This season's Serie A trophy battle has entered a white-hot period, and milan and Napoli have a great chance to prove themselves by winning the championship, which is a different kind of excitement that has not been experienced in Apennine football, which has always been "ruled early". At present, although the Rossoneri is 2 points ahead, the Nerazzurri is one less round, and the next round of the game will inevitably lead to the staggering of points and teeth; of course, don't forget that the brothers still have the opportunity to meet directly (The Italian Cup), and the attitude towards the Italian Cup will also directly affect the situation in Serie A. Napoli's "yellow finches are behind" can not be underestimated, and their enthusiastic desire for the championship is also very clear. After all, the last time I stood on this podium, it was still too far away.
Points situation: The point difference is extremely small, and the mistake is out
At present, 32 rounds of Serie A have been dropped, and Milan have played 20 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats to temporarily rank first in the table, and their score is 68 points. Inter Milan, in second place, have played just 31 games, with a record of 19 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses, two points less, but a chance for a make-up round (On 27 April, Inter played Bologna). At present, the Nerazzurri opponent is temporarily in Serie A 12th is considered to be desireless, if the Nerazzurri can win this opponent as expected, then it will surpass Milan to reach the top again. This small difference is full of subtle beauty, and it is indeed impossible to relax in the slightest.
Napoli, who are in third place, also have a good chance, they played with Milan in 32 rounds and won 66 points, only 2 points less than the Rossoneri. If the Milan duo in front of them has a winless situation in the next 6 games, and Napoli takes the opportunity to score 3 points, then it can also complete the counter-overtaking. The gap between the top three is minimal, and a missed hand may break the good game, and there is no room for sloppiness. Of course, Juventus, who is theoretically ranked 4th, also has a chance to compete for the trophy, but it is really too difficult to surpass 3 opponents in the 6-round range and make up for the gap of 6 points.
Schedule analysis: Milan is more difficult than Inter, and the key battles must be won
1- Milan fixture analysis
Since the league is a cross-over double loop, the opponents encountered after the top three are naturally different, which will have a large direct impact on the season ranking and the direction of the championship. Let's start with AC Milan, whose next six opponents are: home vs Genoa, away vs Lazio, home vs Fiorentina, away vs Verona, home vs Atlanta, away vs Sassuolo.
Of the 6 opponents, Genoa is a very stressed opponent in relegation, and they have played 32 games, still in the bottom quagmire, and it is very difficult to extricate themselves (they need to get 5-7 more points than their opponents). And their opponents in the last three rounds actually had such a difficult battle as VS Napoli and VS Juventus, so they must get more points in front of them, and they must be desperate against Milan. On the plus side, Milan have beaten Genoa (3-0, 3-1) in league and cup matches this season and it seems that they are more handy to play.
After playing Genoa, Milan will be in the league to talk to three strong and strong teams with good strength. The first rival, Lazio, is competing for Europa League qualification, while the second rival, Fiorentina, is Lazio's main rival, as is the third, Atalanta. The current point difference between the three teams is 4 points, and with a goal, they will naturally not directly "give up" the remaining games, and it is not too simple to compete with them, milan must play spirits.
The first leg of the match was also a wake-up call for Milan, 2-0 Lazio is relatively easy, but the team won 3-2 against Atalanta to get three points, and lost 3-4 against Fiorentina. In the sprint period when there can be no mistakes, such a performance is unacceptable. Although Sassuolo had no desires or desires, they had always been bad to mess with. The 1-3 match in the first leg also made Milan fans very dissatisfied, Skamaka and Ras Padori have all contributed, and Milan killer Berardi of course "lived up to expectations" and scored a wonderful goal.
In the middle of the 1st and 3rd league games, Milan have a Copa League derby with Inter. This will more or less involve the energy of the team, and it will not be better if the opponent has the same problem.
