Source: Financial community
Investment essentials
Announcement Highlights:
1) In terms of revenue, Tesla achieved a total operating income of $18.756 billion in 2022Q1, +80.54%/+5.85% year-on-year, of which total automobile sales were $16.881 billion, +87.30%/+5.60% year-on-year, and automobile sales revenue was $16.193 billion, +86.02%/+5.57% year-on-year, respectively. Energy revenue in 2022Q1 was US$616 million, +24.70%/-10.47% year-on-year, respectively. 2) In terms of profit, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 3.318 billion US dollars in 2022Q1, +657.53%/+42.96% year-on-year, and a net profit margin attributable to the mother of 17.69%.
The performance of 2022Q1 exceeded market expectations, and the net profit of bicycles exceeded 10,000 US dollars.
In terms of delivery dimensions, Tesla's global delivery volume continues to grow. In 2022Q1, Tesla delivered 310048 units worldwide, +67.71%/+0.45% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of gross profit margin, the overall gross profit margin of 2022Q1 company was 29.11%, +7.79/+1.76pct year-on-year, respectively; of which the gross profit margin of automobile sales was 32.60%/38.92%, and the year-on-year ratio was +6.78/+2.29pct. The continuous improvement of gross profit margin in 2022Q1 is mainly due to: 1) the proportion of low-cost shipments in Shanghai factories has increased; 2) the cost reduction effect of Tesla's 4680 battery large-scale application is remarkable; 3) the price increase in the first quarter effectively transmits cost pressure to the downstream. Under the effect of scale effect, the gross profit of Tesla bicycles continued to grow; the expenses continued to decrease, and the net profit of bicycles exceeded 10,000 US dollars. The average price of Tesla bicycles in 2022Q1 was $54,400, +6.96%/+3.55% year-on-year, respectively; the gross profit of bicycles was $17,600, +46.98%/+12.14% year-on-year, maintaining continuous growth since 2020Q4 and setting a new high. As sales increased, the amortization of bicycle expenses continued to decline, and the net profit of bicycles continued to increase, with 2022Q1 being 10,700 US dollars, exceeding 10,000 US dollars for the first time. Abundant cash flow and strong hematopoietic capacity. Net cash flow from Tesla's operating activities in 2022Q1 was $3,995 million, +143.45%/-12.87% year-on-year, respectively, and the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was $18.040 billion, +1.79%/-0.57% year-on-year, respectively.
Capacity continues to expand, global deliveries continue to increase, and flywheels accelerate.
Tesla's current global fully operational factories include Shanghai and California, with a combined planned capacity of more than 1.05 million vehicles. In March 2022, Tesla's Berlin plant officially started production, mainly for the production of Model Y, the company is expected to reach an annual output of 500,000 units; in April 2022, Tesla's world's largest factory - Texas Gigafactory in the United States began production, only Model Y planned to reach an annual production capacity of 500,000 units, and is expected to officially produce Cyberterck, electric truck Semi, electric supercar Roadster 2 in 2023, and produce Model 3 for the eastern region of North America. Global deliveries are expected to exceed 1.5 million units in 2022, maintaining sustained high-speed growth. In the future, with the new production capacity and the launch of new products, global delivery is expected to maintain sustained high growth.
In 2022, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to reach 25%, and it will continue to develop at a high speed.
Tesla leads the global electric vehicle industry with "sustained high sales and profitability growth", and the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market is expected to continue to accelerate. We expect that in 2022, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China will be 5.55 million units, +68.4% year-on-year, corresponding to a penetration rate of 24.8%; the retail sales of compulsory insurance will be 5.05 million units, +74.6% year-on-year, and the retail caliber penetration rate will exceed 25% to 25.21%.
