According to German media reports recently, Carlo Marsala, a well-known military expert and professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, has previously analyzed the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin correctly. In an interview with the media, he outlined the war strategy that Putin might adopt. The professor pointed out that if Russia wants to appear as a world power, it does not need to conquer many countries, Ukraine alone is enough, and it does not need to occupy all of Ukraine's territory.
What is left of post-war Ukraine? Russia may have three lines of goal there: the first is to occupy the arc from Donbass to Romania-Moldova, thereby cutting off Ukraine from the sea; the second is to conquer the fertile agricultural soils of eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper river and the south, so that Ukraine's wealth will be largely collected by Russia: the third is to conquer Ukraine to the westernmost part, that is, Galicia, or the land of the Western Ukrainian People's Republic that existed from 1918 to 1919, that is, the region centered on Lviv.
In this way, Russia could build a land bridge to Hungary, while Ukraine had only one tail south of Poland. Professor Marsala is not surprised by Russia's current military operations on the ground. This is not to occupy Ukraine, but to put pressure on the foundation. It was still a question of Donbass and Crimea, the construction of land bridges to separate those territories. But Donbass doesn't seem to be Putin's only target, otherwise why would Kiev be attacked too? First of all, Putin has said that he does not want to occupy Ukraine, which is obviously the truth, and he does not need to lie at this time.
But he also spoke of the demilitarization and de-Nazismization of Ukraine, which ultimately meant Moscow wanted a different Kiev government. Moreover, he wants to make the Ukrainian army, which does not side with him in the face of a change of government, incapacitated. That's exactly what he's doing now. So the question now is, really, what will happen in the next wave? Is there an attempt to attack President Zelenskiy's official residence on the basis of the motto "You leave voluntarily or we will catch you"?
Russia's statement on the de-Nazimization and demilitarization of Ukraine is very important. This is to crush the Ukrainian army, because Putin probably knows that these troops will not side with the pro-Russian government in death. This, of course, will turn a new page. Putin said in his speech: "They will sanction us, they will sanction us anyway, we are ready." "Therefore, there will be no measures in terms of sanctions that will surprise Moscow." They also have no ambition to conquer the world, and the West does not have to worry too much. Text/PY