2 - Inter schedule analysis
Let's look at Inter, which is in second place. Their opponents in the last six rounds (+1 make-up) are away vs Spezia, home vs Roma, away vs Bologna (make-up), away vs Udinese, home vs Empoli, away vs Cagliari, home vs Sampdoria.
Spezia, Bologna, Udinese and Empoli as a whole are undesirable, relegation is unlikely in the next game (10+ points more than in the relegation zone), it is really difficult to compete for European qualification (15+ points away from the Europa League score), and they may be worse than Milan's opponents in terms of "aggressiveness". This is a positive factor for the Nerazzurri.
Roma are expected to compete for a Europa League qualification, Cagliari does have relegation pressure, but fortunately, these two opponents are one after the other, and it may already be a foregone conclusion (European and relegation qualifications). Therefore, from the perspective of the overall schedule, the Nerazzurri are slightly better than their opponents in the same city.
The matchup in the first leg also confirmed this. Inter conceded only 1 goal 2-0 Spezia, 3-0 Roma, 6-1 Bologna, 2-0 Udinese, 2-0 Empoli, 4-0 Cagliari, but lost his hand against Samp, only to draw 2-2 and the opponent was not small. However, the Nerazzurri should not be overly careless, after all, today's state is not much different from the first half of the season, and cannot just live in the past.
3 - Napoli fixtures
Napoli's opponents in the last six rounds are home vs Roma, away vs Empoli, home vs Sassuolo, away vs Turin, home vs Genoa, away vs Spezia. Similar to Inter, they are also a fight for the Europa League (Roma), a fight for relegation (Genoa), the rest of the opponents have no desires, and the difficulty of the schedule is medium.
However, unlike Inter, although the opponent does not look strong, Napoli did not take any advantage of them in the first leg. The scores of 0-0 draws with Roma, 0-1 loss to Empoli, 2-2 draws with Sassuolo, 1-0 wins over Turin, 2-1 wins over Genoa, and 0-1 losses to Spezia were close, and the 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats were not glorious enough.
Key battles: set the tone with the Roman campaign, off-the-plate derby mentality
1-VS Roma
The title race is a game between Milan and Napoli, but for Roma, it is also full of "participation". In the upcoming 33rd round of Serie A, they will have a direct dialogue with Napoli, and in the next 34th round, Mourinho will lead the team and his old club Inter, which will inevitably have a very direct impact on the direction of the season championship. At the same time, Roma should also be the theoretically strongest opponent in the remaining napoli and Inter schedules. Passing through this opponent will also accumulate a lot of confidence.
Roma played both games away from home, and in the first leg they drew with Napoli without giving their opponents any chance. However, in the match against Inter, it was a 0-3 fiasco and gave the Nerazzurri gift. At the same time, the Coppa Italia Roma also played inter milan, and the team also lost 0-2. However, the overall performance of Roma has been good recently, only losing 1 time in the last 10 games (1-2 Bode shines), And Mourinho's unyielding temperament will also make him resist to the end. Milan is naturally relatively comfortable, if Rome can help them "snipe" the two strong, then the Red and Black Army will naturally be a big smile.
2 - Remake of the Milan derby
In addition to the match vs Roma, the Italian Cup replica Milan derby is also an extremely critical game, although this is not a direct contest between the two teams in Serie A, but the meeting with the city will certainly not give the opponent a chance, and will inevitably stage an extraordinarily popular drama. The attitude to the cup is something that both managers are considering, and the anecdotes are also quarrelsome, some people mention that it is okay to give up, Serie A is the highlight, and it may take too much physical strength to distribute the cup; some people mention that losing the cup will inevitably restrict the mood of the league, and then there will be a chain reaction. It all seems to make sense.
The Milan derby is interspersed in two league games, and the intensity, difficulty, and physical exertion needless to say, both sides will encounter the dilemma of three games a week. And the advancing side will have to play in the next game, which is very bad for physical reserves. Napoli, by contrast, may reap the benefits of the fishermen, and all they need to do is not make mistakes until the opportunity comes.
