Written by / Long Shihui
Edit/black
Design / Zoi.
Unexpectedly, an online concert by Cui Jian, the father of Chinese rock and roll, could attract 46 million people at the same time. After the 70s and 80s shouted Ye Qinghui, even the young people after the 90s and 00s who did not know who Cui Jian was before were also added to the list of songs after listening to "Flower Room Girl". A young man after 00 told Che Lizi that he did not know that there was a pole fox car before, but after seeing Cui Fitness, ARCFOX S had a strong sense of science fiction, and curiosity drove him to sign up for a test drive.
Of course, the people who order and buy a car after watching a concert will only be a minority, but in this national rock night, there are many netizens who have been banned by the epidemic, and they have gained warm comfort, courage and hope in it. "Moisturizing things are silent", this is also the charm of cross-border marketing can often go out of the circle.
Therefore, using offline test drives or even conversion orders to quantify the actual help of this marketing event to Jihu is utilitarian and secular. Che Lizi believes that the enlightenment of Cui Jian X Jihu's cross-border marketing to the automotive industry lies in how to create value for customers, not just sell products. After the car companies experienced the epidemic to resume work and production, in the face of a comprehensive adjustment of the rhythm of new product listings, the rise in costs caused by "lack of core and less electricity", and the unfavorable development of local auto shows and marketing activities, especially at the moment when consumers' risk aversion mentality is still very heavy, how car companies quickly rebuild the confidence of the market will affect the rhythm of the rest of this year.
The risk aversion is even worse than in 2019
At present, in addition to the price increase of electric vehicles and the price of oil, what else will hit a consumer's desire to buy a car?
On the surface, it is a long waiting cycle. According to the official website, the Xiaopeng P7 booking cycle is "expected to be delivered in 20-21 weeks after signing the contract", while the longest Model 3 rear-wheel drive version has a delivery cycle of up to 24 weeks. The situation of fuel vehicles will be relatively better, but production and logistics are affected by the epidemic, the order delivery cycle varies from 1-2 months, considering that the supply chain cannot return to normal in the short term, the vehicle delivery cycle is expected to be extended, and consumers who just need half a year usually have two situations, either no longer need, or find other cars that do not have a long waiting cycle.
Even deeper is the consumption intention and confidence that has been closed or unclear by the epidemic and weakened by the weakening of the economy. Other consumer goods are shelved by residents who want to consume but have no place to spend. The bulk consumer goods such as automobiles are a type of consumption project that residents want to consume but do not have the confidence to spend, thus stuck or downgrading the budget. In 2018-2019 before the epidemic, the world economy was sluggish, and the Chinese auto market transitioned to the stock consumer market, when there were more than 20 car companies with sales declines of more than 50%, while several Japanese brands ushered in a contrarian growth, because the Japanese cars with lower fuel consumption and economical and practical consumption catered to the risk aversion mentality of most consumers when buying a car.
This round of epidemic and the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and 2021 have similar places, industrial output is affected to a low extent, and the negative impact is concentrated in the automobile, general equipment and other manufacturing industries; statistics show that in March this year, the retail sales of automobiles have declined year-on-year, completing 367.3 billion yuan in the month, down 7.5% year-on-year, a decline of 4% higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society in the same period, accounting for 10.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society. This round of epidemic and the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and 2021 have similar places, industrial output is affected to a low extent, and the negative impact is concentrated in the automobile, general equipment and other manufacturing industries; statistics show that in March this year, the retail sales of automobiles have declined year-on-year, completing 367.3 billion yuan in the month, down 7.5% year-on-year, a decline of 4% higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society in the same period, accounting for 10.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society.
However, since entering April, after the regional epidemic in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other regions has been sporadic, the biggest change between this round of epidemic and the past is that after more than 2 years of regional epidemic impact, both the macroeconomic trend and individual consumer confidence are facing the problem of insufficient motivation. The "risk aversion" of the consumer market is now heavier than when the economy was down in 2019.
