The Paper' trainee reporter Fan Shengtao
"To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the low-carbon transformation of the energy production and consumption structure, the carbon reduction and decarbonization of the industrial sector, the electrification and hydrogenization of the transportation sector, the implementation of green and low-carbon buildings in cities and the deep energy conservation of the entire social economy should become the fundamental way out." Xu Lin, chairman of the Sino-US Green Foundation, said this at the third Yanqi Lake Forum held by the Yanqi Lake Research Institute and the Chinese think tank on July 2.
Xu Lin, chairman of the Sino-US Green Foundation Image source: Courtesy of Xu Lin
Xu Lin believes that compared with developed countries, it is more difficult for China to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality on schedule, but new breakthroughs in green low-carbon technologies, especially zero-carbon energy technologies related to solar energy utilization efficiency, and the construction of a systematic and effective incentive system can better help China's dual-carbon goals to be achieved on schedule
Challenges and challenges of the dual carbon target
Xu Lin said that the carbon emissions challenge facing China is huge and difficult. Because China is a big country in terms of population, production, consumption, export, and emissions. China's total carbon emissions and carbon emissions per unit of GDP are among the best in the world, and the total emissions and per capita emissions are still rising. For example, he said, "Statistics show that China's total carbon emissions in 2020 will exceed 10 billion tons, accounting for about 28% of the world's total, which is more than China's population and GDP in the world's total, because Chinese account for about one-fifth of the global population, and China's GDP accounts for only a little more than 17% of global GDP, which shows that our per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions per unit of GDP are relatively high." ”
Xu Lin said that as the income level of Chinese residents continues to increase and consumption demand upgrades, the per capita energy consumption level and total energy consumption will further increase. At present, the average energy consumption of Chinese is 3.5 tons of standard coal / person / year, which is still a big gap with developed countries, equivalent to about one-third of the United States, about two-thirds of Germany and Japan, but in the future it will further converge to the level of developed countries. However, we can only converge with Germany and Japan, which have higher levels of energy efficiency, but not the United States, provided that our energy efficiency levels are up to or even higher than those of Germany and Japan.
"The peak of energy consumption is closely related to the peak of carbon emissions, unless the energy structure is significantly adjusted, the resulting carbon emission reduction effect can offset the carbon emission increase effect caused by the increase in energy consumption." It can be seen that even if the carbon peak is achieved on schedule, it will not be an easy task for China. He said that it is more difficult for us to achieve carbon neutrality after achieving carbon peaking on schedule and then further achieving carbon neutrality than in developed countries. From peak to neutralization, we only have 30 years. However, in the past, developed countries such as Europe and the United States generally experienced about 50-80 years, and our carbon emission reduction curve will be steeper than them.
Xu Lin introduced that from the experience of developed countries, the carbon emission reduction curve is closely related to a country's industrial structure and urbanization rate. Generally speaking, when the proportion of the service industry reaches about 70%, carbon emissions begin to peak and continue to decline; when the urbanization rate reaches about 80%, carbon emissions also begin to peak and decline. However, at present, The proportion of China's service industry is only about 55%, and the urbanization rate is only 64%, which is still some distance away from the inflection point or structural characteristics of carbon emission reduction shown by Western developed countries. Therefore, the challenges and difficulties for China to achieve carbon peaking, including carbon neutrality after carbon peaking, are very huge. Xu Lin also said: "It is worth looking forward to the new breakthrough of green low-carbon technology, especially zero-carbon energy technology related to solar energy utilization efficiency, which can make up for the relatively lagging gap in the transformation of economic and social structure." ”
The goals and paths of the 14th Five-Year Plan
Speaking of the specific double carbon target, Xu Lin introduced that the outline of the national 14th Five-Year Plan proposes to further reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5%, and the carbon emission per unit of GDP by 18%.
He believes that the two goals are related, and the reduction in carbon emissions is higher than the reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP, nearly 5 percentage points more, and these 5 percentage points are the carbon reduction effects of clean energy substitution. The decline in carbon emissions brought about by the substitution of clean energy is greater than the decline in energy consumption per unit of GDP. This means that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, stronger measures should be taken to increase the proportion of green and low-carbon energy, and the goal of the plan is to increase the proportion of non-fossil fuel use to 20%.
