After the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States introduced comprehensive sanctions and export control measures, including a ban on the sale of designated high-tech products, including high-end semiconductor products, to Russia.
The Eu responded almost synchronously, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan following suit. The United States also told the media that if Chinese companies do not comply with U.S. export control measures against Russia, they will cut off the supply of U.S. equipment and software needed for their production.
The United States has made such a big move to restrict the export of chips to Russia, which must be to curb Russia's military or economic development, and 90% of Russia's chips rely on imports from Europe, the United States, etc., will Russia's economy be affected?
Which countries and which chips Russia imports
A report on Russia's chip import records in recent years shows that Russia imported about $40 million worth of bulk chips in the first half of 2021, and in the year before the new crown epidemic, Russia's chip imports were about $60-70 million.
This amount of data is quite small compared to the global chip market of about $550 billion, and specifically, Russia consumes only 0.1% of the global chip market each year, worth about $500 million.
This can show that Russia's development does not depend on chips, if there is no way to import these required chips, the impact on them is also minimal, of course not, relative to the global chip market is a small amount, and for Russia's industrial development, it is indispensable.
Russia's military strength is strong, and it does not need to rely on imported chips, which Russia buys from abroad, mostly for automobiles, industrial equipment, and some motor control chips. Because in addition to the military, Russia's economy is mainly dependent on heavy industry.
Willy Shih, a professor at Harvard Business School, said that a large part of Russia's imported chips are analog semiconductors for industrial equipment and items such as switches and motor control, and these chips are mostly supplied by American and European companies.
According to customs statistics, the brands with the highest import volume in Russia from 2017 to 2021 are Infineon, Integra, Mitsubishi, SEMIKRON, ABB, Fuji, AMPLEON, ON Semiconductor, ST, Wizard, etc.
Infineon, ABB, AMPLEON and ST are European companies, Integra, ON Semiconductor and Visnier are American companies, and Mitsubishi and Fuji are Japanese companies.
In addition, Russia will buy products from the two largest analog chip companies in the United States, TI and ADI, through distributors in Dubai and elsewhere.
In addition to analog chips, memory is also a large category of Russian imports, in the first seven months of 2021, Russia imported a total of about 50 million US dollars worth of memory chips, the annual import scale is expected to be close to 75 million US dollars. According to ImageGenius, Russia is the largest source of memory chips from Samsung, basically at about $15 million a year.
According to statistics, Russia's chip imports mainly come from Germany, Chinese mainland, the United States, Hong Kong, Finland, Japan and other countries and regions. Among them, in the four-and-a-half years from 2017 to the first half of 2021, Russia imported the largest amount from Germany, reaching nearly $100 million, and imported $25 million from Chinese mainland, close to the United States and Hong Kong.
From the perspective of Russia's past chip imports, mainly from Europe and the United States, Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions, and the current Europe and the United States, Japan, South Korea, etc. have launched export controls on it, China may also have difficulties in continuing to export chips to Russia, it can be seen that Russia is more difficult to buy chips, including analog, controller and power, etc., or industrial control, automotive use of chips and devices.
Russia's military is strong, and its consumption and industrial chips are weak
Before everyone said that Russia's military strength is strong, although the vast majority of Russian chips rely on imports, but because of the main military chips, Russia has its own manufacturing capabilities, so in terms of military chips, Russia is not afraid of the United States to restrict its exports, it is true.
The initial period of integrated circuit technology coincided with the Cold War period between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union considered the threat of nuclear strikes, and gave priority to choosing tube technology with stronger radiation resistance between the two technical routes of transistors and electron tubes. Later, on the basis of this technology, the "Ta Excitation Crystal Oscillator" was successfully introduced.
"He excitation crystal oscillator" belongs to the external excitation crystal oscillator, is a kind of intermediate frequency integrator, and today's high-end chips, it uses relatively simple analog circuit technology to achieve intermediate frequency phase reference accumulation. Although the volume of the "ta excitation crystal oscillator" is far larger than that of high-end chips, it has super high stability, so Russia gives priority to using it in the military field.
In terms of consumers, in fact, Russia is not worried about being sanctioned by chips, and the semiconductor industry is a typical capital-intensive industry that requires large-scale and long-term continuous investment. However, perennial internal and external troubles have made the Russian private economy itself difficult to develop the civilian consumer electronics industries such as mobile phones and tablets.
Yoga Devices released a smartphone with double-sided screens that supported reading on paper books, but later declared bankruptcy in 2019 because the company was not doing well.
From the data point of view, Russia in the semiconductor terminal market, the purchase volume accounted for only about 2% of the global computer and smart phone shipments, for Russia, or pay more attention to the military industry, the civilian field mainly depends on the import of finished products.
Military and consumer chips do not rely on or are not affected by chip sanctions, but in terms of industry, 90% of Russia's chips rely on imports, and this imported chip is estimated to be used in the industrial field.
If you can't buy chips, it means that Russia's industry will be affected by the shortage of chips, in fact, the previous sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia have affected Russian companies.
At present, there are two major Russian integrated circuit manufacturers, Микрон and Ангстрем, the former providing 65-250 nanometer processes, the latter providing 90-250 nanometer processes with 8-inch fabs, the two companies mainly provide products in the military, aerospace and industrial sectors.
In 2016, Ангстрем was added to the sanctions list by the U.S. Department of Commerce during the purchase of necessary products from AMD at a plant in Zelenograd to update the process process, and the transaction was suspended. As a result, the company fell into a debt crisis and was on the verge of bankruptcy, and later the Russian State Development Group VEB.RF, the largest creditor of the former Soviet Electronics Research Institute, jointly intervened with the Russian government to jointly reorganize the company and retain the company.
There have been previous reports that Russia is not afraid of sanctions, and there is another reason why Russia cannot buy chips from the United States and the European Union, and can also switch to other countries. Now that the United States restricts the export of Russian chips is almost all-round, the next Russian chip imports may face greater difficulties.