【Editor's Note】This article is authorized by the author himself to be published exclusively and originally, and reprinted from the public account "Kuzhi Jiaotong University". The author is Wang Gaigai, founder and dean of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank (GDYT), and the director of the "China Diplomatic Risk Assessment" project of the Great Diplomatic Think Tank.
May 9 every year will be an important time node for Russia. The United States and Europe are trying to escalate the war because it is a contest between two systems, and the future of the so-called liberal capitalist system is at stake. If Russia falls, liberal capitalist institutions will take advantage of the world.2 If Russia remains, the credibility of liberal capitalism will be severely cracked down. Therefore, neither for Russia nor for the West will allow themselves to lose the war.
Now, U.S. and European governments are concerned that the conflict could soon escalate into a broader war, turning into a more immediate conflict between Washington and Moscow. U.S. officials said, "After Russia's strikes on Odessa in recent days, Putin has set his sights on the entire Black Sea coastline and the United States is trying to prepare for everything that is possible." ”
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin announced at the end of a secret visit to Ukraine that the U.S. goal is to see Russia "weakened" to the point where it can no longer invade Ukraine. In terms of financial warfare, the United States seems to be further sacrificing more lethal weapons. Congress and the White House agreed to "confiscate property related to Russian kleptocracy and transfer it to Ukraine." By killing two birds with one stone, the United States not only does not have to pay for itself, but also tries to force the Russian oligarchs to oppose Putin. U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning a few days ago that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia also has powerful economic weapons in its hands. What really has a greater impact on the world economy is not oil, but Russian agricultural products. In the future, countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America will face famine, causing further instability.
It is worth noting that the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war may affect China, and China should take precautions in advance. Western countries fear that they could be embroiled in war or worry about some sort of uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait. Although China currently has no plans to attack the island of Taiwan, Western think tanks are still engaged in heated discussions. For some time to come, the United States will continue to assert its ability to protect the island of Taiwan, so much so that it is likely to commit certain serious provocative acts. U.S. House Speaker Pelosi postponed her "visit" to Taiwan because of her new crown infection, but it is not ruled out that she will suddenly announce her visit plans one day in the future. Pelosi, 82, is said to be preparing to step down as House Democratic leader after this year's congressional midterm elections, effectively increasing the likelihood that she will take risky action before retiring.
British Foreign Secretary Traus said Britain wanted to "globalize" NATO. She believes NATO should expand to cover the Indo-Pacific region and provide protection for the island of Taiwan. The German media ridiculed Britain as the world's sixth-largest economy, economically and militarily overwhelmed by China, but Britain "tried to persuade the Chinese government to abide by the rules of the international system", which may not be achieved. There is also the view that NATO does not need to expand into the Indo-Pacific region because AUKUS itself is already a multilateral alliance.
The solomon islands' previous normal exchanges with China have made the United States nervous and maliciously interpreted by the United States. On April 26, U.S. State Department Secretary for Asia-Pacific Assistant Conda threatened that if China developed military capabilities in the host country, the United States would not rule out the possibility of using force. The United States, Australia, and Japan frequently send officials to lobby and threaten their respective governments. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said China would step on Australia's "red line." Australian officials say the security deal not only raises security concerns for Australia, but also puts the Morrison administration under urgent pressure at home as australia holds elections. The agreement was morrison's worst diplomatic battle and could benefit Labour. It is not excluded that Morrison may take some kind of risky action against China.
In finance, U.S. think tanks have begun to study how to impose sanctions on China in the future. Some researchers have even openly proposed that in the future, China's infrastructure projects and deposits overseas can be used as a bargaining chip to blackmail China. Russia does not have as many projects abroad, but based on what the United States has done this time, the above views are not necessarily empty. Some domestic non-governmental scholars believe that the United States will not give China time to prepare for sanctions evasion, and may impose pre-emptive sanctions on China as soon as possible.