Relations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have not been very good because of the poor progress of counter-terrorism efforts. Finally, the two sides finally planned to hold a dialogue on the issue of terrorism, but it failed because the Pakistani side could not hold its breath.
A few days ago, it was reported that the Pakistani side and Atta had agreed that a delegation of the Pakistani Army would visit Afghanistan and meet with close aides to the leader of Atta to conduct exchanges and dialogues on border management between the two countries and the Atta issue.
Shortly before the start of the visit, the Pakistani side had already sent official letters to the Atta Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the specific information on the delegation's aircraft and flights, but shortly before the start of the visit, the Atta side announced that the meeting had been cancelled and blamed it on "weather conditions".
However, it is widely believed that the real reason for Atta's suspension of the Pakistani delegation's visit was that the Pakistani side launched attacks on targets in Afghanistan without authorization. A few days ago, the Pakistan Air Force fired missiles at Bata's stronghold in Paktika province in Afghanistan.
It should be stressed that this is not the first time that the Pakistani side has done so.
【Afghanistan-Pakistan border crossings】
Recently, due to the increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, it believes that one of the perpetrators is Bata, who is active in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and for this reason, the Pakistani side has frequently launched attacks on the border provinces of Afghanistan, resulting in casualties. Atta has also repeatedly strongly condemned and opposed Pakistan's actions as a serious violation of Afghan territory.
The cancellation of the visit is undoubtedly a great loss for the Pakistani side.
According to the plan, the venue for the meeting between Pakistan and Atta was chosen in Kandahar. Crucially, this is the heartland of the Pashtun community and the birthplace of the Taliban, where the current Taliban leader, Akhundzada, is said to live.
Therefore, this meeting is a dialogue with Akhundzada's cronies, but in fact, it can be regarded as a close contact with the leaders of Akhundzada, and the possibility that the Atta side will contact Akhundzada in the content of the conversation or in the course of the conversation between the two sides cannot be ruled out.
Pakistan's henchman Bata, who is a big sufferer, has a very close relationship with Atta in terms of origin and development. The two groups used to be a family, but when the war broke out in Afghanistan, the United States and NATO launched a large-scale military attack on the Taliban, the Atta regime quickly collapsed, and some of the remnants fled to the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which gradually became Atta's area of activity.
[Pakistan accuses Bata of orchestrating attacks on Chinese citizens]
By 2005, Mahsud, a Pakistani Taliban militant, had his own idea and privately joined the Pakistani government in exchange for ruling in Pakistan's South Waziristan district on the condition that he dissociate himself from al-Qaeda and Atta. In 2007, Mahsud declared his complete independence from Atta and established Bata.
In the long-term development process, Bata gradually divided into different factions, and the organizational structure became scattered and flat, but because of the intervention of external extremist organizations, Bata acted in an even more extreme style, and had contacts with many terrorist forces in South Asia, posing a great threat to regional security, and was recognized by the United Nations as an international terrorist organization.
There was also a brief collaboration between Bata and Atta, but eventually parted ways due to the different interests and goals pursued by both parties. But at the end of the day, the two organizations share the same historical origins, the Pashtuns.
So, after Atta took power for the second time in Afghanistan, despite his repeated statements of opposition to Atta's attacks, Atta was encouraged by Atta's experience to increase the frequency of attacks on Pakistan and seek sympathists within Atta, trying to add legitimacy to himself by showing his intimacy with Atta and using his Pashtun status. From this point of view, Atta's attitude towards Bata will have a great impact on the latter's future development.
[Atta spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid]
But why did Atta not take a tough line against Bata despite repeated requests from the Pakistani side?
This is because Atta is also faced with a dilemma.
Atta's forcible pressure on Bata is likely to lead to further divisions in Bata that is already full of factions within him, spurring some small groups to become more extreme, or creating more extreme small groups, which in turn will lead to more frequent attacks.
And it is not realistic for Atta to remain completely neutral and not get involved in the affairs between Pakistan and Pakistan. On the one hand, there are indeed many sympathetic members within Atta, and even if Atta asks members to keep their distance from Batta, there is no guarantee that no member will give Bata asylum in private. Moreover, there are large Pashtun populations in southeastern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, which makes it impossible for Atta and Bata to be separated.
Therefore, solving the Pakistan-Taji problem is not only a difficult problem for Pakistan, but also a difficult problem for Atta.
[Pakistani officials visit Afghanistan in 2021]
To resolve the Pakistani issue, Pakistan and Atta need to maintain continuous communication and dialogue, and explore solutions little by little, which is likely to require the help of the international community.
We can't guarantee when this issue will be resolved, but as long as Pakistan and Atta are willing to communicate and maintain communication, there will definitely be results. On the contrary, any interruption of negotiations is a missed opportunity for the settlement of the Bata issue.
The temporary cancellation of the talks has also reminded both Pakistan and Atta that in dealing with regional terrorist activities, especially in the face of transnational issues, they must continue to exercise restraint and rationality, and intensify communication and exchanges with relevant countries.