CBO reporter Li Jianzi
The repeated epidemics have made all the ports in the entire supply chain of the beauty industry not very good. In particular, the new beauty retail species that were once popular with capital may be one of the groups that have a very difficult time at present, but most of the pain under the epidemic is "planned for a long time".
On the afternoon of last Friday (April 8), a reporter from Cosmetics Finance Online came to the black hole HAYDON Wuhan Chuhe Han Street store. Unlike the long queue in front of the door, at the same time, compared with the next door, the order on the tea line next door needs to queue for nearly an hour, and the customers in the black hole store seem to be a little deserted at this time. On Saturday afternoon, the reporter came to the Black Hole Jianghan Road Pedestrian Street store, and the flow of people was still not optimistic, even similar to the number of people in the Chuhe Han Street store on Friday. People can't help but wonder, isn't the black hole on fire?
As a black hole for the followers of the beauty warehousing model, in December 2020, the name of "global high-end beauty retail brand" was born after the epidemic, and the first store was located in the "heroic city" of Wuhan Chuhe Han Street. 16 months on, is the black hole pattern okay?
01
Profit for sales
5000 yuan products sell for 2500 yuan
At the end of 2019, with the landing of Jiemei from the traditional e-commerce line, the beauty warehousing mode 1.0 era was opened with the industrial scene space. Strong space scene + beauty big name sample, instantly become a traffic password, black hole also came into being in such a big environment. Although they are all beauty collection stores that use "space + small samples" as the traffic entrance, regardless of the aesthetic differences of the scene, the brands, product portfolios and Plums in the black hole store are still not small.
Such a difference may directly affect the profit space of the black hole.
In the current domestic beauty business environment, the authorization of big brands is more difficult to obtain. Whether it is a plum or a black hole of goods, mainly from counters and traders. However, due to its past agency experience, Jiemei pays more attention to European and American niche brands in the selection, such as: FARMACY, AYDRY & Co., YOHJI YAMAMOTO, etc. Such a combination of products makes the profit margin of the plum higher than that of the black hole. In addition, Yuemei is now constantly investing in domestic niche beauty brands to enrich its product line and further expand its profit margins.
Although Black Hole also hoped to introduce more niche brands at the beginning of its establishment, the actual situation is that 99% of the current product line is still dominated by imported big brands. "Cosmetics Finance Online" reporter counted all brands in the black hole Chuhe Han Street store (no statistical instrument category), only the conjecture of the universe in the whole store and the two local fragrance brands of Little B under Fauvism. The entry rate of niche beauty brands is not high, which directly further compresses the profit margin of the black hole.
On the day of the reporter's visit to the store, coinciding with the black hole discount promotion, the official price of 5530 yuan of Lai Penny Laprairie pearl sac serum can be obtained in the black hole less than 50% off. The reporter also compared other beauty collection stores on the Pedestrian Street of Chuhe Han Street and found that the black hole price of some products was significantly lower. Taking Avène 300ml spray as an example, in black hole, the price of this single product is 149 yuan for two pieces (the price is equivalent to half the price of the official website), and the spray products in several other collection stores such as KKV are only 20% off.
It can be seen that the black hole is sacrificing product profit margins in exchange for sales.
Some insiders told reporters that the gross profit margin of The Plum is only about 10%, and the gross profit margin of the black hole is even lower, and it may even be sold at a loss. "The mix of goods is the core of the retail store, and obviously the black hole's profit model is not in the store."
02
More than 40% of temporarily closed stores
The goal of expanding stores in 2021 has not yet been completed
Due to the non-reproducibility of the business model, the main cash flow of new species stores such as black holes and colorists still relies on venture capital to continue. At the beginning of its establishment in December 2020, the black hole received investment from Hillhouse and Tencent angel rounds; on September 24, 2021, HAYDON Black Hole completed another $100 million A+ round of financing.
Being able to raise funds so quickly is related to the popularity of the black hole in the market on the one hand, and on the other hand, its store positioning and store opening planning have also played a decisive role.
