So far, the Russo-Ukrainian war has been going on for nearly three weeks, and the two sides have now launched three rounds of negotiations and held a meeting of foreign ministers. However, these negotiations have not achieved obvious results, and the war is still raging. On March 14, local time, Russia and Ukraine will hold the fourth round of negotiations through online video. Before the negotiations began, the Ukrainian media "Weekly Mirror" said that through the "reliable sources of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry" to obtain the six major armistice conditions proposed by the Russian side, only ukraine accepted all of them, the Russian army will completely truce. According to the media, Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly demanded that the top five of the six conditions proposed by the Russian side must be written into the Ukrainian constitution.
According to the Weekly Mirror, the six major conditions proposed by the Russian side are: First, Ukraine will always give up its attempt to join NATO and will always maintain a neutral position. If so, Russia will guarantee Ukraine's security. Second, the establishment of Russian as one of the official languages of Ukraine and the repeal of all restrictions on the use of Russian. Third, the recognition of the Crimean Peninsula as Russian territory. Fourth, the Ukrainian government allowed the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to become independent, recognizing the two "people's republics" as independent states. Fifth, Ukraine was completely de-Nazified, all neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist parties were dissolved, and all laws and regulations glorifying the Nazis were abolished. Sixth, de-militarize Ukraine, destroy all offensive weapons and disband offensive forces. A careful analysis of the six conditions put forward by Russia shows that this is a refinement of putin's declarations on "protecting the 'Luhansk People's Republic' and 'Donetsk People's Republic'" and "de-militarizing and de-Naziratizing Ukraine" before launching the "special military operations".
From this we can see that since the war has been going on, the goal of Russia's war has not changed, which means that the current war situation is still in the hands of the Russian army. Some media believe that the Russian army has not been able to eliminate the main forces of the Ukrainian army and conquer the main cities of Ukraine within a few days as the outside world expected, so they believe that the Russian army has fallen into a passive situation on the battlefield, and even some media and netizens have also rumored that the Russian army is about to face collapse. However, it is not difficult to see from the requirements put forward by the Russian side that Russia's attitude and position are still very firm, and if the situation of the Russian military is really as bad as some media and netizens say, then the Russian side will certainly not be so tough at the negotiating table, but will strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible to end the war. Therefore, at present, the Russian army still has absolute initiative, and even some analysts believe that the Russian army has not yet launched a full-scale offensive against Kiev, Kharkiv and other important cities, that is, to use these large cities as bargaining chips to force Ukraine to submit.
So will the Ukrainian side agree to these conditions? Now it seems that at least in the fourth round of negotiations, the possibility of the Ukrainian side accepting the Russian conditions is extremely low. First of all, the conditions put forward by the Russian side are very harsh: although Crimea joined Russia through a referendum, the legality of this referendum is disputed, and most countries, including Western countries, still believe that Crimea is Ukrainian territory, and the situation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts is similar to that of Crimea. If such conditions are agreed, then it is tantamount to a land cut and peace, which is unacceptable in Ukraine, where ultra-nationalism is now rife. Second, Russia's demand that Russian be made the official language of Ukraine is suspected of interfering in Ukraine's internal affairs. Finally, the policy of "demilitarization" such as the disbanding of offensive-capable armies and the destruction of offensive weapons has been implemented only for Germany and Japan, which launched World War II, and has not been carried out thoroughly. It is difficult to obtain civilian support for such a strict "demilitarization" policy towards Ukraine. For Ukrainian politicians, whoever signs such an agreement would not only mean the complete end of their political life, but even their personal safety.
Moreover, the Ukrainian side still has illusions that it still has the opportunity to defeat the Russian army. Although the Ukrainian army has made it clear that it is impossible to defeat the Russian army on the battlefield by means of a decisive battle with the main force, the Ukrainian government on the one hand hopes for NATO assistance, believing that as long as it continues to slow down the pace of the Russian army and continue to cause casualties to the Russian army, then NATO will sooner or later draw a no-fly zone, or even directly send troops to assist. On the other hand, the Ukrainian government pinned its hopes on Western economic sanctions against Russia, believing that as long as the Ukrainian army huddled in the city, engaged in street battles with the Russian army, and dragged out the war as long as possible, then Russia, which was not optimistic about its own economic situation and was subject to Western sanctions, would eventually withdraw its troops because it was unable to maintain the offensive. Although there is no evidence that these two events may have happened, at least a large number of Ukrainian government officials and Ukrainian officers and soldiers are convinced of this.
All in all, at present, the Russian army does hold the initiative on the battlefield, but it has not obtained enough huge results to shake the hearts of the Ukrainian army, neither capturing the main cities nor completely annihilating the main army of the Ukrainian army; and although the Ukrainian army is extremely passive, it can only shrink in the city and hold on, but believes that Western military assistance and economic sanctions may play a role. Now that both sides are convinced that they can win the war, it is almost impossible to achieve any substantive results in negotiations organized in this context. Unless there are major changes in the war situation in the near future, the negotiations will only fail again and again.