Investment Advice:
The short-term epidemic has brought fluctuations, and the logic of long-term optimism about the automotive sector is still valid. 8 major gold stocks in 2022: vehicle [Ideal Automobile + BYD + Xiaopeng Automobile + Great Wall Motor], parts [Tuopu Group (the core target of Tesla industry chain) + Desay SV + Huayang Group + Bethel]. Secondly, the vehicle [GAC Group + Geely Automobile + Changan Automobile + Weilai Automobile + SAIC + Xiaokang Shares + Jianghuai Automobile], parts [Echodi + Xusheng shares (the core target of Tesla's industrial chain) + Torch Technology + Fuyao Glass + China Auto Research + Huayu Automobile], pay attention to [Xingyu shares + Jifeng shares + Joyson Electronics].
Risk warning: Chip shortage impact exceeded expectations; passenger car price war exceeded expectations.
1
The performance of 2022Q1 exceeded market expectations, and the net profit of bicycles exceeded 10,000 US dollars
In terms of delivery dimensions, Tesla's global delivery volume continues to grow. In 2022Q1, Tesla delivered 310048 units worldwide, +67.71%/+0.45% year-on-year, respectively; of which Model 3/Y delivered 295234 units, +61.51%/-0.53% year-on-year, and Model S/X delivered 14724 units, +625.32%/+25.14% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, 12,167 rental vehicles, accounting for 3.93%. Among them, the Sales of 108893 vehicles (traffic insurance caliber) in the Chinese market were +57.37%/-6.31% year-on-year, accounting for 35.12% of the total delivery ratio, and -2.31/-2.53pct year-on-year.
Performance dimension, with the increase of delivery, the growth rate of revenue and profit under the action of scale effect is faster. 1) In terms of revenue, Tesla achieved a total operating income of 18.756 billion US dollars, +80.54%/+5.85% year-on-year; of which the total sales of automobiles were 16.881 billion US dollars, +87.30% / + 5.60% year-on-year, the automobile sales business revenue was 16.193 billion US dollars, +86.02% / +5.57% year-on-year, and the car rental business revenue was 668 million US dollars, +124.92% / + + year-on-year 6.37％。 Energy revenue for 2022Q1 was US$616 million, +24.70%/-10.47% year-on-year, respectively, and services and other revenue was US$1.279 billion, +43.23%/+20.21% year-on-year. 2) In terms of profit, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 3.318 billion US dollars in 2022Q1, +657.53%/+42.96% year-on-year, and a net profit margin attributable to the mother of 17.69%, and +13.47/+4.59pct year-on-year.
The automotive business and the company's overall gross profit margin continued to improve, and profitability continued to improve. In terms of gross profit margin, the overall gross profit margin of 2022Q1 company was 29.11%, +7.79/+1.76pct year-on-year, respectively; of which the gross profit margin of automobile sales/leasing was 32.60%/38.92%, which was +6.78/-7.21pct year-on-year, +2.29/+1.98pct, respectively, and the gross profit margin of energy business was -11.69%, and the year-on-year ratio was +8.76/-4.28pct, respectively. Services & Other Business Gross Margin - 0.55%, +7.18/-2.05pct, respectively. The continuous improvement of gross profit margin in 2022Q1 is mainly due to: 1) the proportion of low-cost shipments in Shanghai factories has increased; 2) the cost reduction effect of Tesla's 4680 battery large-scale application is remarkable; 3) the price increase in the first quarter effectively transmits cost pressure to the downstream.
The expense rate is declining, and the cost indicator is well controlled. The company invested US$865 million in R&D expenses in 2022Q1, +29.88%/+16.89% year-over-year, and sales, administrative and general administrative expenses of US$992 million, or -6.06%/-33.60% year-on-year. R&D expense ratio was 4.61%, -1.80/+0.44pct year-on-year, and sales, administrative and general expense ratios were 5.29%, compared with -4.88%/-3.14% year-on-year, respectively.