3- The temptation and pressure of the make-up match
Despite inter's repeated complaints, the results were not satisfactory, and they will play a supplementary match against Bologna on April 27. The make-up match is both a temptation and a pressure for Inter. The temptation is that as long as they win, they can successfully surpass Milan, grab the precious vantage point of the championship, and go straight ahead to defend the title; but the pressure is also huge, although in the first round they played the opponent collapsed, but now it is no longer the past, the price of careless loss, basically equal to the full loss. The score and psychological advantage will be transferred to Milan in an instant.
In addition, after the make-up schedule, Inter will play 4 games in the next 11 days, which is less than 3 days and 1 game, which is more intense than when the team participated in the Champions League. Can the Black And Blue Army, whose average age is not low, resist such fatigue?
Key issues: Milan's two-man attack is weak, Napoli lack confidence
For milan, the key issue is similar, that is, how to solve the very weak forward line. In Milan, as Ibrahimovic grew older and played with other players, there were indeed too few people available to the team. Although Olivier Giroud is still reliable and can save the team from fire and water, it is not realistic to point to him who is also not young. The boring and sullen balance of the last two rounds of matches is enough to explain the problem, the strange encounter in the last round vs Turin is also laughable, and the opposite Pellegri, who also played in San Siro in the first half of the season, is now a "deceased person". The team is too short of people.
Combined with the recent news given by Milan and the team reporter, Ibrahimovic is likely to suffer another injury attack, which will make him miss for about 10 days. The good news is that Rebich and Castillojo are about to make a comeback and can be called by Pioli. Under the premise that Díaz has not been able to play the standard for a long time and lacks the support of Ibrahimovic's strong point, there are really not many people who can stand up for Milan, and how Pioli deploys the team and activates the team's offensive vitality will be a very critical issue. Is it to arrange the odds or to give a change of formation? It's an option.
The same is true of Inter, who played very strong in the first half of the season and have recently suffered a dud. The golden combination of Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez has not been played for a long time. This also led to the poor performance of the Nerazzurri in the past month, losing the advantages accumulated before. Little Inzaghi was very troubled, and the renewal that had been negotiated was now shelved. He needs to win the Serie A title in order to continue his journey. Adjusting the vitality of the front line is a necessary task.
Inter's situation is different, Dzeko has no injury problems, but the fatigue level is full, and it is basically difficult to play the value after 60 minutes. And he did not have a qualified substitute, so in the platoon deployment, Xiaoyin still chose to "insist". In the time when Zheke was not online, Inter basically could not play effective game content, so the recent matches were basically two plays: "the dream of the first half back to the beginning of the season" and "the second half quickly returned to the original form". In terms of solution, it also depends on XiaoYin's personal choice, is it to seek change or to continue to stick to it safely?
For Napoli, perhaps what is missing is more of a psychological level of construction, after all, the last time they won Serie A, it was too long ago, and this group of players themselves may not believe that the team can reach the top successfully. This is also the main reason why they played highlights in the first half of the season and fell behind in the second half. As the manager, Spalletti's own attribute is to be "reversed", which is also very unfavorable to the team's championship period. But this time it was a good opportunity for himself and the team to adjust, and if they could beat the Milan duo to win the trophy, then the story that followed would be completely different.
epilogue
Overall, the title of Serie A this season is most likely to be born between Milan and Napoli. Milan's schedule is relatively difficult, they have to play against opponents at the level of Purple Lily, True Blue and Black, Lazio, Sassuolo is not easy to deal with; Inter's weak forward needs to be solved quickly, and they must also go all out to win the supplementary round, only in this way can they really grasp the initiative; Napoli's mentality is very critical, And Spalletti needs to encourage the team to make them realize that they are at the championship level and have enough strength to compete for the trophy. No matter how such a fierce ending is very happy for the fans, it is also very beneficial to the progress and development of the entire event.
(Li Qian)