Xu Lin also mentioned that the 14th Five-Year Plan also proposes to increase the forest coverage rate to 24.1%, which is also a very ambitious goal. Because at the end of 2020, China's forest coverage rate is about 23.2%, and China will increase its forest coverage rate by nearly 1 percentage point in the next five years. This means increasing the forest cover by about 90,000 square kilometers.
With carbon reduction targets, how should the path of carbon emission reduction go? Xu Lin introduced that from the relevant data, China's carbon emissions account for the highest proportion, the first is the power sector, because China's power sector coal power generation is still the main body, carbon emissions accounted for about 51%. The industrial sector, which accounts for about 28%, is mainly high-carbon sectors such as steel, building materials and petrochemicals. Then there is transportation, accounting for about 9.9%. The fourth should be urban buildings for living, about 5% or so.
Xu Lin pointed out that this emission pattern is mainly due to The high dependence of China's energy industry on coal, the proportion of primary energy coal is currently 57%, although compared with the past has been greatly reduced, but because coal is China's best energy resource endowment, China's current energy production and consumption is still highly dependent on coal. 80 percent of carbon dioxide emissions from China's energy sector come from coal, followed by oil at about 14 percent and natural gas at about 5 percent.
Therefore, "to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption structure, carbon reduction and decarbonization in the industrial sector, electrification and hydrogen dynamics in the field of transportation, the implementation of green and low-carbon buildings in cities and the deep energy conservation of the entire social economy should become the fundamental way out." Xu Lin said.
Strengthen initiatives and build a systematic incentive system
With clear goals and timetables, strong initiatives and policy mechanisms are needed, and Xu Lin put forward seven policy recommendations.
First, increase energy conservation efforts in an all-round way, and promote energy-saving technology innovation and promotion and application. He believes that although China is a country with a low level of energy efficiency, the current energy consumption per unit of GDP is about 30%-40% different from that of more advanced developed countries. Closing this gap is conducive to curbing the increase in total energy consumption and achieving an early peak in energy consumption, and undoubtedly conducive to peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality after peaking.
Xu Lin introduced that in the process of converging the level of per capita energy consumption to developed countries, to achieve convergence with Germany and Japan, the premise is that China's energy efficiency must reach the level of Germany and Japan. In the field of energy saving, we have a lot of space in many ways. Some cases and experience show that in the industrial field, the implementation of digital and intelligent improvement of the production line can improve the energy efficiency level of about 30%; in industrial parks and urban communities, the improvement of the integrated energy service system can also achieve more than 30% energy saving through multi-energy complementarity, peak and valley regulation, and intelligent configuration; in the field of transportation, the construction and improvement of the urban intelligent transportation system can save more than 20% of energy by reducing the mileage and road congestion. This does not include the improvement of energy utilization technology of the means of transport itself; in the field of energy conservation in urban and rural buildings, a large part of the buildings in China are not energy-saving buildings, and if these buildings are energy-saving, or new buildings are designed and built according to the concept of carbon neutrality and low-carbon energy conservation, the energy-saving level of urban buildings can be greatly improved.
