Xiaomi, Apple deep ploughing, hundreds of billions of scale track hardcore where?

Reporter: Gao Yuan

Camera: Zhang Hao, Li Wei

Zhao Yanchao is a partner of SAIFU Fund. He joined SAIF Investment Fund in 2005 and has more than 20 years of equity investment experience, leading the team to develop and invest in projects including: Tianxiaxiu, Global IELTS, NVC Lighting, NOVAST Pharmaceuticals, etc. During his tenure at CDB, he participated in the establishment of the state-level fund of funds - Guochuang Kaiyuan, and completed investment projects including Ant Financial, SF Holdings, Bishuiyuan Dingzeng, CRRC Dingzeng, TCL Group Dingzeng, Zhuolang Intelligent, Airport Shares, Guizhou Natural Gas, Kaixin Financial Services, Three Gorges Guarantee, etc.

A collection of ideas

Cloud-based trend is irreversible Smart hardware will be replaced?

Every family may need a smart partner for the next decade

Every era has a dominant hardware terminal mobile phone obsolete?

In the next five to ten years, what kind of products will be favored by capital?

Smart hardware rolling in a "closed loop"? Or is it a win-win situation in openness?

Are the Internet of Everything and industry agreements mutually exclusive or mutually exclusive?

What is the best business model for the future?

Who knows more about intelligence between traditional car companies and new forces?

Interview summary

GAO Yuan: Thanks to Mr. Zhao for accepting an exclusive interview with CBN, you have been focusing on investment in the field of intelligent hardware for many years, and there are many successful cases. Recently, we have seen the possibility of de-hardware, the development of software, and the future replacement of intelligent hardware by cloud and software, how do you judge the investment opportunities of this track?

Zhao Yanchao: The trend of cloudification is irreversible, and the trend of cloudification provides more, richer and more exciting opportunities and growth for the intelligent hardware track. It turns out that there is no cloud like today, whether it is an edge cloud or a remote computing power, it puts this part of the hardware, equipment, and devices into the terminal on your hand, which occupies a part of the terminal volume, and now puts a part of the volume and weight into the cloud, but it is more liberating of other components, such as display, sound, what we hear later is the sound of the panorama, and the image of the intelligent hardware is richer and the degree of reduction is better, and this device will be more in the future, which is a trend; you can put the computing power, transmission, Data put into the cloud, then the display, acoustic part, battery life part, or through the terminal device to show; at present we think there are several important trends, one is AR, VR it is not necessarily a final solution that can replace the smart phone, but it may be a transitional product, especially AR products, it is likely to be an extension of the smartphone screen, we think it should be possible to be on the eve of the growth explosion.

Under the premise that China's manufacturing industry is very mature, we are very optimistic about Chinese companies and need to have two technologies to achieve breakthroughs. One is optical, one is display, but these two technologies actually did not start from 0, and now the technology of optical waveguide, the technology of curved surfaces are on the verge of an explosion, and we think that these two technologies have a small breakthrough that will bring about a maturity and molding of the glasses track.

Gao Yuan: The cloud-based trend of intelligent hardware makes the investment opportunities of which tracks have entered your vision?

Saifu Fund Zhao Yanchao: From the perspective of hardware, one is medical hardware; one is wearable, like VR, AR belongs to this kind of wearable equipment; one is new energy vehicles, which are provided with intelligent hardware on the new energy vehicle track; and there is also our totoB track; about 4 categories, especially the combination of software and hardware, this kind of start-up enterprise, for the traditional large industry of this kind of giant is an opportunity for transformation, upgrading, generation, we are very optimistic. In addition, there may be a day on the basis of functional robots, these robots may give some emotion, it is an ultimate need of human beings, I think it seems now that there may be an ultimate need, is not the next 10 years of every family or everyone needs to have a partner.

Gao Yuan: There is also a problem of competition and mutual substitution between smart hardware, for example, there is this relationship between smart phones and cameras, how will this trend change, and eventually one of them will have the upper hand and become a possibility to dominate all mobile terminals and hardware? Will this happen?

