Rogozin, general manager of the Russian Aerospace Corporation, said that the group will make a decision on the time to end cooperation on the International Space Station after receiving a reply from the space departments of the European Union, the United States and Canada on whether to lift sanctions against it.
Russian satellite news agency Moscow reported on March 14: Russian Space Group General Manager Rogozin said that the group will make a decision on the time to end cooperation on the International Space Station after receiving a reply from the european union, the United States and Canada's space departments on whether to lift sanctions against them.
Rogozin said the group has written to NASA, the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency asking them to respond by the end of the month whether to lift sanctions against the group:
"In our letter to the space departments of the United States, Canada and the European Union, we ask them to begin studying in their respective countries the lifting of illegal sanctions against our companies and to inform us of the relevant decisions by the end of this month." This will allow us to develop a final position on when to end cooperation on the International Space Station. ”
It looks like an ultimatum warning that if ESA, NASA, and the Canadian Space Agency don't respond, the Russian Space Agency will make a choice at the end of the month to decide the fate of the International Space Station!
If the West does not lift sanctions: what will be the fate of the International Space Station?
The International Space Station involves international cooperation projects of five space agencies and 16 participating countries, which began construction in 1998 and was basically completed in 2011, a total of 13 years, and its main participating countries left space segments and accessories on the International Space Station were the United States, Russia, ESA, Japan and Canada, of which Canada only had a robotic arm.
How much weight does Russia have on the International Space Station?
If you really calculate by the weight, Russia's proportion is really not large, the red part of the picture above is the Russian module, including dawn, star and science three modules, and there are several experimental modules, in total, not to 1/5 of the proportion of the International Space Station, but the energy of the Russian module is not small.
Because the first module launched by the International Space Station is the Dawn and the third module is the Zvezda service module, both of which, despite their "long history", are all here for fuel and power modules on the International Space Station.
The earliest "Dawn" engine completed the orbit change and maintenance in orbit, because this is the first cabin must have the function, if there is no power, in case of delay this cabin will crash, and later the "Star" service module is an all-rounder.
The Star
The entire service chamber weighs 18,051 kg and is 13.1 m long, the solar panels are 29.7 m when unfolded, equipped with two 3070 N S5.79 large main engines, plus 16 attitude engines, and four fuel tanks with a total capacity of 860 kg, with fuel types of nitrous oxide and metamethylhydrazine.
The space station consumes up to 7.5 tons of fuel a year, and the rest of the fuel is loaded on the "Aurora" module, with a total of 16 external fuel tanks, which can accommodate up to 6.1 tons of fuel.
In addition to power, there are a variety of subsistence and living facilities: including power, sleeping areas, toilets, kitchens, CO2 filters, dehumidifiers, oxygen generators and sports equipment, as well as modules for data, voice and television communication with the Mission Control Center. You don't have to doubt that this is a cabin similar to a Tiangong core cabin, even if it is independent, there is no problem.
What is even more amazing is that in addition to the solar cells installed on the trusses on the International Space Station, only the solar cells in the Russian module are installed independently, which means that Russia has always considered leaving the International Space Station in an emergency, including the Aurora, the Star and the science module.
International Space Station: Russia can do without the United States, the United States can't do without Russia
The other modules of the International Space Station are very complete with electricity and experimental and living facilities, but the only thing is missing the power module, originally thought that the Russian module already has it, why should it be another extra segment? In fact, this problem is quite realistic, because at the beginning of the construction of the space station, the space shuttle was vigorous, but then the space shuttle was decommissioned, the transportation of supplies and fuel, and the astronauts on and off the International Space Station were all carried out by the Soyuz spacecraft.
The soyuz cargo spacecraft fuel supply interface is only compatible with the Russian module, which is embarrassing, can only be set up in the Russian module main engine and attitude engine, the other cabins are hitchhiking, including most of the United States cabins.
Without the Russian section of the US module, nearly 7 tons of fuel can be carried to meet the needs of many years of orbit maintenance! The International Space Station, which lacks a Russian module, is expected to crash in 1-2 years, because the thin atmospheric molecules at the height of the International Space Station can make it fall at least 2 kilometers per month, and if it encounters a solar storm that expands the upper atmosphere, it may have a greater impact.
The three future endings of the International Space Station: Which one will come true?
In summary, there are only three outcomes to the future of the International Space Station:
The family broke up and crashed
After the separation of the Russian module, the International Space Station has no power, then it will crash after 1-2 years, the original International Space Station will crash controllably in 2031 after 9 years, and there are 9 years of use time, which is a large amount of high-quality resources, and it is a pity to crash.
Launch power compartment
The Americans have this ability, NASA quickly created a power module to the sky, please Spacex Falcon rocket to send up, the operation is completely OK, just spend a lot of extra money, this NASA is also wronged, mainly or the US government forced Russia to be too urgent caused, unjust debt has a master.
Maintain operations
The possibility of continuing to operate is relatively large, the only place where the United States and Russia have not torn their faces is the International Space Station, the United States has gathered the entire Western sanctions against Russia is really an all-round dead end, and Russia can "fight back" there are really not many places, the international space station is the only place that can make Americans uncomfortable.
Some kind of compromise may be reached, but what does the future hold? Perhaps the 2022 launch plan of the Baikonur Cosmodrome can tell us something:
1. March 18, Moscow time, 18:55:19: The Soyuz 2 rocket will launch the Soyuz MS-21 spacecraft (Number 750, Islamic Space Station Mission 66S), transporting three crew members from Baikonur to the International Space Station. 2. June 3, 12:23 Moscow time: The Soyuz rocket launches the ProgressiveMS-20 cargo spacecraft from Baikonur to the International Space Station. 3. At 16:54 Moscow time on September 21, the Soyuz 2 rocket launched the Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft carrying three crew members from Baikonur to the International Space Station. 4. October 26, 03:19 Moscow time: The Soyuz rocket launched the Progress MS-21 cargo spacecraft from Baikonur to the International Space Station.
The above are four missions launched from the Baikonur Space Launch Site to the International Space Station, 2 manned and 2 cargo, if the timetable is not changed, then the COOPERATION between the United States and Russia should continue, but it is difficult to say if it is changed, because at least 4 missions have been cancelled since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and a dozen other missions will become uncertain.
Although from the current point of view, the probability of cooperation is still very large, but what the future will be, may not be known for the time being!