Source: Gelonghui APP
At the beginning of the 20th century, William Randolph Hearst built a media empire with 25 daily newspapers, 24 magazines, 12 radio stations and 2 film companies.
After Musk announced on April 4 that he had bought a 9.2 percent stake in Twitter for $2.89 billion, becoming the social media's largest shareholder, the New York Times described him as the embodiment of the new era of the last century newspaper tycoon.
Based on Hearst, Orson Wells created the first masterpiece in film history, Citizen Kane. After officially spending $44 billion on Twitter yesterday, citizen Musk is only one step away from becoming the "best actor" of this era.
It's not about making money, it's about human civilization! Musk on why he bought Twitter: Click on the video below to learn more??
01
You love me
One is one of the most influential or even none of the most influential social platforms in the English-speaking world, and the other is the world's richest man with 84.4 million followers on the platform.
Compared with the expectations of the outside world, the two sides of the century hand in hand seems to be a little too smooth. Twitter didn't even bother to pretend to be a symbolic struggle, hurriedly carried out two rounds of simple pulling, and then gave up more than a decade of business commitment to people.
Musk's interest in buying Twitter dates back to 2017, and the real time to put this matter on the agenda and continue to push forward is from March this year, while low-key stock holdings, while high-intensity tweets to create public opinion.
Entering April, the entire acquisition plan entered the fast lane like clockwork. First of all, musk became the largest shareholder of Twitter on the 4th, and then the current CEO of Twitter, Parag officially announced that he invited Musk to join the board of directors, and then on the 9th, Musk tweeted to give up the chairman seat of Twitter, and the first round of pulling was over.
On April 13, Musk launched a general attack on Twitter. On the same day, Twitter's documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission were exposed, showing that Musk formally made a takeover offer, planning to fully acquire Twitter for $54.2 per share, with a total price of about $43 billion. Two days later, Twitter announced that the board had unanimously approved the launch of the "Poison Pill Program" to combat Musk's "hostile takeover."
The second round of tug-of-war lasted less than two weeks before Twitter accepted an offer to buy and take private Musk for the $54.20 deal he offered. The deal will close in 2022, after which Twitter will delist from the New York Stock Exchange as a privately held company.
Looking back at Twitter's entire "selling" process, it will be found that the social king tried to create a shy image through symbolic half pushing and half pushing, but instead revealed a sense of excitement that wanted to refuse to return the favor, and even did not bother to bargain for the initial $54.20, which may be related to the trend of the entire US stock market.
Since the end of March, the S&P 500 has fallen by 8%, the Dow Jones by 4%, and the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen by even 12%, with a cumulative plunge of nearly 1800 points.
After several rounds of bulls and bears, Buffett came to the conclusion of "inflation without bull market", from the perspective of the US inflation rate refreshing 40 consecutive years of new highs, gradually entering a runaway state, the next few months the US stock market is likely to continue the trend of continuous plunge, after all, the Fed's really powerful interest rate hike balance sheet combination has not yet been played.
In this context, looking at the trend of Twitter's stock price, the biggest decline since October last year is more than 50%, which is in line with the overall trend of the US stock Internet sector. But since the scandal with Musk came out in March, it has bucked the market and walked out of a nearly 60% increase.
Until yesterday's acquisition announcement, Twitter closed up 5.7%, after-hours stock price continued to rise to $51.9, still a long way from Musk's $54.2 quote, from the perspective of both sides, the $7 billion premium is a number that everyone can accept, after all, before the arrival of the foreseeable overall bear market, selling at a high point is definitely a smart choice.
Regarding the investment and risks of the U.S. new energy industry, the GLG research team has a detailed and in-depth research report, and interested readers can add glenway assistants (see figure below) to get the details.
Of course, for Musk, the significance of buying Twitter is not just to maintain freedom of speech.
02
People don't fall
Compared with active users, Twitter is not as good as Facebook and INS, Zuckerberg's two social apps last year added up to nearly 4.3 billion monthly active users, and Twitter only 460 million. More popular than in Gen Z, Twitter is also less popular than TikTok and Snapchat.
It is such a platform with backward data and limited valuation compared with similar products, but it has a huge influence in the world in terms of publicity capabilities.
The reason may be that the text exchange platform is inferior to the photo or video sharing platform in terms of entertainment, but when used as a promotional tool, it can carry a greater amount of information and greater seriousness and flexibility. So whether in business or politics, Twitter has always been a battleground for all ages and all user groups.
After buying Twitter, we can foresee how the social expert Musk will continue to play with his tens of millions of big V accounts.
The first step is to further unleash twitter's yet-to-be-fully tapped influence. For example, new features such as tweet editing buttons and audio and video live broadcasts have been added to the product side, and the previous overly conservative and strict ban standards have been completely reformed on the operation side, and it has become a true "citizen square for free speech" in the form of "no restrictions".
In the filing to the SEC, Musk also directly expressed the proposition that Twitter must be privatized to be more "loose" in content regulation, the most direct example is the unbanning of Trump's Twitter account, the former president was previously banned by Twitter and other platforms due to congressional riots, and then launched a new social platform "Truth Social" and said that he would not return to Twitter.
The second is Musk's duty as an entrepreneur. As for Twitter itself, Musk has just become a major shareholder and has made a number of changes to Twitter's first subscription service, "Twitter Blue", including lower prices and banning ads, which shows Musk's tendency to shift Twitter's monetization model from relying on ads to paying for content.
