Yesterday said that Musk's 300T belongs to the big mouth and was attacked by some people. Comments and various sizes on the ball V began to wash Musk's floor, arguing the possibility of 300T, imagining iron is not enough.
Or look at Musk's original words, translated from the live video, here is a continuous passage:
Our orders far exceed our production volumes. You know, just a question. We need to make more of our production than our current order volume and then expand into new products to make sense.
If we add complexity but we can't increase production, it's actually meaningless.
So when we can increase production and meet the needs of existing markets, we will expand to other markets and I will add more products.
I think there was a chip shortage last year and everyone knows that. The challenge next year is overall battery production, and how many Gwh of batteries can be made is a limiting factor. Looking deeper into the supply chain, considering ethical and environmental sensitivities, how much battery material is mined and smelted each year is appropriate.
And then, in general, how many Twh batteries do you need to make in a year? According to our rough calculations, it will take about 300 TWh to transform the world into a sustainable energy economy. This is a lot of batteries.
It's possible, I think we're actually doing a good job, we're growing, growing 80% or more a year.
So, we didn't go into more markets and didn't launch more products.
There are also some words, not so continuous, but the meaning is clear, and it is not out of context:
I don't think we're going to use graphene, but we're going to use graphite.
In the long run, the basic material is nickel anode, nickel we use on the long endurance version, lithium iron phosphate we use on standard endurance, and I think manganese has interesting potential forms.
Because the amount of use is very large, millions of tons, so the material used in large quantities must be ordinary materials, and rare materials cannot be applied in large quantities. Graphene is difficult to manufacture. The fundamental reason is that basic materials must be manufactured in large quantities in an ethical and environmentally friendly manner. Iron, phosphoric acid, and manganese, as negative electrodes, can be widely used.
Although radical, it is also possible to achieve the goal of producing 20 million cars per year within a decade.
Going back to the 300T question, there may be some ambiguity from the original words above.
Some people say that this 300T is the sum of all the annual battery production, the battery scale in use in the future, some people say that this is not only an electric vehicle, but also energy storage, trucks, airplanes, robots, etc., some people say that each has energy storage batteries twenty degrees, there are three billion people in the world with consumption power, and one billion households X20 degrees, which is 20T, but it is not enough.
It is also said that the global power generation in 2020 is 27 trillion kWh, which is an average of 27000/365 = 74TWH per day, and only stores 74*4 = 296 TWH for 4 days, which is close to the value mentioned by Musk.
I don't want to argue here whether the 300T is the total or the annual output, whether it is 300T or 2.7T in one year.
Although Musk's annual production of 20 million cars has set a record, it is also achievable, after all, there are about 100 million passenger car markets in the world a year, and the current record created by Volkswagen and Toyota is a little more than 10 million, and it is not impossible for Musk to set a new record.
In the end, those footballers who believe in the truth of a super big V like Musk still block me early, sooner or later.
Although Musk is an excellent person with many advantages, there is no need to praise everywhere, praise or support, truth-seeking, questioning or criticizing, that is everyone's right.
Faith is good for chasing stars, contempt or disgust, can be expressed arbitrarily, there is no need to force others, and there is no need to speak harshly to each other.
Whether it is emotional ambiguity or rational numbers, how to discuss, how to call the line can be, there is no need to rise to the height of personal attack.
Then to show you, some of the more authoritative institutions predict the energy structure, for the reference of the size V, and then you can continue to argue why Musk's 300T is reasonable and possible. I'm also curious about the answer to this question.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 refers to projects from the case study, which explores long-term energy trends in the United States. Renewables will flourish, especially when it comes to generating electricity, the EIA said in its long-term forecast. However, by 2050, oil will still account for the largest share of overall U.S. energy consumption, followed by natural gas. As the share of battery, plug-in and hybrid electric vehicles rises, the share of traditional car sales will decline. Total sales of light vehicles with internal combustion engines will fall from 92 percent today to 79 percent in 2050.
On December 16, 2021, the China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2021 Green Paper on Climate Change, "Responding to Climate Change Report 2021: Carbon Peak Carbon Neutrality Album", which predicts that the proportion of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will reach about 35%, 68% and 80% by 2035, 2050 and 2060, respectively.
In June 2021, the International Energy Agency released the 2050 Energy Zero Emission Roadmap Report. From 2020 to 2050, coal demand will fall by 90%, oil demand by 75%, and natural gas demand by 55% (see Figure 2). Natural gas is the only fossil energy source with a temporary increase in demand in the future.
Figure 2 Forecast of fossil energy demand under the zero carbon emission pathway
Low-emission fuels are actually alternative fuels to fossil fuels that are compatible with existing fossil fuel supply infrastructure and end-use technologies without the need for any modifications to equipment or vehicles. Low-emission fuels mainly include liquid biofuels, biogas, biomethane and hydrogen-based fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia.
From the perspective of the difficulty of energy transition, low-emission fuels are mainly used to meet long-distance heavy trucks, shipping ships, aviation and other scenarios, which are not economical or technically difficult to achieve with electrified transportation. Although the development of electric vehicles has made a huge contribution to the reduction of emissions in the transportation field, due to the limitation of the small energy density of battery volume, long-distance heavy trucks, shipping ships, aviation and other scenarios are not suitable for electric transportation.
Currently, low-emission fuels account for only 1% of global final energy consumption, increasing to 20% by 2050. Liquid biofuels account for 14% of global transport energy from 4% in 2020 to 14% by 2050; hydrogen fuels can meet 28% of transport energy needs by 2050. Low-carbon gases (biomethane, synthetic methane and hydrogen) could meet 35% of global natural gas demand by 2050, and the proportion is now almost zero (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 Comparison of different modes of transport and fuel types from 2050 to 2050
Renewables contribute the most to the decarbonisation of the net-zero electricity sector. Renewable energy will almost triple by 2030 and increase eightfold by 2050. The share of renewables in total electricity generation will grow from 29% in 2020 to more than 60% in 2030 and will grow to nearly 90% by 2030 (see Figure 6).
Figure 6 Electricity energy structure by 2050
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