The statistics of the association also roughly show this trend, the retail and wholesale data of major car companies in the first 2 weeks of April refreshed the lowest value since 2020, with an average daily retail sales of 25,000 units, down 35% year-on-year, while the wholesale volume was only 24,000 units, down 44% year-on-year, the decline exceeded expectations, and the comprehensive estimate of retail sales in April was 1.1 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year. Among them, in Jilin, Shanghai, Guangdong and other key national automobile production and sales markets, dealers respond to entering stores and transactions have decreased significantly, and offline test drives and user services have not been carried out smoothly. It is foreseeable that after this round of epidemic has passed, the resumption of work and production, overtime and overtime in collaboration with the supply chain, and the acceleration of the pace of marketing can be achieved under the efforts of the entire automobile industry, and the production, release, sales and other links that fell in March and April will be "chased" back.
However, whether the market sales can have a "V" type retaliatory consumption like the second quarter of 2020, but it is not all controlled by the car company, and consumer confidence is the key to it. In the long run, market confidence is like an "invisible hand", affecting the consumption power of the auto market in the second half of 2022 or even next year. After all, "faith is more important than gold"
The more difficult it is, the more demanding it is
The haze of the epidemic is affecting the economy and people's livelihood, reconstructing everyone's living habits and consumption levels, of which the most influential group of people is the group of young people who have a strong desire to consume, but have insufficient consumption ability, as well as middle-aged people who have consumption ability but have not yet classified automobile consumption as just needed, and they have built a mainstream user portrait of 100,000-300,000 models together. The first thing that car companies and local governments must do is how to boost the car purchase intentions of these people, which is related to improving the income level of residents on the one hand, and on the other hand, it depends on the matching degree between consumption power and consumption space.
On April 14, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed policy measures to promote consumption: "All localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the gradual increase in car increment indicators that have been implemented to restrict purchases." Support the consumption of new energy vehicles and the construction of charging piles. "This is a recently announced consumption promotion measure at the macro level, which undoubtedly plays a positive role in promoting the car industry with declining production and sales." Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also said: "We recommend that government departments introduce policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, and effective purchase tax halving policies. This is also "the end time for new energy vehicles to be exempted from purchase tax is approaching", and the industry leaders are calling for the consumption space to match the recovering consumption capacity.
On the market side, the more difficult it is, the more demanding it is. This year, car companies do not boldly play some tricks in marketing methods, and they are doomed to be unable to go out of the circle. Recently due to the postponement of the Beijing Auto Show and "piled up" online intensive release of new cars, you will find that they seem to be like "storm in the teacup", the audience is running, before singing the opera have to find people back.
In fact, since 2020, the phenomenon of "net red cars" and "wild consumption" in the hot car circle can be seen that the car market has never lacked traffic, and what is missing is the ability to tap endogenous potential. Wuling Hongguang MINI, Tank 300, Xena, BYD Song... All of them are models that create new value for consumers, so they are also synonymous with high spontaneous topics in the private sector, but unfortunately, 2022 is a third of the way through, and a new car with such potential has not yet appeared.
But from the perspective of car companies, the elements that consumers play at the moment have not stopped for a moment in the first four months of 2022: the name of the model that has hollowed out the mind, the special edition model modification, high-end off-road, A0-class scooter and other personalized models have not been included, but the effect is not great, because following the trend has become the "aesthetic fatigue" of the public. So why che Lizi will feel very kind and excited when she sees the Extreme Fox crossover Cui Jian rock concert. Because there has not been a marketing event in the car circle for a long time, it can drive the spontaneous attention and expectation of a wide range of ordinary people.
Judging from the new cars and new technologies that have been released so far, this year will be the "pure electricity" year of the joint venture and the independent "plug and mix" year, but between products and products, the situation of homogeneous inner coil has begun to appear. Especially in the latter's independent insertion and mixing market, the early dividends are basically eaten by BYD, if other independent car companies do not seek change, rethinking can bring value to users, and how to reach consumers in the increasingly difficult market competition?
Write at the end
In the past week, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production, and the automobile field is gradually returning to its former vitality. For the automotive circle that has experienced the wind and rain, although the regional epidemic is involved in the whole body, the situation will be more difficult in the second half of the year, but regaining and cultivating the consumer confidence of the market is more like a marathon, at which time car companies need to "change" to respond.
-End-