The Tunisian "Jasmine Revolution" of 2010-2011 sparked a wave of turmoil throughout the Arab world, known in history as the Arab Spring, and many countries still hang in its negative shadow to this day. Against this backdrop, Tunisia became the first "new democracy", and the "new" government of the Baath Party, which came to power in the midst of turmoil, deepened ties with Turkey and other forces that had risen in the Arab Spring. After the new President Saeed came to power in 2019, Tunisia's national policy and foreign relations have undergone new changes, so that over the years, the North African country has tried and explored several times on the road of internal governance and crisis response.
Infographic: Current Tunisian President Keith Said
I. The main governance of the current President Saeed
Following the death of President Berji Cade Essebsi, who came to power in 2014, Tunisia held a high-profile presidential election in July 2019, which was unexpectedly won by Keith Saeed, a political amateur and independent candidate. According to several experts, Saeed's victory was largely due to the general weariness and disappointment of the people with the government, believing that the government did not fulfill the promises of reform and change promised to the people during the "Jasmine Revolution".
After taking office, Saeed began to pursue a policy of consolidating his power and actively established close relations with the military and police leaders. By the summer of 2021, Saeed had concentrated enough power in his hands to launch an attack on the Baathist party's dominant parliament. On July 25, on the occasion of the national celebration of Republic Day, Said, with the support of the masses, removed the prime minister and some key members of the government and suspended the work of parliament. The people's rally also sent calls for regime reform and the bringing to justice corrupt officials and those who have failed to respond to the pandemic and improve socio-economic conditions. President Said has shown a strong personal side by striking at the backlash to curb parliamentary corruption and political incitement. He also exercised executive authority over the Office of the Prosecutor in defiance of the opposition of the judiciary. On February 13, 2022, Saeed issued a decree establishing the Provisional Supreme Judicial Council to replace institutions abolished during the reform period and give himself additional powers to control the country's highest judiciary, Al Jazeera reported.
Infographic: Scenic Tunisia is an important source of income from tourism
Second, the multiple dilemmas facing Tunisia
First, economic difficulties. It must be acknowledged that Tunisia's public finances have been depleted over the past few years by a variety of reasons, including political disputes. Tunisia's plight has been exacerbated by the pandemic, which has exacerbated the plight of Tunisia as a sharp decline in the flow of foreign tourists as an important source of income for the country, and the crisis in Ukraine, which has led to soaring fuel and food prices. Investment bank Morgan Stanley recently said it expects the Tunisian government to default on its loans.
The second is social unrest. The political crisis is also escalating amid the deteriorating economic situation, rising prices and unemployment, rising inflation and increasingly unsafe supplies of certain basic commodities and foodstuffs. According to Noureddine Taboubi, head of tunisia's federation of trade unions, the country is preparing to hold a strike of public sector workers to protest economic reforms proposed by the government and provide for a reduction in subsidies and wage funds. The General Union promised to announce the time of the strike soon.
The third is the dispute between the government and the government. On March 30, opposition forces, represented by a number of lawmakers whose work had been frozen by Said last summer, held an online meeting to decide to cancel the special measures announced by the president on July 25, 2021. Abdelkarim Harouni of the Ba'ath Party said 115 of the 121 MPs present at the meeting voted for the decision to cancel the president. In the eyes of the president, the MPs' practice was seen as an "attempted coup", and Said said in an interview with one of the Tunisian television channels, "No one knows what was discussed at that meeting, what ulterior motives were to be achieved ... It may be specifically designed to prepare for a coup d'état. ”
As a result, Saeed issued a decree dissolving parliament, and Attorney General Leila Jeffal applied to the attorney general to open an investigation into the MPs. According to local media reports, dozens of lawmakers have been summoned for questioning by the police. Under the Tunisian Constitution, the President may dissolve the Parliament, but has the obligation to immediately convene new elections, and the dissolved Parliament shall continue to perform its duties pending the holding of new elections. However, polls suggest that in the new election, the party that supported former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was ousted in 2011, could win. With this in mind, President Said announced that the country needed a new constitution and promised to hold parliamentary elections in December after the new constitution was passed.
Tunisia is located on the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, also known as the "Pearl of North Africa"
Third, the West intervenes in the situation in Tunisia
As the birthplace of the "Arab Spring" in that year, tunisia has always touched the nerves of all parties, and international factions have never interrupted their influence and intervention in various ways on the country.
One is the International Monetary Fund. In light of the financial crisis that is going on, tunisia launched negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February to secure about $400 million in aid for economic transformation. As a "condition", the Tunisian government will develop a broad reform program from 2022 to 2026, as requested by the International Monetary Fund. However, some of the North African nation's elites and political forces are cautious and wary of IMF aid, while predicting that the planned transition will further exacerbate the social and economic crisis. The Tunisian General Trade Union (UGTT) has announced that it has rejected all proposals that are detrimental to the lower middle class, especially measures to reduce wages and eliminate subsidies for basic foodstuffs. Nabiti, a political activist and leader of the Popular Movement Party, pointed to the unequal conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, he argues that the policies of the previously ruling Ba'ath Party have created the current Tunisian crisis, leaving the country entirely dependent on debt for its functioning.
Infographic: The International Monetary Fund occupies an important position in the international financial system
The second is the World Bank. The World Bank has approved $400 million in funding for emergency social protection support in Tunisia. The group said the money would be used to help 900,000 Tunisian families, or 30 percent of the country's population. This will help the country recover from a pandemic that has had a negative impact on the economy and health systems. The Tunisian government will receive the funds at the end of June, three months after the approval.
The third is the European Union. In the current chaotic situation, in order to ease the socio-political tensions in Tunisia, the European Union announced on March 29 that it would provide a loan of 450 million euros to the country. The EU expects the country to soon face an inevitable financial collapse without a bailout package.
The fourth is neighboring countries and regions. Tunisia's neighboring countries and regions are also closely following developments. In early March, Tunisia received a loan of €103.95 million from the African Development Bank (ADB) as part of a financing agreement for the second phase of the road infrastructure development plan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has actively supported the activities of the Baath Party, which has recently been fiercely critical of Said, and the two sides are intolerant. In response, Tunisian Foreign Minister Osman Gerandi accused Turkey of interfering in the country's internal affairs.
It remains to be seen whether Tunisia, facing the dual pressures of internal struggle and external intervention, will find a suitable way to quell the chaos and thus avoid a new wave of the "Arab Spring" here.