AMOLED sits on the small and medium-sized "top seat" for the first time

Recently, market research institute Omdia released data that AMOLED in the 2021 small and medium-sized display panel market performance is very eye-catching, not only more than half of the revenue accounted for 36.87 billion US dollars, but also for the first time surpassed the TFT LCD, occupying the small and medium-sized size "top spot". In 2010, Samsung launched the first Galaxy S mobile phone equipped with AMOLED screen, which lasted 11 years, and AMOLED became the largest category in the small and medium-sized panel market.

The growing small and medium-sized market will be volatile

In the past 20 years, the small and medium-sized panel market has continued to expand and shown a sustained growth trend. Omida data shows that the total revenue of small and medium-sized panels in 2001 was about $4.94 billion, and this figure has grown to $62.98 billion in 2021, an increase of more than 12 times. Affected by the popularity of 5G mobile phones, mobile office and other factors, the revenue of the small and medium-sized panel market will grow by 14% in 2021.

The production data released by the leaders of major display companies can also support the strong performance of AMOLED in 2021. In 2021, BOE's flexible AMOLED product shipments will be nearly 60 million pieces; Tianma will ship about 25 million AMOLED products in 2021; Visionox disclosed data showing that the shipments of Kunshan's 5.5th generation AMOLED panel production line increased by about 56% over the same period last year, and the shipments of Gu'an's 6th-generation AMOLED panel production line increased by about 140% over the same period last year.

However, industry experts predict that the long-term growth trend of global small and medium-sized panel revenue will remain unchanged this year, and there will be a correction and fluctuation this year. "According to the long-term forecast, small and medium-sized revenue will decline in 2022 and maintain a slow growth trend between 2023 and 2025." Guo Zijiao, a small and medium-sized display analyst at Omdia, said in an interview with China Electronics News.

The reporter observed that in the past 20 years, the small and medium-sized panel market has maintained overall growth, and at the same time, there have been brief declines and fluctuations in 2006, 2009, 2014 and 2018. Dong Min, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Video Industry Association, told the China Electronics News reporter that the panel market has a certain cyclicality, and there are different degrees of rise and fall in prices at different stages. However, from the perspective of the small and medium-sized panel market, the next will still maintain a certain growth trend.

As a major application, the replacement of mobile phone screens has significantly driven the revenue growth of small and medium-sized display panels. For example, 1G and 2G mobile phones have driven the growth of the black-and-white passive matrix liquid crystal display panel (PMLCD) market, 3G mobile phones have led to the growth of color TFTLCD panels, and 4G and 5G smartphones have led to the expansion of the TFT LCD and AMOLED panel market with higher added value. Now that the 6G mobile phone era has not yet opened, Guo Zijiao believes that if there is no strong pull of emerging applications, it is difficult for small and medium-sized display revenue to increase by up to 14% like in 2021.

In Dong Min's view, the future small and medium-sized panel market has two major growth engines, one is the continuous upgrading of display technology, driven by upstream panel factories and terminal brand owners, folding screen, AMOLED, LTPS LCD and other high value-added panel products Will continue to expand. Second, the market for small and medium-sized panels in emerging areas such as XR, wearables, in-vehicles, and digital signage is growing rapidly.

The proportion of AMOLED may be further expanded

In 2021, AMOLED replaces the TFT LCD panel, for the first time to become the first category of small and medium-sized size, industry experts expect that in the next few years, AMOLED's leading advantage will gradually expand, and it will still sit firmly in the "top seat" of small and medium-sized size.

Geng Yi, director of the Optoelectronics Research Office of the Integrated Circuit Research Institute of CCID Think Tank, pointed out that AMOLED is in a period of rapid development, with the development of under-screen integration, LTPO, no polarization, printed display and other technologies, AMOLED is also expected to play an important role in VR/AR, notebook computers and other products.

In terms of performance and cost, AMOLED is more in line with the needs of small and medium-sized consumer electronics. Guo Zijiao believes that the characteristics of OLED's thin and light and low power consumption can play a more advantageous role in small size products, in addition, the panel cost of small and medium-sized products accounts for a relatively low proportion of the total cost of the whole machine, which can digest the high premium of AMOLED.

Industry experts judge that folding screen mobile phones will become an important growth opportunity for small and medium-sized AMOLED. Since the beginning of this year, mainstream manufacturers such as Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and xiaomi have almost launched folding screen mobile phone products, and folding screen mobile phones are expected to enter the popularization cycle.

In this regard, Dong Min said that although the pace of mobile phone market replacement has gradually slowed down, it is worth noting that folding mobile phones have been jointly recognized by the brand end, and the collective participation of the brand and the price of less than 10,000 yuan will bring certain vitality to the AMOLED market.

Guo Zijiao judged that "AMOLED revenue will continue to lead the LCD in the future," but she also pointed out that AMOLED replaced the LCD by sacrificing the average unit price of AMOLED, so it could not bring significant growth to revenue. For example, OPPO released a Find N folding screen mobile phone at the end of 2021, and the starting price of 7699 yuan broke the lowest price of the horizontal folding screen mobile phone.

With the news that Apple laptops will adopt OLED screens, manufacturers such as Samsung Display, LGD and BOE have laid out medium-size AMOLED panels. Industry experts believe that medium-size panels for IT such as notebooks may become an important force driving the growth of the AMOLED market. In this regard, Guo Zijiao said that the medium-size AMOLED will inevitably have a relatively large increase in the initial stage, but this part is not counted in the range of small and medium-sized panels.