For other areas, it is to continue to enhance the ability to monetize by strengthening the media offensive, and the most intuitive performance is that the virtual currency market has ushered in a surge under the stimulation of Musk's acquisition of Twitter, especially Dogecoin once jumped by more than 30% in the short term.
Musk's suggestions for changes to Twitter Blue included the option to pay for tipping and subscriptions with Dogecoin, but was rejected by Twitter. Musk has been standing for Dogecoin since last year, and it is not ruled out that he will continue to use Twitter to maintain the heat of Dogecoin in the future.
Of course, both Twitter and Dogecoin are just side hustles, and Tesla is Musk's foothold. A few days ago, Tesla released its first quarter financial report, with total revenue of $18.756 billion, an increase of 81% year-on-year; total gross profit of $5.46 billion, an increase of 147% year-on-year. Vehicle deliveries exceeded 310,000 in the first quarter, up 68% year-on-year, again due to limited capacity.
No matter which indicator, Tesla is a leader in the field of new energy vehicles. As for the reason, in Musk's own words the other day: Tesla is worth $1 trillion, while advertising spend is 0. Unlike other car brands that are as keen to make a splash at the Super Bowl, orders are still soaring, which is probably the arrogance of Twitter's big V.
For Musk's 84 million fans, the pompous and down-to-earth personality and pragmatic dreamer image organically combined into the entrepreneur's unique personal IP, and eventually connected with Tesla.
The acquisition of Twitter will undoubtedly once again consolidate Musk's personality, the public image is available for consumption, and it will eventually be reflected not only in Tesla's stock price, but also in Musk's political future.
03
Towards the White House?
Since Tesla's fire, speculation about Musk's presidential campaign has been endless, especially Trump's rise to power, making this speculation seem even more reasonable:
You're a real estate mogul, I'm a new energy vehicle guy; you're a Twitter influencer, I'm also a Twitter influencer; I'm still more handsome and younger. Since you can be president, then I can also go.
Coupled with the fact that Musk has now bought Twitter, it has added another layer of buff to this logical chain. This brings us to the American political system, the nature of presidential elections, which is an expensive money game.
In 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court lifted the cap on political contributions from organizations and individuals, making presidential elections even more expensive. In 2004 and 2008, elections cost only $1 billion and $2.4 billion. By 2016, the Trump-Hillary showdown had cost more than $6 billion.
As is customary, it is generally the party who raises more money who wins the election. In 2004, for example, George W. Bush raised $367 million to defeat Gore, who raised $328 million; in 2008, Obama raised $600 million over McCain, who raised only $400 million; in 2012, Obama again defeated Romney, who had only $440 million, with $720 million.
Trump broke that convention. In the final election showdown, Trump raised only $440 million, while Hillary Clinton raised $760 million with the support of Wall Street and Silicon Valley. However, in the end, Trump completed a big reversal from 80% behind the polls to 1% ahead, and Twitter played a role in it.
In presidential elections, most of the political contributions are used for image packaging and advertising marketing. In the past, traditional media monopolized propaganda channels, and well-funded electors certainly had more advantages, but the rise of social media such as Twitter has not only reduced the cost of propaganda, but also provided a channel for social media experts like Trump to "communicate" with the people, not just "publicize".
In the process of communicating with voters, Trump has established and continuously strengthened his image as a spokesman for "populism", which is in opposition to the "political correctness" trend that is popular in American society. The former represents the impoverished middle-aged white Americans and the traditional capitalist family that insists on the supremacy of white male power, while the latter speaks out for the financial elite and tech upstarts on Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
After the end of the Cold War, economic globalization made the interest-maximizing American capital gradually leave the manufacturing industry and turn to the financial and Internet markets, and since then, the greater the gap between the rich and the poor, the more serious the social class differentiation. But American workers who have lost jobs are still a political force to be reckoned with, and Trump's policy of returning manufacturing is in line with their interests.
Musk itself is the best representative of the advanced manufacturing industry in the United States, and the maneuverability is even greater. Coupled with his positioning as a retail investor in last year's "Wall Street War" to the criticism of political correctness a while ago that Netflix could not see, he has always strengthened his positioning as the "vanguard of anti-political correctness", and continued and carried forward Trump's "Twitter governance" line in a more grounded and logical way.
Considering that he himself is a staunch supporter of Trump, all the more so.
04
epilogue
Opponents often refute Musk's "presidential campaign" on the grounds that Musk was born in South Africa and did not qualify for the presidency, but the first paragraph of the Declaration of Independence clearly states that "all men are created equal", which is the basis of the US Constitution and the norm for the operation of American society.
Not to mention that the constitution of "presidential candidates must be born in the homeland" is inherently vague, such as Ted, the nominee of the 2016 Republican presidential election, who was born in Canada, and mcCain, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, who was born in the Panama Canal. Even if one day Americans decide to amend the Constitution in the name of "freedom and human rights," it would be perfectly justified.
At that time, the bohemian and stupid boy Hirst was elected to the US House of Representatives twice and has set an example. Musk now faces the biggest choice, whether to find and support a political spokesman or to run for president himself.
Judging from the remarks that Musk packaged starlink products and sent them to Ukraine at the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and repeatedly issued a stand-up request with Putin on Twitter, and the remarks that all Russian nuclear bombs could be sent back to Russia, Musk's demand for political interests through starlink's military threats has become quite obvious.