In 2021, the traditional business education market in the projection industry will continue to shrink. Although the engineering market maintains high growth, its application particularity determines that engineering projection is never a quantitative and large-scale field. This determines that the sales target of any projection brand in the domestic market must pay tribute to the "home": only a strong home can have high total sales.
In this regard, Dapingjun feels that it is too early to discuss the culmination of the domestic market demand for home projection. The demand for more than 5 million home projections in 2021 is still a "small number" compared with large-screen TVs, and low-end products such as monolithic LCDs account for nearly half, and its alternative impact on color TVs can be ignored. The real high-quality enjoyment of home investment in the home large-screen audio-visual circle of the "foothold" is only "the beginning".
This determines that the rapid growth of the home investment market will inevitably be sustainable for a long time. At the same time, the demand for low-quality products to high-quality products will continue to be transformed. This determines that in the context of the total scale and huge increment, home investment does not mean that the industry market structure is "ironclad", and enterprises can "share interests and rise on average". In fact, DaPingjun believes that "differentiation" is the more important "law" of the current home investment circle in addition to "large increment".
From the product feature side, the upgrade is "obvious"
For the home investment market of more than 5 million in 2021, Dapingjun summarized a rough data analysis - that is, the basic judgment of the changes in the high-end market, as follows:
In 2021, the demand for traditional home theater models has fallen from about 150,000 units in 2019 to about 50,000 units in 2021; however, laser TV, as an alternative to home theater quality consumption, has a market size of more than 280,000 units in 2021, a significant increase from 190,000 units in 2020. In particular, combined with the accelerated launch of LED short-throw projection and laser short-throw micro-projection products, the sales growth rate of ultra-short-throw home investment products in 2021 should be more than 70-80%.
Another angle of data, it is estimated that in 2021, the sales volume of laser projectors in mainland China will exceed 600,000 units, of which in addition to nearly 100,000 units in the engineering market, 280,000 laser TVs+, and more than 100,000 + in the business education market, the laser intelligent micro-investment market also has a market size of 80,000 to 90,000 units. Laser micro-investment as a new incremental point in 2021, but also as a new choice for home investment, in 2021 10 months (considering that the spring market of this type of product has not yet been listed in large quantities) sales of close to 100,000 units, which is an explosive increase, but also the high-end quality home investment product demand strong performance (laser micro-investment generally focus on highlighting, or other special function design).
On the other hand, according to the statistics of LOTTO Technology (RUNTO), in the sales of smart projections without laser TVs in the mainland region in 2021, the share of 2K lumens or more reached 11.8%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points over the same period last year, an increase of more than 80%. Over the same period, the share of 4K resolution was only 1.1%, but it increased by 0.6 percentage points over 2020 – the total amount, although small, but an increase of more than 100%.
That is, although the demand for traditional home theater projection models in China will decline by nearly half in 2021, in other high-end models, the "upward" demand upgrade trend of home investment is obvious. The growth rate of concept products including short focus, laser, high brightness, high resolution and so on far exceeds the "overall growth" of "china's intelligent projection market (excluding laser TV) sales reached 4.803 million units in 2021, an increase of 29.0% year-on-year, and market sales reached 11.61 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2%; in 2021, domestic laser TV sales reached 280,000 units, an increase of 31.9% year-on-year, and sales of 4.7 billion yuan, an increase of 27.7% year-on-year" and other "overall growth".
That is to say, although the proportion of single-chip LCD models and low experience models below 500 brightness is still more than half, the high-quality home investment products represented by 50,000 home theater models, 280,000 laser TVs, and 670,000 intelligent micro-investment units above 1500 lumens will exceed 1 million units in 2021. Among them, in addition to the decline in demand for traditional home theater models, laser TV sales increased by 31.9%, intelligent micro-investment above 1500 lumens increased by 42%, and jointly promoted the high-quality home investment market to reach the million unit mark for the first time in 2021.
Dapingjun believes that although the high-end and low-end products in the home investment circle are growing, the profits and soft power accumulation brought by different types of products to the brand are completely different. Especially after the total number of high-end products exceeds one million units, the scale effect formed by it will inevitably greatly enhance the "market discourse power" of the brand supply of products with DLP technology and high-brightness light source and ultra-short throw application as the main features, which in turn will lead to further differentiation of the brand pattern and strength.
The increase in the proportion of high-end home investment and high-experience home investment in the household circle will have a historic impact on improving the average price, gross profit and profit level of the industry, increasing the sales of enterprise brands, consolidating the ability and willingness of enterprises to continue to invest in research and development, and increasing the market share and dominance of head brand sales data: According to the increase in high-quality home investment in 2021, the market size of high-quality home investment is expected to exceed 2 million units within two years, and the higher economic value of high-quality products will significantly change the "financial ecology" of the head home investment brand.
In particular, LED ultra-short throw projection, three-color laser TV, laser micro-projection products, more than 2000+ brightness laser and LED micro-projection products, 3LCD micro-projection products are in the early stage of market development, the first "10-18 months" of large-scale listing, its market volume can not be fully exerted in the background, in 2021, the high-end home investment market can "stride forward to a million steps", the future, with the enhancement of the supply of these high-end products, the decline in cost, The scale of the high-end home investment market will be more promising, and the friendliness of the home investment market to the leading brands of head technology will be strengthened.
