Pakistan, where the current prime minister Imran Khan was deposed from "high inflation + political turmoil," is afraid of falling back into a rut

21st Century Business Herald reporter Hu Huiyin reported that the results of the pakistani parliament's vote on Prime Minister Imran Khan's motion of no confidence have touched the nerves of all parties.

On April 10, local time, Pakistan's National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) passed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan. Imran Khan became the first prime minister in Pakistan's history to be ousted from the National Assembly. In the vote held in Pakistan's National Assembly, the motion of no confidence, proposed by the opposition coalition, received 174 votes in favour, and more than half of the parliamentary seats were passed by 172 votes.

Opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif is seen as a popular candidate for the new prime minister, and Shabaz, 70, is the younger brother of three-time Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

On the eve of the opposition-sponsored vote of no confidence, Imran Khan gave a nationally televised speech accusing the opposition of seeking to establish an "import government." He said that even if he is voted to be deposed, he will continue to fight to the end against foreign forces interfering in Pakistan's internal affairs. He also called on the public to stand up against foreign interference.

Regarding Pakistan's early general election, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on April 6 that China has always pursued the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic partners.

From "anti-corruption vanguard" to the first prime minister to be ousted

The opposition's success in a vote of no confidence in the current prime minister, Imran Khan, is to be expected. This result also shows the difficult situation of Imran Khan.

Before becoming prime minister, Imran Khan was a professional cricketer. In 1992, he was regarded as Pakistan's "national hero" for leading the Pakistani national cricket team to win the World Cup. After retiring from the military, Imran Khan turned to politics, founding the Pakistan Justice Movement Party in 1996 and stepping to the top of politics in 2018 – becoming Pakistan's new prime minister.

At the beginning of his term of office, Imran Khan raised the banner of anti-corruption and promised to solve the problem of nepotism.

During his tenure as Prime Minister, "promoting people's livelihoods" was also the key word in Imran Khan's administration. In addition to the nationwide welfare society construction proposed in 2019, Imran Khan also proposed a relief package of Rs 12,000 crore during the pandemic. However, he has not been able to change Pakistan's high inflation rate and rising debt levels, and public discontent is growing. Because of this, he was accused by the opposition of failing to revive the economy battered by the pandemic and failing to deliver on its commitments to make the government more transparent and accountable.

Liu Zongyi, secretary general of the Center for China and South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, believes that in the years of Imran Khan's administration, his goals are difficult to say to have been achieved. He told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "Since coming to power in 2018, Imran Khan has taken people's livelihood as the center to promote economic development, in fact, many of the measures taken are ungrounded, and some of the measures are mainly for political purposes." But at the same time, he also told reporters that the main reason for the political crisis is actually the partisan struggle in Pakistan.

Since coming to power, Imran Khan has continued to suppress the opposition. In this regard, Wang Shida, deputy director of the South Asia Institute of the China Academy of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that this year, the Pakistani opposition has shown unprecedented unity, and "Imran Khan is facing unprecedented challenges." ”

In fact, years of coalition government have also laid the groundwork for instability. It is understood that the Pakistan Justice Movement party led by Imran Khan won a majority of seats in the 2018 general election, but the party did not receive an overwhelming majority of votes and must form a coalition government.

Earlier, following the Balochistan People's Party (BAP), another member of the ruling coalition, the Pakistan United National Movement Party (MQM-P), also said it would support the opposition's no-confidence motion. Regarding the successive "defections" of members of the ruling coalition, Wang Shida told reporters that it is likely that the opposition has given them a greater political commitment or political share.

Pakistan's National Assembly has 342 seats, and the Constitution stipulates that the final vote of no confidence requires the support of more than half, that is, at least 172 deputies. After persuading several small parties allied with the government to "defect", the opposition claimed at the time that they had enough votes to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The economy with record high inflation is facing a severe test

Pakistan's current economic situation is not optimistic. At present, Pakistan is facing an increasingly serious inflation situation.

On April 7, Pakistan's central bank decided to raise interest rates by 250 basis points to 12.25%. The reporter inquired about the data of Pakistan's central bank and found that this is the third interest rate hike of the central bank since Last November. For the rate hike, The Bank of Pakistan said in a statement that the outlook for inflation has deteriorated since the last monetary policy meeting and the risk to external stability is also increasing. The bank forecasts an average domestic inflation rate of 11 percent in Pakistan in fiscal 2022, slightly above the previous government's target of 8 percent.

For now, Pakistan's inflation rate is second in South Asia after Sri Lanka. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Pakistani food prices rose 17% year-on-year in March. According to the Gallup Pakistan poll, about 64 percent of respondents believe inflation is the biggest problem in the country.

High inflation is mainly manifested in soaring food and energy prices, which have led to a deterioration in the living standards of the Pakistani people. On the other hand, what is more worrying is that Pakistan's export volume has not increased year-on-year with imports. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, in the first seven months of the 2021-2022 fiscal year, the country's trade deficit reached $28.872 billion, an increase of 92.45% from $15.002 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Wang Shida told reporters that the problem of high domestic inflation in Pakistan is that its export earning capacity is poor, "Pakistan's industrial base is weak, and even basic industrial products rely on imports, resulting in a relatively large current account deficit." "At present, the Pakistani rupee continues to depreciate against the US dollar. As of April 8, the Pakistani rupee remained low at Rs 184.5 to 1 USD. As a result, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are likely to decline further.

In this context, Pakistan's economic structure faces challenges. According to the Research Institute for International Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, in fiscal 2020, the GDP of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries of Pakistan's national economy accounted for 19%, 19% and 62% respectively. In this regard, Liu Zongyi told reporters that Pakistan has prematurely deindustrialization, and its service industry proportion far exceeds the primary and secondary industries, highlighting the imbalance of its economic structure.

According to the National Bank of Pakistan, as of June 30, 2021, Pakistan's total external debt was US$122.199 billion, an increase of US$9.186 billion or 8% year-on-year, a record high. "The outbreak of the epidemic has greatly affected Pakistan's economy. Soaring inflation and rising international oil prices have seriously affected people's livelihood. He believes that this is also an important factor that has led to the unfavorable political situation of Imran Khan.

At the same time, Liu Zongyi also further analyzed that the current high inflation and high debt in Pakistan are also affected by the policies of some large economies, which cannot be solved by changing the prime minister, and the economic policies adopted by the government can only play a easing role to a certain extent, and cannot really solve Pakistan's economic problems.

Pakistan's sluggish economic growth has been criticized by many critics in February for lending $1.05 billion to the International Monetary Fund. The opposition accused Imran Khan's government of failing to steer Pakistan's economy on a growth trajectory and instead "betraying Pakistan's sovereignty" to the IMF.

"Domestic political struggles, local factional struggles in Pakistan have become the norm. Long-term political instability has made it difficult to achieve Pakistan's economic policies and caused national instability. Liu Zongyi told reporters that for now, Shabbaz Sharif is likely to become the next prime minister. He believes that because of the background of the Shabaz Sharif family, he may be more experienced in economic governance.

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