Source: Financial Sector News
【Overseas Information】
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower, with the Dow down 2.38% at 33240.18 points, the S&P 500 down 2.81% at 4175.2 points, and the NASDAQ down 3.95% at 12490.74 points. Nike fell nearly 6 percent, and Boeing fell more than 5 percent, leading the dow. Tech stocks suffered a crush, with Tesla falling more than 12 percent.
COMEX gold futures closed up 0.55% at $1906.4 an ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 0.59% at $23.59 an ounce.
International oil prices rose collectively, with the June 2022 U.S. oil contract up 3.22% at $101.71/b, and the cloth oil July 2022 contract up 2.65% at $104.87/b.
Treasury yields were lower across the board, with 3-year Treasury yields down 14.9 basis points at 2.665%, 5-year Treasury yields down 12.9 basis points at 2.739%, 10-year Yields down 10 basis points at 2.727%, and 30-year Yields down 6.2 basis points at 2.83%.
Hong Kong stocks opened low and weakened unilaterally, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 3.73% at 19869.34 points, the Hang Seng Technology Index down 4.87% at 3806.19 points, and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index down 4.13% at 6684.73 points. The market traded HK$134.843 billion. All sectors fell across the board, raw materials, energy, consumption, technology sectors fell in the front, Haidilao fell nearly 16% to lead the blue chip, China Aluminum, China Merchants Bank and other large-value industry leaders fell more than 10%. Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) closed down 4.42% to trade $183 million.
【Domestic Hot News】
The Central Financial and Economic Commission called for comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, accelerating the construction of new infrastructure, and upgrading the level of traditional infrastructure. It is necessary to appropriately advance the layout of infrastructure that is conducive to leading industrial development and maintaining national security, and at the same time grasp the degree of advanced construction.
The CSRC issued the Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of the Public Fund Industry, which put forward 16 specific opinions on the development of public funds. The "Opinions" proposes to support eligible fund management companies to set up subsidiaries, specializing in public REITs, equity investment, fund investment advisory, pension financial services and other businesses.
It is rumored that the "national team" has significantly reduced its holdings. People close to the regulator said that in the first quarter of this year, the overall shareholding of relevant institutions was stable and there was no reduction in holdings.
Guizhou Moutai reported a quarterly profit exceeding expectations. Guizhou Moutai disclosed a quarterly report that the operating income of the quarter was 32.296 billion yuan, an increase of 18.43% year-on-year; the net profit was 17.245 billion yuan, an increase of 23.58%.
The central bank said that it was concerned about some recent fluctuations in the financial market, mainly affected by investor expectations and sentiment. At present, the mainland's economic fundamentals are good, the economic endogenous growth potential is huge, and substantial progress has been made in preventing and resolving financial risks.
On April 26, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, with a winning interest rate of 2.10%. Wind data shows that 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day.
According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 18,604.47 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9% year-on-year; the total profit was 1,018.74 billion yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year. At the end of March, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 64.3%, up 0.1 percentage points.
【Brokerage ETF (512000) Latest Capital Situation】
On April 26, the market sentiment vane broker ETF (512000) fell 4.92% to 0.811 yuan, falling to a new low since February 2019, with transactions exceeding 900 million yuan. In the process of falling, funds are eager to buy, and the level-2 market shows that the net inflow of brokerage ETFs (512000) throughout the day exceeded 251 million yuan. Of the five trading days as of yesterday, a total of 4 trading days showed a net inflow of more than 590 million yuan, and the total net inflow as of today was 840 million yuan.
During the year, the securities sector continued to adjust, and funds were actively deployed through the securities company ETF (512000). According to the data, as of April 26, the share of securities ETFs (512000) has increased by 5.061 billion since the beginning of the year, ranking first in the industry ETFs in the whole market, with a total net inflow of 4.947 billion yuan!
In terms of the two financings, the securities company ETF (512000) raised 168 million yuan on April 26, and the latest financing balance was 1.9 billion yuan.
【Latest Views of Mainstream Institutions】
1. Industrial Securities pointed out that the current valuation and profitability of the securities sector are obviously divergent, and excessive mismatch breeds sufficient space for repair. From the perspective of the investment framework of securities companies, the current policy cycle continues to maintain a loose tone, and the market cycle has surpassed the cost performance of blue-chip stocks from the perspective of the equity-to-debt ratio model; in 2021, the ROE of the securities industry has increased to 7.8%, a new high since 2018, but affected by the downturn in the equity market, the PB valuation of the securities sector has dropped to about 1.4 times, and there is a significant mismatch between the securities industry and the ROE. The brokerage sector has entered the left configuration time point, but the short-term upward catalysis of stock prices also needs to be coordinated by the market environment.
2, Caixin Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the valuation level of securities companies and its profitability correlation is obvious, in recent years, with the decline in the profitability of the traditional brokerage business of securities companies, the business model gradually shifted to heavy assets, the industry ROE elasticity is declining, to a certain extent, the valuation elasticity is limited, and the β attributes are weakening. In the future, the securities sector still has a certain degree of growth, the ROE level of listed securities companies is expected to be more stable, the ROE level of large investment banks and securities companies is expected to reach 10-12% in the future, and the ROE of successful securities companies in wealth management transformation is expected to maintain about 20%.