Saifu Fund Zhao Yanchao: From the perspective of the development of intelligent hardware, it does have a blockbuster product in every 10 years and every era, and it is a dominant mainstream, for example, our era is a smart phone, starting from Apple's launch of smart phones, with it as the core, there are many products derived, such as wearable derivatives of online games and other industries. We are also asking ourselves, who is the next blockbuster? AR, VR in the transition, it will bring a small growth demand flashpoint, but it may not be an interactive, associated relationship with the mobile phone, in the end who will replace the mobile phone, the real Internet technology of these leaders may not be able to answer this question. But we think that in any era, it has such a dominant terminal.

First Finance Gao Yuan: Intelligent hardware is developing, especially in the field of mobile terminals, and indeed the functions are becoming more and more powerful, but there does not seem to be a product that can replace the collection of mobile phones.

Zhao Yanchao: At present, there is no hardware that can challenge the dominant position of mobile phones now, and a scholar abroad once said that "disruptive construction" is destructive construction. We always think that it must be at a certain point, maybe not necessarily the long phone you see now, such a device, may start from software, may start from a service in the cloud, it is from near and far destructive to replace it.

Gao Yuan: You have invested in a lot of very good smart hardware targets, what are the common features of the targets that enter the scope and vision of your investment?

Saifu Fund Zhao Yanchao: It should be said that there are common characteristics, you see Tencent Ali from 20 years ago, to achieve such a huge platform now, in fact, they are not technological innovation, they are innovation in the model, a business model, a good idea, with a platform economy way, due to China's such a large market, such a large traffic, collected, concentrated resources can be centralized optimization, this is an innovation;

The second innovation point is the innovation of core technology, the new generation, from the policy guidance of the Beijing Stock Exchange, "specialized, refined, special, new" to do this kind of small giant, I think this is right, in this era is What China is urgently lacking;

The third innovation comes from the market, we analyze the success of Apple in the past abroad, the success of Xiaomi in the country, we only talk about hardware, its culture is combined on the basis of technological innovation, with a product manager's point of view of the world. What do product managers pay the most attention to? Excellent product manager must have the ability to empathize, he can always find consumers, always can find the point where the crowd is stimulated, the so-called pain point is good, the so-called emotional point is good, the product manager he may not be very technical, technology is very intensive, but he needs to understand technology.

I think in this era, in the next 5 to 10 years, successful entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial entrepreneurs, young generation of entrepreneurs, I value two points the most: one is that he has the core technical innovation ability; the second is that he has this kind of product manager vision. Combining these two points is a very scarce talent, and we have to surround him, to provide him with services and bullets.

First Finance Gao Yuan: At present, there is also a closed-loop problem in the ecosystem of the entire intelligent hardware, for example, Xiaomi has a system and system of Xiaomi's home, and it is difficult for other intelligent hardware to enter this system. Like I buy smart hardware, I usually buy a series of products of a brand, so that it will be better integrated, so that it will form a situation where the head effect is becoming more and more obvious. It may also have some impact on your usual selection of targets, because you must choose some new targets, and at such a time, new targets will really be more likely to appear? Or is it easy to be caught up in head trends?

Zhao Yanchao: Teacher Gao, you really asked a very good question. In fact, the hardware is indeed the millet ecology is very powerful, the millet ecology and just we talked about compared to several other ecosystems, I think the millet ecology is doing a better point, its ecology is to empower these entrepreneurs in the millet ecology, rather than control. For example, you see some other strong platforms, especially the Internet platform, which is a kind of control over its internal entrepreneurship, which is also the xiaomi ecology should be the most, that is, from the perspective of listing, from the perspective of the capital market to give it the value to give it a return, it should be the best.

