Image source @ Visual China
In the appearance of Wen |, the author | Zhang Yi chen cheng, and the editor | Fu Xiaoling Mu Mu
The market's cognition of the tide play blind box business is divided into two categories, one is retail logic, such as TopToy, X11, 52toys, etc.; the other is IP logic, specifically referring to bubble mart.
There is no doubt that the market favors the latter.
Under the aesthetic preference of capital, the latter story interpretation is wonderful: every IP will be a hen that constantly lays golden eggs and grows into a century-old evergreen tree. Investors imagined that this business was a good gift for their grandchildren.
However, the stock price, which lasted for more than a year, comparable to the 70% decline of Zhongcai, punctured this beautiful dream.
But it all seems to have been in vain. The table exterior suggests that this may be related to the type of IP.
In the past few months, the image IP "ice pier" staged the fastest popularity, the fastest "passing" - during the Winter Olympics "the whole people seek piers", absolutely top stream, and now reduced to "few people ask".
This year, Wikipedia's latest "Media Franchise Product Bestseller List" shows that among the world's most valuable IP top 30, the image IP is only Hello Kitty, and the others are content IP.
Remarks: The statistics date is January 3, 2022
From the randomly intercepted sample, from the perspective of crossing the cycle, the image IP is only 3.3% probabilistically speaking, which can be "left to the grandchildren".
This is a big taboo in investment, after all, a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
From this point of view, we believe that Bubble Mart continues to incubate new image IP and build an IP matrix, which is somewhat useless in extending the IP life cycle, and even has a negative impact.
This article will discuss both impact and breakthrough.
The explosive logic of continuous incubation is naturally low in valuation
At present, Bubble Mart has expanded from the original Molly and Pucky to molly, SKULLPANDA, Dimoo, Bunny, Little Sweet Bean, The Monsters, and Pucky.
The emergence of new IP, from the perspective of financial data, has indeed raised the company's overall revenue. This also explains why there is a view that continuous incubation of IP can solve the evergreen problem of Bubble Mart.
However, from a single category point of view, compared with the rapid revenue growth of new IP such as Bunny and SKULLPANDA, Molly's revenue growth rate has declined and fluctuated, and Pucky's revenue has experienced negative growth in 2021.
The simple understanding is that the increase of new IP is to a certain extent squeezing the life cycle of the old IP.
But it is also constantly creating new IP, and content IP is the complete opposite effect.
Taking Marvel as an example, every new film will drive a wave of previous IP fever when it is released. For example, in 2019, "Avengers 4" was a hit, and individual IPs such as Iron Man, Captain America, and Spider-Man have risen sharply.
Why, then, do the same path reap the opposite results? The problem is with the carrier.
Content IP is attached to content products such as movies, anime, and games, and each IP has its own communication story.
The story gives the IP a lot of room to extend, such as the introduction of new characters, or the extension of a certain role into a new IP.
In the case of Marvel, all its characters are placed in the same world view, and each hero series has its own story line, such as "Iron Man", "Captain America" and other series (only the first two), and intersects and interacts with each other - the "Avengers" series.
In this way, not only can mutual exposure increase the influence of individual IPs, but also broaden the boundaries - you may pay attention to the entire Marvel IP for the sake of the characters you love.
It can be seen that the "Avengers" series of movies that can best highlight the synergy effect of various heroes is the most popular.
In general, through content and stories, the content IP matrix can form a certain synergy effect and expand the influence.
However, in contrast, the image IP, in addition to the appearance image itself, does not have a story content carrier, that is, "empty of its surface, no soul".
Such characteristics determine that the image IP is easy to rely on creative design to win with "appearance", but due to the lack of content extension, consumers have limited feelings of betting.
For example, according to ai media consulting 2021Q1 data, 46.46% of consumers in China buy blind boxes based on creative design. In contrast, only 36.32% of consumers bought because they liked an IP/brand.
Without an emotional bond connection, even if the IP is set up and coordinated, it is difficult to achieve results.
For example, people love Hello Kitty, but few people know who Hello Kitty's boyfriend is and don't care about it at all.
Based on this, image IP should continue to maintain its influence and rely heavily on channel exposure.
