In the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia's strategy became increasingly clear, and the ultimate goal was to replace Ukrainians with Russians.
Russia besieged on three sides, only the Ukrainians left in the west, and the railway and road from Ukraine to Poland were open. The overall tactics of the Russian army is to drive away the population, once the speed of refugee departure slows down, the Russian army will launch a wave of offensive, and even just create tension, which can make the Ukrainian ethnic group in Ukraine continue to decline rapidly.
Before the war, Ukraine had a book population of about 43.4 million, of which ethnic Ukrainians accounted for about 74.3% and ethnic Russians about 19.7%. Ukraine actually controls the population of about 37 million, excluding the three republics of Crimea, Luhansk and Doneesk, and the proportion of Ukrainian ethnic groups is higher.
According to UNHCR, about 4.22 million (4215047) of refugees from Ukraine left the country in the 39 days of the war, including 2.45 million (2451342) to Poland, 640,000 (643058) to Romania, 390,000 (394,740) to Moldova (394,740), Hungary (390302), Russia 350,000 (350632), Slovenia 300,000 (301405), and Belarus to 15,000 (15,281).
In the 39 days of the war, Ukraine lost 4.22 million people, an average of 108,000 people per day. At present, Ukraine has a book population of about 39.18 million, and the actual controlled population is about 32.78 million.
So continue, by 2024, the Ukrainian presidential election, what if the Ukrainian ethnic group is smaller than the Russian population? Is not an ethnic Russian would be elected president of Ukraine. If this happens, even if the war is over, the proportion of the Ukrainian population will be further reduced, and Ukraine will become a predominantly Ethnic Russian country.
At present, Russia has established political power outside the luhansk and Doneesk oblasts, such as Kherson, which shows that Russia wants to eat Ukraine little by little and make long-term plans.
Ukrainians may learn from how Kazakhs have gradually increased their ethnicity.
In 1989, in the demographic structure of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhs accounted for about 39.7%, the Russians accounted for about 37.8%, it can be said that the situation is much worse than Ukraine, the Kazakhs are almost in danger, and the country is facing a north-south split. In 2021, ethnic Kazakhs account for about 68% and ethnic Russians account for about 20%, basically laying the foundation for their own demographic advantage.
At the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kazakh capital, Almaty, was dominated by Kazakhs, but the north was predominantly Russian. In 1997, in order to completely reverse the demographic disadvantage in the north, Kazakhstan moved its capital from Almaty to Astana (Nur-Sultan) in the north, with a straight-line distance of about 960 kilometers.
The Kazakhs used a guiding approach to the Ethnic Russians in their own country to help them return to their homeland. If there are ethnic Russians who want to return to China to develop, Kazakhs will create all the conditions to assist. Over the past 30 years, Kazakhstan has gradually squeezed out the Russian community in a peaceful way, basically solving the national security problem, and now Kazakhstan and Russia have very good relations.
Photo - Kiev, Ukraine
In 1989, the ethnic Ukrainian population was about 37.42 million, accounting for about 72.7%; the ethnic Russian population was about 11.36 million, accounting for about 22.1%. In 2021. The ethnic Ukrainian population is about 32.23 million, accounting for about 74.3%, and the Ethnic Russian population is about 8.53 million, accounting for about 19.7%.
Photo - Aerial photo of Kiev
In fact, the proportion of Ukraine's own population is also gradually increasing. However, the Ukrainians have been too hasty, adding up violence against ethnic Russians in the Eastern Region, using military expulsion to treat them, and trying to join NATO to intimidate Russia and completely annoy Russia. If Ukraine had treated ethnic Russians like The Kazakhs and sent them back to Russia, the effect would have been much better.
Figure-Kiev
If a person is only fierce, his head will inevitably be broken and bleeding, not to mention a country, but Russia and Ukraine seem to have only a fierce side.