What I call empowerment is, first, to give them enough freedom; second, to give them enough incentive equity. Stone Technology, No. 9 Robot, their founder in the listed company is a large proportion of equity, he has the right to speak, there is a return of this income, bringing his enthusiasm, this is where Xiaomi does well, is this enough, the cause of monopoly, I still do not see so. What can really subvert these giants must be new enterprises and products. You see, the Hive Technology Glasses we just invested, it is a semi-xiaomi ecology, teacher Lei Jun, xiaomi ecology also saw the trend. We look at TikTok from a global perspective, its subversion of Facebook is ruthless, TikTok we call it Byte, not a vassal of a big factory, this trend is irreversible. I think that in the new generation, new things need to be borrowed in replacing old things. Borrowing power may be internal incubation, may be an entrepreneur for the big factory, a cognition of resources, like Huang Zheng, Wang Xing is actually a big factory out, he just did not start a business within the big factory, he left the big factory after his own business, in fact, it represents a certain degree of trend, the rise of the US group, Pinduoduo will rise, it is not Ali, it is not Tencent's own internal project.

First Finance Gao Yuan: For a long time there has been a Bluetooth system, NFC also has a system of its certification, the future will form a so-called protocol in the entire intelligent hardware, communication protocol, etc., so that the whole can break the closed loop of this monopoly problem, better development. Has this prototype been formed?

Zhao Yanchao: One of my own views, I don't think their future is a completely mutually exclusive one. And in the general trend of the Internet of Things, it should be more of an inclusive, who can do the best of open source, take the mass route is more able to bring opportunities for development, such as LoRa technology (long-distance radio) Helium network ecology is currently showing a strong growth momentum abroad, we are also paying close attention to the intelligent hardware investment opportunities in the Helium system. But who will become a country and a world through agreement, I myself have not seen it that way.

Gao Yuan: Many times everyone feels that after occupying most of the market share, they have the right to negotiate and negotiate, and in the past there was such a saying, "To create a demand, it is better to create an agreement, to create an agreement than to create an industry norm." "From the perspective of smart hardware manufacturers, is there also a consideration in this regard?"

Zhao Yanchao: These views you talked about are logical from a business point of view, but not necessarily from an ecological point of view. The good business model we see must be that every dollar I earn makes my customers, my partners more enjoyable and easier to make money, which is a business logic that I particularly value; not that the dollar I earn makes you more uncomfortable, makes you more inward-looking, I don't think that through an agreement, through subsidies, through threats to circle a piece of land, and then everyone does it according to this rule, I don't recognize this business logic, although this practice is not a certain space, Or there are a lot of people who agree with this path, and I do see some people and companies doing it, but I don't want to do it myself, I'd rather do a win-win, symbiosis, everyone incremental, and support each other instead of an inward-volume model.

First Finance Gao Yuan: The car should be a large-scale intelligent hardware product, saying that you are more optimistic about this kind of company like Tesla, Apple, which is really a smart hardware to do smart cars, or are you more optimistic about these well-known car brands in the past to improve their own technology and genes to make smart cars?

Zhao Yanchao: I am one-sided optimistic about new car companies, but can anyone kill traditional car companies? I also have an open mind to pay attention. Intelligent hardware, it must be accompanied by data, data transmission, data storage, data display, and hardware an interaction, and the interaction of the cloud, this is called intelligent hardware, this logic empowers the car, due to the rise of new energy technology, it is subversive to the transformation of the car, rather than saying that you through a original chassis plus tires plus wheels plus internal combustion engine, and then design user experience This traditional model to the transformation can be achieved, the future who can truly become the mainstream of a market, I think this latecomer advantage seems too obvious at the moment.

In fact, Tesla is in the new energy vehicle, it is considered traditional. It has large-scale mass production, the ultimate cost performance of this thing is very good, to Weilai as the representative of the new domestic car manufacturing forces, it is completely from the user, from the product manager empathy point to start, the consumer all the tiny needs of the mined out, reflected in my products. And where are the opportunities for traditional cars? I think their opportunity must be to embrace this change, who can be the best at self-transformation, and may be able to become part of a new generation.

"Investors Say" is a professional talk show focusing on stock investment and equity investment launched by First Finance. The invited guests come from professional investment companies, all of which personally manage hundreds of millions of assets, and are truly "powerful factions". The program focuses on emerging industries, macroeconomics, and investment concepts, excavates the most valuable viewpoints, and provides a strong reference for your investment decisions.

Views are for informational purposes and do not constitute investment advice

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