Under the effect of scale effect, the gross profit of Tesla bicycles continued to grow; the expenses continued to decrease, and the net profit of bicycles exceeded 10,000 US dollars. The average sales revenue of Tesla bicycles in 2022Q1 was $54,400, +6.96%/+3.55% year-on-year, respectively; the gross profit of bicycles was $17,600, +46.98%/+12.14% year-on-year, maintaining continuous growth since 2020Q4 and setting a new high. 2022Q1 bicycle research and development expenses invested 0.28 million US dollars, bicycle sales, administrative and general expenses invested 0.32 million US dollars, respectively- -22.55% / -43.99% year-on-year, with the increase in sales of bicycle expenses amortization continues to decline, bicycle net profit continued to increase, from 2020Q1 of 0.02 million US dollars to 2022Q1 increased to 10,700 US dollars, the first time exceeded 10,000 US dollars, 2022Q1 bicycle net profit year-on-year +352% / +42%, respectively.
Abundant cash flow and strong hematopoietic capacity. Net cash flow from Tesla's operating activities in 2022Q1 was $3,995 million, +143.45%/-12.87% year-on-year, respectively, and the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period was $18.040 billion, +1.79%/-0.57% year-on-year, respectively. At present, cash flow is still abundant, net operating cash flow is effectively maintained, and hematopoietic capacity is strong.
2
Capacity continues to expand, global deliveries continue to increase, and flywheels accelerate
The world's five major production bases, the current disclosure of a total planned production capacity of more than 1.05 million vehicles, the future Berlin / Texas is expected to contribute more increments. Tesla's current global fully operational factories include Shanghai and California, with a combined planned capacity of more than 1.05 million vehicles. In March 2022, Tesla's Berlin plant officially started production, mainly for the production of Model Y, the company is expected to reach an annual output of 500,000 units; in April 2022, Tesla's world's largest factory - Texas Gigafactory in the United States began production, only Model Y planned to reach an annual production capacity of 500,000 units, and is expected to officially produce Cyberterck, electric truck Semi, electric supercar Roadster 2 in 2023, and produce Model 3 for the eastern region of North America.
Global deliveries are expected to exceed 1.5 million units in 2022, maintaining sustained high-speed growth. According to the guidance of Tesla's 2022Q1 performance exchange meeting, Tesla delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of 50% to 60% in 2022, and is expected to exceed 1.5 million vehicles.
3
In 2022, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles is expected to reach 25%, and it will continue to develop at a high speed
In 2022, the wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 5.55 million units, corresponding to a penetration rate of 24.8%. Tesla leads the global electric vehicle industry with "sustained high sales and profitability growth", and the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market is expected to continue to accelerate. We expect that in 2022, the overall domestic passenger car production volume will be 22.28/22.38 million units, respectively, +6.5%/+6.3% year-on-year, of which the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles will be 5.55 million units, +68.4% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of wholesale caliber will be 24.8%; the retail sales of compulsory insurance will be 20.03 million units, year-on-year -0.9%, of which the retail sales of new energy vehicles will be 5.05 million units, year-on-year +74.6%, and the penetration rate of retail caliber will exceed 25%, reaching 25.21%.
4
Investment advice
The short-term epidemic has brought fluctuations, and the logic of long-term optimism about the automotive sector is still valid. 8 major gold stocks in 2022: vehicle [Ideal Automobile + BYD + Xiaopeng Automobile + Great Wall Motor], parts [Tuopu Group (the core target of Tesla industry chain) + Desay SV + Huayang Group + Bethel]. Secondly, the vehicle [GAC Group + Geely Automobile + Changan Automobile + Weilai Automobile + SAIC + Xiaokang Shares + Jianghuai Automobile], parts [Echodi + Xusheng shares (the core target of Tesla's industrial chain) + Torch Technology + Fuyao Glass + China Auto Research + Huayu Automobile], pay attention to [Xingyu shares + Jifeng shares + Joyson Electronics].
5
Risk Warning
The impact of chip shortages exceeded expectations. The chip shortage in the overall passenger car market has an impact on the production side and may adversely affect the sales volume of downstream terminals in the market.
The passenger car price war exceeded expectations. Competition in the passenger car market has intensified, and the price war exceeding expectations may adversely affect corporate profits.