3. Western Securities pointed out that from the perspective of securities companies that have disclosed their annual reports, wealth management business and self-operated investment business are the core driving forces for performance growth. The continuous transfer of resident wealth to the equity market has promoted the growth of institutional asset management scale, which is reflected in the growth of securities companies' wealth management business income (revenue from consignment sales of financial products + institutional trading commission + profit contribution from holding public offerings, etc.) and the blowout of demand for institutional comprehensive financial services (over-the-counter derivatives, etc.). The sharp compression of credit impairment losses has increased the net profit margin of securities companies, and the substantial growth of wealth and investment banking business line personnel has led to an increase in employee compensation. Looking forward to 2022, with the advancement of the comprehensive registration system reform, it is expected that the market will continue to expand in the future, promoting the profit growth of head securities companies.
4. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining the stability of the capital market, proposed to actively introduce policies favorable to the market, and expressed its position on many issues such as macroeconomics, Chinese stocks, platform economy, real estate and the stability of Hong Kong's financial market. The meeting stated that it has a significant positive role in stabilizing market confidence, and the follow-up policy is worth looking forward to. The wealth management track is the strongest beta of brokers at the moment, with both growth attributes. Under the background of the decline in the proportion of brokerage business income in traditional brokerage business and the reduction in the allocation of stock self-operated disks, the overall beta attribute of the brokerage sector has gradually weakened, and the large wealth management track or the strongest beta varieties of securities companies.
5. Guotai Junan believes that the entire market has had countless reasons to worry, either based on credit expansion that is less than expected, or based on inflation caused by the periphery, or based on passive downgrading of absolute returns, resulting in a deterioration of the transaction structure. In this process, the beta attributes of the non-silver sector make the sector share price bear the brunt of it. We can't accurately predict the real future beyond what can be known as non-bank researchers, but from our recent roadshow, pessimistic expectations are sufficient, and we recommend increasing our holdings in the non-bank sector.
【A-share mainstream ETF special tip: Brokerage ETF (512000) | A-share market vane】
【The performance of the securities industry has increased for three consecutive years, and the number of 10 billion net profit brokers in 2021 has reached a record】
Capital market construction is at an unprecedented height: under the new cycle of deepening reform in the capital market, the regulator will continue to increase the proportion of direct financing as one of the main goals of capital market reform. The acceleration of the comprehensive registration system and the establishment of the hammer of the Beijing Stock Exchange further confirm that the construction of the capital market is at an unprecedented new height, which is conducive to the establishment of the mainland's multi-level capital market, and greatly improving the scale of direct financing also brings a broader business space and imagination to securities companies.
The performance has increased for three consecutive years, verifying the continuation of the industry's high prosperity: Data from the China Securities Association shows that in 2021, the entire industry of securities companies will achieve a net profit of 191.119 billion yuan, an increase of 21.32% year-on-year. The constituent stocks of the China Securities All-Index Securities Company Index tracked by the securities company ETF (512000) performed significantly better than the industry, and as of April 25, the total attributable profit of the 42 listed securities companies that have disclosed performance data was 198.4 billion yuan, an increase of 31.24% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2021, the net profit attributable to the mother of all constituent stocks was as high as 160.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23% year-on-year, which exceeded the same period in 2015 and refreshed the profit record of the first three quarters of the highest in history!
In 2021, the net profit of 10 billion securities companies was officially expanded to 10: the head brokerage performed particularly well, as of the latest on April 25, a total of 10 securities companies attributable to the mother net profit exceeded 10 billion, an increase of 5 over 2020, continuing to refresh the historical record. The net profit attributable to THE mother of CITIC Securities in 2021 exceeded 20 billion yuan, reaching 22.979 billion yuan, an increase of 54.2% year-on-year.
The performance highlights of small and medium-sized securities companies are various: small and medium-sized securities companies show strong performance flexibility, among them, the annual net profit of "high base content" Orient Securities is 5.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.27%; the net profit attributable to zhongyuan securities in 2021 is as high as 385.57% year-on-year, and the net profit is 506 million yuan; the net profit of Everbright Securities, Founder Securities and Guolian Securities has increased by 50% or more; Pacific and Guosheng Financial Holdings have achieved a turnaround.
【Brokerage ETF Linkage Fund: Securities Stock Investment Internet Express】
The broker-dealer ETF has a linked fund (A share code 006098/C share code 007531), which also tracks the China Securities Index (index code 399975), providing investors on the Internet with an efficient investment tool for buying and selling 49 brokerage stocks in one click. Investors without an on-exchange securities account can redeem the Class A shares and C shares of the ETF-linked funds of the securities company on the Internet sales platform 7 * 24, and the minimum 10 yuan can be bought, which is convenient and efficient.
【Risk Warning】The underlying index tracked by the securities ETF is the China Securities Index (399975), which is based on June 29, 2007 and released on July 15, 2013, and the historical performance of the index is based on the current component structure of the index. Its index constituents are subject to change, and its backtesting historical results are not indicative of future performance. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, reviews, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any investment behavior at their own discretion. In addition, any opinions, analyses and forecasts contained herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the Reader and the Company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of the contents herein. The fund's investment is risky, the past performance of the fund is not representative of its future performance, investment needs to be cautious. IMF investments are not equivalent to bank deposits, and no guarantee of a certain profitability, nor a minimum return.