequency active users is getting higher and higher, and the proportion of daily orders in Yizhuang has exceeded 30%. In terms of the team, in addition to the first batch of 10 Hongqi EVs that have obtained the qualification for manned operation on public roads, Baidu also has 30 Jihu vehicles that have also been approved to start testing on the road. The second batch of 30 vehicles has entered the application process for manned qualifications, with the goal of achieving unmanned manned experience services in the near future.

Wei Dong said that in the third quarter of 2021, the order volume of Baidu driverless vehicles was 110,000, and more than 210,000 orders were made in the fourth quarter. "At present, objectively speaking, the average daily single volume and the total monthly single volume are still rising, which is a steady growth process, and indeed there have been some fluctuations in the first half of this year because of the epidemic control measures."

In the next 2-3 years, there is an opportunity to achieve single-point commercial profitability

As autonomous driving enters the initial stages of commercialization, it becomes a question when large-scale commercialization will be achieved. In this regard, Wei Dong put forward several major prerequisites, including the geographical range covered by the operating vehicles should be wide enough, the cost structure should be relatively reasonable, and the technology should be mature enough, and so on.

First, the geographical coverage of autonomous driving business should be wide enough. As a physical displacement service, the wider the area of service, the larger the audience that can be served, and the larger the market, which depends on the problem of the road area opened by the government in the future. Second, the cost structure should be relatively reasonable. If the cost structure is not reasonable, the larger the commercialization, the more disadvantageous it is for the enterprise.

It is understood that what Baidu has been doing in the past few years is to make the cost of automatic driving support future large-scale expansion from all dimensions. The first dimension is the cost of hardware, which cost nearly millions in 2017 and 2018 for a radar-equipped car. Last year, Baidu released the Apollo Moon 5th generation car, and the full cost of the car + suite has dropped to 480,000. At that time, Baidu made an estimate that according to the 5-year depreciation apportionment, the cost of Apollo Moon 5 generation car in a month was 8,000 yuan, and it had the opportunity to do business in the car market.

"But that's not enough, I don't want breakeven or capital preservation. The core of how we can make a profit is to reduce the excessive hardware consumption of the vehicle through the integration ability, and constantly reduce the hardware cost. Wei Dong said.

The second dimension is labor costs, existing public transportation capacity, taxis, ride-hailing, buses, the cost of drivers is the majority, only unmanned can achieve subversive changes in the cost structure. For these formats, there is now an opportunity to remove the cost of drivers.

Wei Dong said: "Now Baidu is ready in technology, hardware is also ready, we are very confident, our cost is gradually decreasing." From the perspective of business formats, for the scene of public travel, there are turnip fast running in the national urban layout and the operation of the fleet. It is also ready from the management point of view. Later, with the gradual release of local policies, the opening of the region, the increase of fleet launch, and the continued reduction of costs, it is expected to go in the direction of large-scale commercialization. ”

Baidu is optimistic about the large-scale commercialization and profitability of the autonomous driving industry, and internally believes that in the next 2-3 years or so, Baidu has the opportunity to achieve profitability in the commercialization of autonomous driving at a single point.

How to deal with the industry "scuffle" with multi-player participation

The industry generally believes that around 2025, there will be a relative peak release period for autonomous vehicles. At that time, car companies, Internet companies, content service providers, and communication operators will all enter a "big chaos".

Wei Dong said that first, foreign, domestic and new car manufacturers will gradually begin to provide more versions of cars with autonomous driving capabilities for the market to choose. Second, all those who have Internet scenes will definitely join, including Meituan, JD.com, etc. However, it does not mean that every company will engage in self-driving research and development, and many companies have a high probability of opening up their service scenarios with autonomous vehicles. Third, all content service providers, including Douyin, self-media, etc., as well as communication operators, will enter this field in their own way.

What role will Baidu play in this process? Wei Dong believes that the main engine factory is good at manufacturing and supply chain management, and Baidu will actively cooperate with the main engine factory to build smart cars. When the smart car comes on the road, Baidu cooperates with the communication operator to do vehicle-road coordination, so that the signal network and interactive network on the road are more intelligent, which is a process of information interaction and information feedback. The improvement of this channel will also give more Internet companies and content service providers the opportunity to create more mobile space services.

In Wei Dong's view, "Now That Baidu is leading the way, and some autonomous driving companies are trying to make a breakthrough at a single point, let's build this platform together." In this process, I believe that everyone will play to their own abilities, and the core is to create a mobile life scene. Baidu will open up its brain capabilities and ecological networks to everyone. We embrace all the participants in the whole industry chain, create value with us, and when we provide value for consumers, we will take the benefits of the industrial chain. ”

It is reported that while issuing the notice of unmanned manned demonstration application, Yizhuang has also introduced management measures for unmanned testing and commercialization. In this regard, Wei Dong said: "We believe that in about a quarter or so, at least in the second half of the year, we will definitely achieve unmanned commercialization." At the end of this year or next year, I believe that the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will achieve commercialization. We hope that by 2030, 50% of the operating vehicles in the country will support autonomous driving. By 2040, the operating vehicles in the country may not call a car at that time, but a robot. ”