From the perspective of the brand camp, differentiation "accelerates"
The structural adjustment of different subdivision product lines, the structural adjustment of different technical product lines, especially the increasing recognition of high-end products, will inevitably mean that the brand camp of "technical strength and market route are not the same" has diverged.
In the 2021 home investment market pattern, Daping Jun noticed that "one of the biggest changed brands" may be Epson. From the spring of 2021, Epson and Tencent Video cooperated to comprehensively promote the upgrading of the domestic home investment market line, and it was only eight months by the end of the year. However, in the past 8 months, Epson 3LCD smart projection sales have squeezed into the top ten of the total scale of more than 2.11 million LCD smart projection list - considering that Epson products are 5000 yuan price point, traditional single-chip LCD projection is 500-1500 yuan price point, Epson This achievement is very rare.
Industry analysis believes that the sales volume of 60,000 to 70,000 units in 8 months, the amount of energy shown by Epson 3LCD intelligent projection in 2021, equivalent to annualization, has reached the level of 100,000 units. Combined with the sales of Epson laser TV, this allows Epson to resist the overall shrinkage of the traditional home theater projection plate in 2020-2021 - even, the big screen Jun believes that in this round of traditional home theater projector market shrinkage, Epson is almost a traditional projection giant, and the only brand that can make up for the decline in sales of traditional home theater projection through new home investment products, or will be surpassed.
Dapingjun believes that from 2020 to 2021, the market size of traditional home theater projection will shrink from 150,000 to 50,000, which will greatly stimulate and change the market position of all traditional projection brand "home investment" plates. Many previous heavyweight home investment traditional projection brands are likely to become "insignificant" in the future. Unless these brands dare to embrace new categories such as smart projection, micro-projection, and laser TVs. In this regard, the strategic impact of home investment on Japanese and Taiwanese brands will be historic.
What to win back, the traditional projection brand in 2019 and before the full dominance of the 3000-8000 yuan gear mercury lamp home theater projection market, this is the traditional projection brand must answer! In the market above 10,000 yuan, the competition between traditional home theater projection and smart laser TV and tri-color laser TV will also be in full swing. "At present, the 3000-8000 yuan mercury lamp home theater projection market is fully competitive with high-brightness LED and laser micro-projection, ultra-short-throw micro-projection, and laser TV base-price products; the convenience of laser TVs in the more high-end 10,000-yuan market is also very attractive."
Not only are traditional projection brands facing great changes in the "market situation", but the low-end projection brands of monolithic LCD in 2021 are not having a good time. Dapingjun noted that the CR4 brands in the LCD market in 2021 are Micro Shadow, Sky Cannon, Ruishida, and Ruigel, with a total share of 43.5%, a sharp decrease of 17.3 percentage points over the same period in 2020. In contrast, Xiaoming, who entered the market in mid-2021, and Epson, which began to exert strength in the domestic home investment ecology in 2021, ranked ninth and tenth in the LCD intelligent projection market - that is, the top ten brands of LCD, and replaced two in 2021.
It can be seen that the brand loyalty of monolithic LCD projection is really not flattering. In this product circle, with the intelligent development of products, its cost rise and consumption upgrading trend are obvious. It has formed a model circle of more than 1,000 yuan and a model circle of less than 1,000 yuan, two completely different levels of consumption. Among them, Xiaoming is a typical single-chip LCD projection brand with quality products of more than 1,000 yuan, and its market share has grown rapidly, indicating that the trend of industry demand differentiation is extremely clear.
Of course, as the head of the domestic DLP technology investment enterprise, it is not without pressure. For example, Under the background of maintaining the domestic and global leadership of laser TV, the iterative advantage of product technology innovation, and the global debut of curved surfaces and 8K products, Hisense is also developing intelligent laser micro-projection products to enter the demand circle of non-laser TV forms. At the same time, the intelligent DLP micro-investment brother, but also the domestic intelligent projection brother, home investment sales of the first pole meter, the launch of a new three-color laser TV products in early 2022, after 3 years in 2022 to increase the layout of laser TV lines, ready to meet the laser TV products "the future market demand scale impact million units" of the major incremental time point.
In the view of Daping Jun, no matter what type of brand the home investment circle is, whether it is a market-leading or backward, technologically advanced or copycat brand, there are "different but similar existential crises". The difference is because their starting point is different, such as Sony projection's home investment market basis is high-end home theater, which makes it almost unable to cope with the popular market demand; while Xiaoming's innovation chooses the most popular blockbuster LCD products to improve quality and play the upgrade battle of entry-level products. Similarly, it is because the demand for home investment is huge and the growth rate is huge, especially the trend of demand increasingly developing in the direction of quality is clear.
With their different bases and in response to the same market trends, the differentiation between brands is more interesting than the differentiation of different types of products! Daping Jun feels that how to better expand the product line of home investment is not only a mandatory question, but also likely different brands to have different answers: differentiation in the process of progress, progress in differentiation, will be the general trend of the home investment industry in recent years. And whether the final winners will have the same destination or have their own hills, they still need more practice and time to give answers.