Text | Two treasurers
I am a producer, you want to do more, to deliver you have to buy goods with me, I do not sell to you, I empty positions to force you to do more. The mind of the boss of Qingshan Holdings was seen through, and he was forced to empty overnight, so that the exchange could only pull the network cable to save itself. This is no longer a question of whether qingshan will fall, but a question of the life and death of the metal industry chain. Behind the forced emptying of Tsingshan Holdings, what is the truth?
The situation in Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of easing, as a major supplier of nickel, Russia is facing punitive economic sanctions from many countries, and the volatility of nickel prices has jumped high, soaring 66% on March 7 and rising 100% at one point on March 8. The London Metal Exchange (LME), which is controlled by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, had to unplug its network cables.
The field is really a massacre, China Qingshan Holdings as a bear, holding 200,000 tons of short orders, and The Swiss Glencore as a bull, staged a decisive short market, because the short orders of Tsingshan Holdings are the hedging operation of Russian orders, and now the Russian side has been unable to deliver.
Is this the truth? Nickel is a very niche metal category, Tsingshan Holdings is a large household of nickel, according to public information, Tsingshan Holdings in 2021 nickel production of 330,000 tons. What is this concept? In 2020, global nickel production will be 2.5 million tons, with the highest output in Indonesia at 760,000 tons, the Philippines with 320,000 tons, Russia with 280,000 tons, and China with only 120,000 tons.
This means that Tsingshan Holdings dominates the world in China, and it also eats the total amount of several major nickel-producing countries such as the United States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Cuba. Of course, according to public accounts, Tsingshan Holdings has received a large number of orders in Russia.
The crux of the matter is that global nickel production is now in a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% in 2020 and a 9.4% reduction in reserves. As Musk applies nickel to Tesla's electric vehicles, the demand for nickel has expanded from stainless steel to new energy vehicles.
A number of domestic new energy vehicle industry chain companies signed strategic cooperation agreements with Tsingshan Holdings. As a small metal, the boss of Tsingshan Holdings has the pricing power of domestic nickel, within five years, the price of nickel has been hovering around 100 yuan, and some people even say that Tsingshan Holdings has been suppressing the market, bitter Qingshan for a long time.
In fact, as early as February, the situation between Russia and Ukraine was already very tense, and US President Biden has been warning Russia to go to war against Ukraine, and international public opinion has reminded Tsingshan Holdings that a large number of short orders are risky. When the price of LME soared and Tsingshan Holdings' short orders were forced to empty by Glencore in Switzerland, the entire capital market was in an uproar.
So why does Tsingshan Holdings have no plan? 200,000 tons of empty orders, if Tsingshan Holdings signed an order with the Russian side, it means to control 70% of Russia's production, Russia will really give the pricing power of nickel to the boss of Tsingshan Holdings?
Russia as a large nickel production and exporter, according to the professional organization Fubao non-ferrous data, Russian nickel production accounts for about 10% of the world's total nickel production, exports are maintained at an average annual rate of about 130,000 tons. In 2021, due to production failures in mining areas and increased export taxes, Russian exports fell sharply, with exports of only 45,400 tons, accounting for only one-third of Russia's total nickel exports in the past. More importantly, Russian nickel exports are mainly Europe, and only a small amount is exported to China, so where does Tsingshan Holdings' so-called order for 200,000 tons of Russian nickel come from?
Make small products into industry leaders, and control their own pricing power. Now Tesla enters the market, the market has changed, Tsingshan Holdings through short-selling hedging operations have no problem, because according to China's nickel production, Tsingshan Holdings has no opponent in The country, and enterprises in the industrial chain can only cooperate with him. Those who are doing long internationally, you have to fight with me short, where do you buy goods? I Tsingshan Holdings is the manufacturer, so play dead you long.
Is it really because Russia cannot deliver now, giving international capital the opportunity to force Aoyama Holdings to empty? So far, Tsingshan Holdings has no evidence to prove that it has won more than 70% of Russia's nickel orders, so russia's so-called delivery is only a hypothesis. So behind the explosion of the nickel short position of Qingshan Holdings, is it a mismatch? Or naked shorting?
Some economists are shaking their wits, saying that Qingshan Holdings can not admit compensation, because Russia is fighting, force majeure factors. If the 200,000-ton short order of Qingshan Holdings is really a Russian order, I am afraid that Qingshan Holdings has already thrown it out, and it is still used to talk to the air forcers?
One thing is certain, LME pulled out the network line is not because of Tsingshan Holdings to blow up, because the nickel short led to the loss of liquidity in the market, all nickel shorts triggered the margin mechanism, all were difficult to close the position, and then triggered all varieties of positions to be liquidated.
Is LME controlled by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, is it true that he will pull the network cable for a Chinese company? No, the LME is self-help, because once all the bears are liquidated, it means that all the brokerage companies are all bankrupt, and who gives the money the bulls make? No one gives, then the LME collapses, and the entire metal industry chain collapses.
Demon nickel gambling, Qingshan Holdings' short orders under the pressure of short, coupled with leverage, I am afraid that when the 200,000 tons of empty orders burst, the profits will be lost in a few years. This is just the beginning, and the influence of partners in the industrial chain has just begun.
Due to the high proportion of nickel ore in new energy vehicles, other lithium ore raw materials should be carefully sniped by international capital, because a large number of resources are delivered abroad. China's new energy and real industries, if they are not careful, will be harvested by international capital. In the face of demon nickel gambling, perhaps, the people will say that they are all bare-ass grinding, famous and famous!