The War in Ukraine has reached this point today, people no longer pay attention to whether this war has triggered a European war, a world war and other issues, about the impact and significance of this war, is also a topic that can be easily revisited, and what people are generally concerned about at present is the victory or defeat on the battlefield of this war.
One view is that Russia will achieve a complete victory
This view is that Ukraine will be completely destroyed and will cease to exist in the future, but will become part of a new Russia, on the grounds that President Putin has spoken out before the war and does not recognize Ukraine as an independent country. Those who put forward this view even believe that Russia will attack and expand after the settlement of Ukraine, to create a "new Soviet Union", and that this is Putin's ambition and goal.
Another asserts that Russia will suffer a complete defeat
This view is that the Russian army is about to suffer a major rout on the Battlefield in Ukraine, because of the lack of logistical supplies and the counterattack harassment of the Ukrainian army, so the Russian army will collapse and suffer a total and complete defeat. Pulled by this defeat, Putin will be ousted, Russia will disintegrate again, and the collapse of the former Soviet Union will occur again. In order to enhance their persuasiveness, some people have also moved out the famous American scholar Francis Fukuyama, who is said to have also held this view and written a major work entitled "The Indispensable Necessity of Evil Forces" as proof.
Obviously, neither of the above two extreme opinions has much rationality or logic to speak of, but they are subjective and emotional, and the actual outcome of the war will not occur.
In addition to the extreme opinions in the above two aspects, the general discussion is nothing more than the following three possibilities:
First, Ukraine won
That is, Ukraine won a relative victory. According to the current scenario that NATO will not directly participate in the war, it is not realistic for Ukraine to completely defeat Russia and drive russian armed forces out of Ukraine. In fact, before this war, Ukraine could not even control the civilian armed forces in the independent East Ukrainian region, and now how can it defeat the joint efforts of the Russian army and the east Ukrainian armed forces? But if done well, Ukraine can hold the main areas, ruin Russia's established military plan, and make it unable to achieve the established operational objectives and tasks, as long as it does this, Ukraine will win.
Second, Russia won
Russia achieved its established goals and completed the military action plan it designed, the Ukrainian armed forces were generally disintegrated, the neo-Nazi forces were eliminated, the pro-American and pro-Western political forces in Ukraine were crushed, and Russia achieved remarkable victories.
Third, the two sides compromised an armistice
The War in Ukraine was a very strange war, with battles on the battlefield alternating and parallel with handshakes at the negotiating table. The so-called "war" is only the definition of outside commentary, and the official term of the Russian side is nothing more than "special military operations". Frankly, russia's description is more accurate. Maybe the Ukrainian side thinks the same thing and sees it this way.
Because of this, it is entirely possible for russia and Ukraine to reach a compromise and put an agreement to end this activity between them. As for the basic nature and specific content of this agreement, it depends on the game between them. In terms of nature, it is possible from a peace agreement to an armistice agreement; in terms of specific content, the sovereignty issues of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkov, the neutrality of Ukraine, the neo-Nazi question, etc., may be included, and may even include the fate of The Ukrainian Zelensky and the composition and structure of the aftermath government; in terms of the extent, from dismemberment to castration, to partial accommodation of the present Ukraine, it may be achieved.
So what will be the outcome of the ongoing war?
Our judgment is that the first result mentioned above no longer exists. Because today Ukraine has in fact lost a large area of land, lost a series of strategic places, and the relative victory has long disappeared.
Regarding the second possibility, the author believes that Russia can achieve military victory, but Russia's military victory has a strong relativity.
Comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the Russian and Ukrainian sides on the battlefield, on the whole, Russia did not fight very well, but the battlefield was still under the control of the Russian army, because the Ukrainian army was worse.
The specific performance is:
First, the advantages and disadvantages of the Russian side
The advantages of the Russian army are:
- The Russian army has the freedom to fight and repair, when it wants to fight, when it wants to turn to repair, when it wants to turn to repair; there is the freedom to carry out military operations, how to fight as it wants, such as the direction of attack, the scale of battle, the choice of weapons, etc., the Russian side has full autonomy to choose;
- There are sufficient reserve forces, which can be mobilized and organized into the battlefield one after another;
- There is a steady stream of ammunition and logistical support, and the tight supply in some areas and some troops is only a temporary phenomenon, but it can also be rescued and improved, and the ice will not happen as soon as Fukuyama envisions that it will be scattered when the ammunition is exhausted;
- With the cooperation and support of the militia forces of East Udonitek and Luhansk, they are known as civilian armed forces, but in fact they are not only quite regular, but also rich in combat experience, especially experience in urban defense and attack;
The shortcomings and deficiencies of the Russian army are:
——The mouth of the large-depth mechanized centripetal assault is too large, and if you want to eat a fat man in one bite, the sustainability of the attack is difficult to guarantee;
- Insufficient estimation and preparation for urban offensives and point-pulling operations, and lack of ability to seize military points and large cities;
- The lack of intelligence, information and logistical support affects the sharpness of combat operations and seriously reduces the intensity and intensity of operations;
Ii. Advantages and disadvantages of the Ukrainian army:
The advantages of the Ukrainian army are:
- Have the will and courage to resist to a certain extent, and be able to fight tenaciously in a decentralized and independent state;
----------------- Being able to build a dense defense system by relying on the strong buildings of urban buildings makes it difficult for the attacking side to move forward;
- There is support and assistance from the West, including all kinds of anti-armor weapons, individual anti-aircraft weapons, and, in particular, strong support and support in communications, intelligence, electronic information, etc.;
Shortcomings and deficiencies of the Ukrainian army:
- Passive response, passive defense, interspersed and divided, isolated and surrounded, showing the dilemma of being broken by each other;
- Lack of organization and coordination, fighting separately, and falling into the disadvantageous situation of "the strength of the small enemy";
- Logistical supplies are unsustainable, war resources are exhausted, and reserve forces are depleted;
Under the above comparison of advantages and disadvantages, the fate of waiting for the Ukrainian army is to be destroyed one after another, and the cities held by the Ukrainian army will continue to be attacked and fallen, and it is only a matter of time before they fail. The author estimates that according to the current process, in another half a month or so, the organized fighting of the Ukrainian army will be basically crushed. From a military point of view, for the Ukrainian side, this means that the war has been lost. As for the hope that there will be some guerrilla warfare after this, the Russian army will be trapped in it and the Afghan war will be like that, this is probably just wishful thinking.
Correspondingly, the victory of the Russian army is only a matter of time, and there is no doubt about it. But the victory of the Russian army was not as brilliant and brilliant as some people imagined. More importantly, to what extent can the victory of the Russian army on the battlefield be transformed into political, diplomatic and strategic victories, this is not a question in the military field, it can be bluntly said that the "special military operation" launched by Russian President Putin only provides the basis and conditions for solving the Ukrainian problem, and to what extent can the "Ukraine problem" in Russia's strategic definition be further resolved, not only between Russia and the Ukrainian authorities, but also between Russia and the entire Western bloc. The specific manifestations should be expressed and realized through negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Therefore, with regard to the victory or defeat of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the result will be a Russian victory, but victory does not mean an end, and this Ukrainian war will end with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. As for what kind of agreement can be reached between Russia and Ukraine, things on the battlefield are only partially effective. For Russia, it is impossible without victory on the battlefield, but victory on the battlefield alone is not enough, and it also requires a broader and deeper strategic contest.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", for the original work of this platform, in the new year, I wish everyone to join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.