At the beginning of its establishment, in the strategic planning of stores, the black hole laid out "one city and two stores" in core key cities, and other cities focused on the "one city, one store" model to expand stores.
At the beginning of 2021, the founder of Black Hole said in an interview with the media: "In the first half of this year (2021), 8 stores will be opened in 6 cities, accelerating the layout of the business map, touching the core business districts of core cities; it is planned to open about 25 stores by the end of the year, and exceed 100 by the middle of 2023, based on first-tier and new first-tier cities, covering more second- and third-tier cities and provincial capitals, so as to lay out the national market." ”
However, from the perspective of reality, due to the impact of the epidemic, the speed of opening stores in the black hole has been greatly reduced.
According to statistics, as of now, there are a total of 13 stores in the black hole country (Shenzhen Wenheyou store has been closed), and the landing cities include: Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu, Yinchuan, Harbin, Urumqi, Nanjing, Hohhot, etc. Among them, the three cities in Wuhan, Shanghai and Xi'an are black holes for one city and two stores.
The data of the black hole not only fails to achieve the set goal of 2021, but also has a long way to go from the "Hundred Stores Plan" in 2023.
△ Black Hole WeChat public account issued a notice of temporary store closure
To make matters worse, not only was there no rapid layout as originally planned, but due to the repeated epidemics this year, Black Hole also temporarily closed the Harbin store, the Hangzhou store, the Shanghai Bund store and the Xinmei store in late March. Since April, the scope of store closures has been expanding. Since April 5, Chengdu Chunxi Road store has announced its closure, and the number of temporarily closed stores has exceeded 40%.
03
The valuation of a single store is only half that of Mei
Who can go public in the United States?
After the second round of financing last year, the valuation of the black hole has reached $1 billion, with an average value of 100 million yuan per store. On the one hand, the market share has not been expanded as planned, on the other hand, due to the closure of stores due to the impact of the epidemic, the decline in store traffic has led to a tightening of cash flow from stores, will the next financing of the black hole be affected?
"When investors invest in a brand or company, the most important measure is often their market positioning and market share. That is to say, if the company has a good innovation model, but does not have a good profit margin for the time being, investors will continue to invest, and the ultimate goal is to go public. The person in charge of a securities company in Hangzhou analyzed to the "Cosmetics Finance Online" reporter.
Obviously, the primary purpose of a black hole is to go public.
△Jiemei Wuhan Wuhan Tiandi Store (under renovation)
The US stock market is considered by some industry insiders to be the first choice for black hole listing.
It is understood that Dow Jones and Nasdaq are the two main types of US stocks (analogous to China's A-shares and ChiNext). In the Dow Jones listed companies are relatively formal, profits, dividends, stability are the main thresholds for enterprises to go public, while Nasdaq is relatively loose, technology, innovation companies are mostly, growth and business growth is the main focus, profit is not.
"Just like the Chinese stocks Such as Luckin and Yixian E-commerce, which were listed on Minas Dakkai in previous years, the initial profitability of these brands or companies is not ideal, but it does not prevent investors from investing." The person in charge of the brokerage firm above said, "That is to say, if the black hole wants to go public in the United States, the current low gross profit is not a problem." ”
But the same type of innovative enterprise in the same industry, who is listed first, can seize a more favorable first-mover advantage, including high valuation, high financing and so on. If the ultimate purpose of Meimei and Black Hole is to go public in the United States, there may only be one "success" between the two.
Up to now, the number of stores in The United States totals 10. In January this year, Jiemei once again completed nearly C and D rounds of financing of $200 million, with a single store valuation of $200 million, which is twice the valuation of a single store in the black hole. In this way, It seems that The Plum has more advantages.
"When the company's market share does not reach the original plan, investors will gradually reduce the financing investment, and may also be sold in exchange for profits." The founder of a beauty brand told reporters, "If the black hole can adjust the mode in time, it may be able to catch up later." ”