Second, we must increase the structural substitution of accelerated green energy. Accelerating green energy substitution is the main way out of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future, and it is also the fundamental requirement for future energy revolution and transformation. Accelerate the replacement of green energy, focusing on advanced technological breakthroughs and wide applications in the fields of photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, biomass energy, inland nuclear power, fuel cells, energy storage, smart grids, and related materials in the field of new energy, and accelerate the construction of a modern green and low-carbon energy system with new energy as the mainstay。
At present, the cost of photovoltaic power generation per kilowatt hour has dropped to more than 2 dimes, and it has fully equipped the ability and level of competition on the Internet, and the cost of wind power generation is also continuing to decline. In the past, people in the power system called wind power and photovoltaics garbage electricity, because wind power and photovoltaics are not only costly but also unstable. With the advancement of power generation technology, energy storage technology and grid technology, especially the continuous improvement of solar energy conversion efficiency, perhaps in the near future, coal power may be considered waste power. Xu Lin mentioned, "The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission clearly proposed that to build a new generation of power system with new energy as the main body, this is not simply a new proposal, but precisely to see the technological progress and development direction in this field, it is worth looking forward to and making efforts for it." In the future, we should focus on the goal of continuously increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy, and accelerate the investment in technology research and development and promotion and application in the field of green energy substitution. ”
Third, the concept of carbon neutrality should be promoted in urban and rural planning and design. He mentioned that in places such as Europe, the United States and Hong Kong, there are some green and low-carbon buildings designed and built in full accordance with the concept of carbon neutrality, but such buildings are rare Chinese mainland. He believes that considering that buildings and their associated energy consumption account for 40% of China's energy consumption, in order to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, "we have no other choice, we must promote carbon neutrality in urban planning and architectural design, including rural planning and construction, renovate existing buildings and promote green and low-carbon cities, communities, villages and buildings in the construction of new projects." Xu Lin said.
Fourth, accelerate the afforestation of the whole society and the construction of forest carbon sinks. The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a target for forest cover, which will increase by about 0.9 percentage points over the next five years, and the construction and improvement of the entire ecosystem may have a carbon sink effect. However, how to make the construction of forest vegetation better and more effective? Xu Lin believes that a better mechanism needs to be established to mobilize and motivate more resources to invest in the improvement of the ecological environment. In the past, we used to volunteer to plant trees every year through our units. This kind of afforestation is more likely to rely on government investment and more of a public financial expenditure. In order to mobilize more social capital to join this rank, it is necessary to explore the establishment of a more effective market-oriented realization mechanism for ecological value, so that the ecological value formed by the ecological input of social investors can obtain corresponding market returns.
Fifth, implement the control of fossil energy consumption and carbon emission quotas, and build an energy use right and carbon trading mechanism。 Since the specific target of carbon peaking is clearly defined, and the peak of carbon emissions is closely related to the peak of energy consumption, especially the peak of fossil energy consumption, it is worth using this as a basis to implement the total amount of fossil energy consumption and carbon emissions control, quota allocation and corresponding equity trading system. This is a system of incentives and constraints that has proven to be effective in the market, and it is worth enabling, promoting and continuously improving in the process of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. China's current carbon trading system is based on voluntary voluntary emission reductions, it is difficult to expand the scale of transactions and have a global impact, it is worthwhile to widely implement mandatory emission reductions and quota allocation and trading systems throughout the country through easy and difficult, pilot breakthroughs, and gradually pushing forward.
Sixth, build a free trade and investment system for technology products and services in the global green and low-carbon field. Developed countries such as Europe and the United States, especially the new government of the United States, have expressed their intention to strengthen international cooperation with China in the field of climate change. What exactly is international cooperation in the field of climate change going to do? This is not just about how to set emission reduction targets, not just about how developing countries and developed countries should assume common and differentiated responsibilities in the field of emission reduction, but also about how to promote carbon emission reduction through the construction of cooperation mechanisms, and remove trade barriers and investment barriers in the field of green and low carbon.
Seventh, build a better green and low-carbon financial and investment environment. How big is the investment needed to be carbon neutral? Recently, different reports, both international and domestic, provided different data. For example, the Goldman Sachs report believes that the world needs about 85 trillion US dollars, some reports in China believe that China needs more than 100 trillion yuan, and some reports believe that it needs tens of trillions of yuan. Regardless of the exact exact data, strong incentives for green and low-carbon investment and better green and low-carbon financial services are essential given that they are so broad and almost all aspects of economic and social development. We should establish better mechanisms and systems to stimulate green impact investment, and develop more specialized agencies engaged in green and low-carbon financial services and green and low-carbon investment.
"In fact, once better institutions and mechanisms are established to promote China's green and low-carbon development and transformation through more effective green finance and green investment, we may find that other macro and structural problems facing economic and social development can also be solved accordingly." Xu Lin stressed.
Editor-in-Charge: Tian Chunling
Proofreader: Ding Xiao
![Xu Lin, chairman of the Sino-US Green Fund: "Green" should become a new driving force for China's future economic development[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)