Hungary's election: Why was the "maverick" Orbán re-elected? Why are EU people nervous and expectant?

On April 3, hungary, a landlocked country in central Europe, held a general election, and the whole of Europe was paying attention. On the one hand, as a member of the European Union and NATO, Hungary has always been "very close" with Russia. On the other hand, despite its border with Ukraine, during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its leaders advocated "staying out of the matter" and refused NATO to supply arms to Ukraine through its territory.

That evening, preliminary results released by Hungary's National Elections Office showed that the ruling coalition (AYP and CDU) won a landslide victory in the elections, with incumbent Prime Minister Orbán winning re-election.

Public opinion believes that this is the expression of the position of most Hungarian voters on national stability, economic recovery and freedom from conflict in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. What is intriguing is that some Western media are "like needles and felts", while exaggerating Orbán's "right-wing conservatism" and "populist" positions, while worrying that Europe will encounter more resistance in dealing with Russia in the future, while looking forward to whether he will turn to the West in the new term.

Why win

This is Hungary's quadrennial parliamentary election, with all parties vying for 199 seats in the Parliament. For the first time in history, it was predicted that the competition would be fiercer than in previous years: hungary's six main opposition parties shelved their ideological differences and formed a united front against the Adjudda (the Hungarian Solidarity Union).

However, it has been shown that the electorate of the ruling coalition remains solid. The Hungarian National Election Commission announced the results of the vote count on the evening of the 3rd, saying that in 91.06% of the votes released, the ruling coalition won 53.49% of the votes, and will get 135 seats in the Parliament, more than two-thirds of the majority. The opposition coalition, which received 34.63 percent of the vote, will receive 56 seats in Congress. The far-right movement of our fatherland, which received 6.28 percent of the vote, will take seven seats.

"We have won such a huge victory that we can even see it from the moon..." Orbán said in a speech that night outside election headquarters on the Danube River. Cheering crowds shouted his name in response. Shortly thereafter, opposition leader Markey-Zoe admitted defeat.

The data shows that the turnout rate of this general election is as high as 68.69%, which is similar to the 2018 general election. Public opinion believes that high voter turnout is beneficial to Orbán, which can block the doubts and criticisms of some Western media to a certain extent.

With the ruling coalition winning, Orbán, 58, will begin a fifth (and fourth consecutive) term as prime minister. He was Prime Minister of Hungary from 1998 to 2002, returned to power in 2010, and was re-elected twice in 2014 and 2018, making him Hungary's longest-serving leader since 1989.

Why did Orbán win the support of the Hungarian people once again? The comprehensive public opinion view may be related to several factors.

First, the campaign strategy is pragmatic and flexible, and it is relatively appropriate.

In the 12 years in power, the leader of the right-wing party Orban has a clear policy and a relatively strong style. During the campaign, his Youth Democratic League emphasized security issues in an attempt to maintain a balance between the West and Russia. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, he supported most of the EU sanctions against Russia and welcomed Ukrainian refugees, but refused to supply arms to Ukraine and refused to provide military aid to Ukraine through Hungary. He repeatedly stressed, "This is not a war in Hungary, we must stay out of it." ”

Some commentators said that as the most pro-Russian leader of the EU's 27 countries, Orbán has completed a difficult "tightrope walk", and its neutral position has resonated with most voters. Older, rural, poorer voter groups have supported their conservative social agenda.

Second, the ruling party has rich experience and more abundant electoral resources.

Opposition parties and Western observers have criticized the structural hurdles to defeating Orbán, as the public media tends to lean more toward the government and the division of constituencies. But it is also undeniable that the ruling party is experienced, has more campaign resources, or can get higher media exposure.

Third, the campaign claims made by the opposition coalition have declined in appeal.

Its leader, Machi-Zai, takes a centre-left stance, promising to end corruption in the current government and raise living standards by increasing health care and funding schools. He also slammed Orbán's close ties with Russia, advocating stronger ties with the EU and more direct aid to Ukraine.

Some commentators said that early in the campaign, the opposition camp's new political culture based on pluralistic governance sparked some discussion. But after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the campaign tone changed dramatically. For a large proportion of Hungarians, they prefer economic stability and stability, and their fear of war may be stronger than their dissatisfaction with Putin. As a result, the opposition's policy propositions have lost their luster to a certain extent.

What the impact

There is no doubt that this was a crushing defeat for the opposition coalition, whose leader, Malki-Zoe, did not even keep his home constituency. It was a resounding victory for the ruling coalition, and retaining a two-thirds majority in Parliament meant continuing to be empowered to shape Hungary's political, economic and social policies.

As the dust of the election has faded, public opinion has begun to pay attention to the policy direction of the new government and the potential impact on Eu-Hungary relations and the regional situation.

Internally, some commentators say that whoever comes to power will face many challenges, such as slowing economic growth, soaring inflation and the hundreds of thousands of refugees entering from Ukraine. How to solve these difficult problems will test the wisdom of the new government.

Externally, there has been speculation that Orbán may shift to a more pro-Western stance, and Eu-Hungarian relations may improve. Hungary has asked the European Commission to lift restrictions on its access to 7.2 billion euros in post-pandemic recovery funding, people familiar with the matter said. At a time when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not over, the EU may be reluctant to tangle with Hungary over legal disputes.

Some expect that the victory, one of Europe's longest-serving leaders, could enhance Orbán's ambitions to exert influence in Europe. He is working to consolidate the support of the Hungarian-speaking community in the surrounding countries and to strengthen relations with the Western Balkans. He may also want to build a conservative nationalist coalition in Europe.

More EU people are worried that with the re-election of Orbán, the core values of the EU and the tough attitude towards Russia will encounter more impact and resistance.

Combining public opinion and analysts, Orbán may have some fine-tuning to the West, but Hungary's relationship with the EU will hardly be too turned, and Orban's relatively isolated situation in the EU and NATO will be difficult to change in the short term.

First, since Hungary joined the European Union in 2004, the two sides have been at odds over many issues such as homosexuality, the rule of law, and immigration. During the European migrant crisis in 2015, Hungary fenced high on its southern border. Early in the campaign, Orbán held protectionist claims such as anti-immigration. In recent years, the EU has been critical of the Orbán government for inciting nationalist rhetoric and "tailoring" the law to its own size. Orban also spoke bluntly on the 3rd, calling the "Brussels bureaucracy" an "opponent".

Second, the contradictions between Russia and the West are difficult to understand, and the European-Hungarian position around Russia is incompatible. Orbán's friendly relations with Putin are well known, and russia and Hungary have strong commercial and energy ties. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Although Orbán supported most of the Western sanctions, he refused to cut off energy links with Russia. He is also the only leader of the European Union to publicly criticize Ukrainian President Zelenskiy. Some commentators said that the direction of orbán's normal relations with Russia will not change.

Overall, the Hungarian election once again reflected the rift between "old and new" and "east and west" in Europe. For a long time, it has been difficult for the "new Europe" to "sit on an equal footing" with the "old European" countries, and the "old Europe" is extremely dissatisfied with the "self-talk" of some Central and Eastern European "new Europe" countries. But even the European media admit that Orbán may be excluded but not excluded, because in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, both the EU and NATO need to pull him together to show Russia "Western unity". (Edit email: [email protected])

Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Visual China Image Editor: Su Wei

题图说明：4月3日，匈牙利布达佩斯，民众正在等待选举结果。      

Source: Author: An Zheng