However, the company's market and channel resources are limited, and it is inevitable to be thinner than the other - in the early stage, bubble Mart only has Molly and Pucky, which are naturally concentrated. However, new IPs continue to be introduced, and the focus of resources has changed.
In terms of joint names with external brands, in 2020-2021, the number of external joints of Bunny has increased from 2 times to 6 times, accounting for 1/4 of the number of joint names in 2021.
In the same interval, Molly's number of co-signatures dropped from 6 to 5; Pucky was even more tragic, falling from 5 to 2. The decline in exposure also has the impact of the above income fluctuations.
In summary, the core of the image IP is thin, and the bubble mart resources focus on and continue to incubate the IP, in fact, it is a blockbuster logic. This model is extremely explosive in the short term.
For example, fashion FMCG categories such as ZARA, and even Netflix's business, are supported by explosive logic.
However, we discussed in the article "Li Ning Tore off the National Tide Label with His Backhand" that the market valuation of such businesses is generally very low due to the volatility of product operations and the risks of strong substitution (plagiarism, imitation). It's not hard to see why Bubble Mart's stock price continues to fall.
However, the long life cycle of IP can increase the valuation of enterprises.
As shown below, Sanrio (Hello Kitty's parent company) has a PE of 82, almost twice as much as Bubble Mart, the same image IP company. Disney, which has a bunch of long-life content IP, has a PE of as high as 120.
Therefore, if Bubble Mart wants to achieve sustainability, it still has to return to how to extend the life cycle of IP and win with time. As a target of the same type in the industry, Sanrio's experience is of reference significance.
Anchor the emotional connection of content and extend the IP lifecycle
Matthew Ball, a former Amazon studio executive, once said that an entertainment company only does three things: create or tell stories, build love for those stories, and turn love into money.
What is revealed behind this is that content IP has a clear value anchor from beginning to end - the emotional connection with consumers, and relying on this emotional stickiness, we can continue to harvest feelings.
But the image IP has no story basis, which means that its value anchor cannot be fixed.
Here, we sort out the factors affecting value anchoring at different stages of development of image IP, and establish the following value anchoring model:
Below, we analyze them one by one.
In the early stage of promotion, the value anchor of image IP was memory points and freshness. At this stage, in order to quickly establish user cognition, a huge amount of exposure is required, that is, frequent "brushing of faces".
This was the case when Hello Kitty was launched in 1974.
According to the data, as long as kitty cats were not discredited by the cute and simple image of Kitty cats, Sanrio gave permission to use any product (except tobacco, alcohol and guns).
For example, in the mid-80s, when little girls from middle-class families were popular for learning piano, girls were eager to have a grand piano, so Hello Kitty, who played the grand piano, appeared.
In 1987, a high school girl wrote to Kitty's designers asking for Kitty, who belonged to adults. Immediately after that, Kiuy appeared in the store wearing a black and white fashionable outfit.
The IP image is densely exposed, and the hegemony occupies the attention of consumers.
Taking advantage of the chase, in 1975 Sanrio launched two more IP images, Melody and Gemini. In 1997, Melody became the most popular image of Japanese high school girls on the magazine poll, second only to Hello Kitty in popularity.
Under the establishment of consumer awareness and vigorous pursuit, Sanrio's income continued to rise from 1984 to 1990.
Back to Bubble Mart, the molly it first pushed, and the development of Pucky, Dimoo, etc., are very similar to Sanrio. In this way, its creation of long-life cycle IP actually has a certain basic support.
However, the joy of the first stage of running through is too late to taste, and the image IP will face the sequelae of strong exposure - aesthetic fatigue. During this period, income growth will slow due to weak demand.
As shown below, Sanrio's performance growth rate continued to decline from 1991 to 1995, and even negative growth for three consecutive years.
Bubble Mart
There is also a similar situation, as shown in the following figure, although the ip image is accelerating, but the revenue growth rate has slowed down compared with before.
Under the inevitable inertia of the industry, the market's value anchoring of IP shifts to brand influence - after all, the user's mind to the brand is formed, and IP can pass through the cycle.
So, how did Hello Kitty get through at this stage?
In 1995, as if overnight, Hello Kitty changed its image from the head flower, head shape, and even the possessed "goods", re-refreshing the consumer's cognitive impression. And then keep up with the fashion, and constantly adjust the detail image.
