On 10 March 2022, the European Union held an informal meeting of heads of state, at which the "Statement on Russia's Military Aggression against Ukraine" was adopted, in which it was written that "on 28 February 2022, the President of Ukraine ... An application for Ukraine to become a member of the European Union was submitted. The Council acted expeditiously and requested the Committee to comment on the application in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaty. Until then, we will further strengthen our ties, deepen our partnership and support Ukraine on the European path without delay. ”
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine quickly submitted an application for membership, but the EU side had different considerations. It can be seen from the above statement that although the EU has verbally expressed its support and welcome for Ukraine's accession to the EU, it is vague and vague when it comes to how to do it, and seems unwilling to give Ukraine a definite commitment to join the EU. At present, the possibility of Ukraine joining the Union in the short term is relatively slim, specifically for the following five reasons:
The first is the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which does not know where to go. Until all the dust settles, the EU will certainly not set fire to ukraine, especially if its opponent is Russia. Needless to say.
A bombed-out mental hospital in Iyyum, eastern Ukraine
The second is that the EU's own willingness to expand eastward is not very strong, and this "attentive" statement is nothing more than a special reaction in a specific situation. The European Union admitted 13 Central and Eastern European countries to the EU in one go from 2004 to 2013, but "one bite can not be a fat man", and the EU has since suffered from "indigestion". On the one hand, the gap between the strength of the newly admitted countries and the old EU countries is too large, on the other hand, the ideas are particularly different, resulting in the current EU like a fat ball that is about to split in half, and it cannot be scored or retreated. If Ukraine, a country of 40 million people, is to be accepted, I am afraid that the EU will not be able to absorb it in the short term.
In 2004, Poland, Hungary and other ten countries joined the European Union. At that time, there was a lot of cheering within the EU, but it unexpectedly became a prelude to the EU's weight-bearing forward.
The third is that there are very strict criteria for eu-entry. The "Copenhagen Standard", simply put, democracy and human rights, the market economy and acceptance of EU laws, are the "iron ruler" for measuring whether a country can join the EU. At present, Ukraine is far from this standard, for example, Ukraine's per capita GDP is only 3378 US dollars, while the European Union is 35,000 US dollars. Thinking that the EU allowed some unqualified Central and Eastern European countries (such as Bulgaria, etc.) to join the EU for political reasons, causing a series of problems, the EU should learn a lesson this time and not "extra-legally" for countries that do not meet the standards.
After the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, in 1993, in order to meet the aspirations of Central and Eastern European countries to join the Union, the European Union formulated three criteria for joining the Union, namely the "Copenhagen Standard".
The fourth is that if the EU "opens a net" to Ukraine for political reasons, then other EU applicant countries, such as Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, do not know how to feel. Most of these countries have been working hard to join the EU, and some have been relatively close to the EU standards, but they are still "equal" for more than a decade. In addition, with two countries caught between Russia and Europe like Ukraine – Moldova and Georgia – are also interested in joining the EU, will the EU open a backdoor for an unqualified Ukraine to open a dangerous precedent for hasty admission of new members simply because of geopolitical competition?
The fifth is the EU's fear that Ukraine will become a "wedge" for the United States to break into the EU (as can be seen in Central and Eastern European countries). Because of Ukraine's important strategic location, no matter where this conflict goes, the United States will certainly use Ukraine in every possible way to deal with Russia in the future. If Ukraine joins the EU, the EU is likely to be more tightly tied to the US anti-Russian chariot because of the Russian-Ukrainian issue, which is what the EU, which is now pursuing "strategic autonomy", is not willing to see.
The United States is a ukrainian and anti-Russian crowd
In addition to the above five points, there are some reasons for Ukraine itself (such as religion, etc.) that have slowed the pace of its accession to the Union. But in short, since the EU has sworn that "Ukraine belongs to our European family", it means that it has begun to consider Ukraine's accession more seriously. However, whether Ukraine can really join the EU depends on the outcome of this conflict, and if Ukraine remains neutral, then its possibility of joining the EU is not high. But in any case, at least in the short term, Ukraine is unlikely to be accepted by the EU. (Taking 10,000 steps back, when Poland and other countries that already met the EU standards joined the EU, the procedure alone took several years!) ）
I am Anatomic Orange, a master's degree in European international relations. Like, comment and follow!