On the other hand, Matsu kazuo, a spokesman for sanrio, once mentioned that since the 1990s, There has been a trend in Japan and other Asian countries that people think that it is not naïve for adults to love objects with cartoon images.
This major change has allowed Hello Kitty's audience positioning to expand by leaps and bounds.
The demand is widely released, the matching image is refreshed, and Hello Kitty's brand mentality is formed. For example, someone described it as follows: "Hello Kitty is like a 'play pass' issued to adults to unleash their childlike side." ”
Thus, starting in 1998, Hello Kitty regained the first place in the Sanrio celebrity popularity list.
At the same time, from 1996 to 1998, Sanrio's revenue growth rate turned upward, and in 1998, it increased by 40% year-on-year.
At present, Bubble Mart also has some innovative images and consumer groups to break the circle.
For example, in 2021, for Molly and Yuki, the Mega Collection series of products will be launched - a total of 9 1000% SPACE MOLLY products and a variety of 400% products, and want to cross from the blind box circle to the tide play circle.
According to the latest announcement of Bubble Mart, Mega's product line will achieve a cumulative revenue of 178 million yuan in 2021, and also attract more than 8.7 million people to participate in the lottery.
However, the tide play group does not agree, thinking that Bubble Mart is still a blind box company. From the perspective of Baidu's popularity, its trend is indeed more consistent with the blind box than the tide play.
So why is that? The reason is that the limitations are different.
Hello Kitty came out at a time when Japanese animation art was on the rise, the animation industry was booming, and its popularity had not declined across the centuries. Think about how many Japanese anime you watched as a kid.
Based on this, although Hello Kitty is an image IP, it has the emotional card of the times by leveraging the east wind of animation art, and when it deepens the image again, in addition to resonance, it is also easy to evoke the user's mind.
In contrast, the concept of a blind box carried by Bubble Mart is only a marketing strategy, so Bubble Mart is labeled as a "blind box company without connotation". In this way, it crosses over to the more culturally valuable tide play category, which is equivalent to the mid-end to high-end upgrade, and the difficulty can be imagined.
However, the blind box has a limited cycle as a trend, and Bubble Mart must cross it to extend the IP life cycle. It's just that for now, running through may require a long-term process.
Sanrio, which successfully crossed the second stage and entered the Internet era, due to the prevalence of online retail, its physical exposure methods were impacted, and it fell into crisis again - after 2001, revenue was mostly negative growth.
Under the complexity of the competitive situation, the value anchoring of IP has shifted to the most resistant emotional empathy - it is also the core of content IP.
As a result, Sanrio embarked on the path of "light content".
For example, in 2017, the mobile game "Hello Sweet Days" was launched, which was set to collect Sanrio character dresses, props and dolls; and the anime "Sanrio Man", which tells the story of five high school boys and Sanrio IP images around and growing up together, giving connotation to the image IP.
In addition, in recent years, the licensing of large-scale games such as "Zhilong Labyrinth" and "Pocket Paradise" has also brought positive influences to Sanrio characters, and of course, huge copyright income.
Under the release of the new growth curve, Sanrio's sales reversed in 2020Q4, and profits also turned into profits in 2021Q3.
From this deduction, Bubble Mart also has to go through a similar path, and the content gives cultural value, which can also solve the problem of playing the circle to the tide.
In terms of action, Bubble Mart is indeed already preparing. For example, it invested in Wuhan Two Points Ten Culture Communication Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in animation IP research and development and brand operation; launched ONO, an IP with animation stories.
And the fulfillment of these "soul" initiatives for image IP may be the turning point of Bubble Mart - up or down.
brief summary
There has always been a view that the ability to build an IP matrix kingdom is the key to the sustainability of Bubble Mart.
But in fact, there is an essential difference between image IP and content IP. Content IP is disseminated through content stories such as movies and animations, and the matrix can form a synergy effect and extend the life cycle of a single IP.
Image IP has no content support, and the influence can only rely on strong exposure through channels. In this way, Bubble Mart continues to incubate explosive IP, which can only achieve short-term outbreaks, and at the same time squeeze the life cycle of old IP, which is equivalent to "drinking and quenching thirst".
And the business of the cultural industry must be a time to win. Therefore, how to add content to give "soul" to the image IP is the core issue of Bubble Mart's next step.