The lack of infrastructure, rather than capacity, could hurt the continent's plans to supply gas to Europe in place of Russia.
On February 22, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced at a press conference that the European superpower had halted the approval of the Russian-owned Nord Stream 2 after Russian President Vladimir Putin officially sent troops to eastern Ukraine.
Nord Stream 2 Moscow-backed energy company Gazprom owns a $11 billion gas pipeline project that runs from western Siberia to Germany. The project was built to ensure a sustainable energy distribution across the EUROPEAN Union, especially as gas prices in Europe reach record highs – more than a third of Europe's gas comes from Russia.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues and european gas prices soar, Moscow is likely to shut down gas supplies. Gas supplies are widely seen as part of Putin's obsession with Ukraine as part of the leverage on the West.
Until then, European countries will struggle to find emergency supply networks in the coming weeks. In fact, sources say the U.S. is already in talks with Qatar over supplying natural gas to the European Union as a key alternative to Russia.
However, at the Forum of Natural Gas Exporters last week, the European Union said it would not be able to provide Europe with a large amount of alternative gas if sanctions were imposed on Russia. They stressed the need for significant investment in gas infrastructure, as well as long-term contracts, to guarantee a large supply in Europe.
Tanzanian President Samiya Suluhu Hassan speaks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland
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That has led to a debate over whether African countries with the world's deepest natural gas reserves can step in to fill the gap — Russia typically supplies Europe with 150 billion to 190 billion cubic meters of gas demand a year.
Recently, Tanzanian President Samiya Suluhu Hassan said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be an opportunity for gas sales as the East African country struggles to secure new energy markets outside Africa. "Whether it's Africa, Europe or the Americas, we're looking for markets," Hassan said. ”。“ Fortunately, we are working with companies in Europe. ”
Tanzania has the sixth largest natural gas reserves in Africa – an estimated 57 trillion cubic feet (1.6 billion cubic meters) of natural gas reserves. Tanzania says it has been working with Shell to harness its vast offshore gas resources and export to Europe and elsewhere.
Africa's largest natural gas producer has similar plans. Nigeria's Junior Petroleum Minister, Timip Silva, told me at the Natural Gas Exporters Forum in Doha, "We want to build a pipeline, a pipeline across the Sahara, to carry our natural gas to Algeria and then to Europe." ”
Nigeria recently signed memorandums of understanding with Algeria and the Republic of Niger, as well as the construction of a trans-Saharan gas pipeline, a 614-kilometer (381.5-mile) long gas pipeline that starts in northern Nigeria.
There is no official word as to when the pipeline, first discussed in the 1970s, will be completed, but it will cross northern Nigeria into Niger and Algeria, eventually connecting Europe.
However, there are concerns about whether African countries can become an appropriate stopgap measure for natural gas as Europe responds to Russian military attacks on its own or long-term suppliers.
Lack of infrastructure
Experts say the historic lack of investment in natural gas infrastructure has hampered the energy industry in sub-Saharan Africa, unlike North Africa.
For example, the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline in Algeria, Africa's largest gas exporter, transports natural gas to Spain and Portugal via Morocco, and the Medgarz pipeline directly connects Algeria and Spain.
Experts estimate that Algeria exported 9 billion cubic feet (255 million cubic meters) of natural gas to Spain in 2020, and before that, Algeria exported 17 billion cubic feet (481 million cubic meters) of natural gas to Spain annually. The decline was due to a decline in gas production due to a breakdown in relations with Morocco; last October, Algeria announced it would immediately begin exporting gas directly to Spain.
"It is important to note that (North Africa) Africa (before the Ukraine crisis) has established an established gas export market with Europe," said Linda Mabhena-Olagunju, oil and gas lawyer and CEO of DLO Energy Resources Group, an independent power producer in Johannesburg. "(Algeria) The increase in capacity of the Medgaz pipeline is also expected to increase exports to Europe."
But many African countries with vast natural gas reserves also struggle to attract investment in gas infrastructure projects to supply the European market.
With 13.5 trillion cubic feet (382 billion cubic meters) of proven natural gas reserves, Angola has seen a sharp decline in oil and gas production over the past five years due to technical and operational issues, as well as a lack of upstream investment and incentives.
In 2020, the government of Mohammed Buhari announced the "Natural Gas Decade," an initiative in Nigeria that aims to prioritize the gas industry and capitalize on opportunities in the global transition to cleaner fuels.
As part of the drive, it began construction of the 614-kilometer,500-dollar Agio kuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline. Most of the money comes from loans from Chinese banks.
Still, as in many other African countries, significant investment is needed to build cross-regional and intercontinental pipelines in order to open up the passage to Europe. They all need a lot of capital.
Nigeria hopes that the new industry legislation it signed last August will provide a new framework to reduce waste and corruption in the oil sector, reshape host community relationships and ultimately realize investments.
"Nigeria is not currently the preferred investment destination for the oil and gas industry," said Joe Nwawue, former chairman of the Institute of Petroleum Engineers of Nigeria and former adviser to junior petroleum ministers. "That's why we're pushing for competitive fiscal arrangements in the bill."
"In addition, to address infrastructure challenges, we need to open up the sector to private capital," he said. ”。“ Our current oligopoly is not enough because the Nigerian National Oil Corporation lacks the capital to build the infrastructure we need. ”
Mabhena-Olagunju told Al Jazeera that the use of ships to transport LNG directly across the sea could also put sub-Saharan African countries in the best position to become competitive producers and exporters.
Security of supply
Experts say African countries must first address other existential issues in order to become readily available alternatives for Europe in emergencies.
Mozambique has about 100 trillion cubic feet (2.8 trillion cubic meters) of proven natural gas reserves, or about 1% of the world's total reserves. But the ongoing armed uprising in the northern Province of Cape Delgado in Mozambique, a gas-rich region bordering Tanzania, has blocked the planned $50 billion in activity project.
Elsewhere, waves of security threats from militant groups have affected oil and gas exploration in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta.
Mabhena-Olagunju said: "As a reliable producer and exporter of LNG, the key factor that Africa still faces challenges is security of supply. ”。“ While the discovery of LNG in Mozambique is a great one, it must also be recognized that insecurity leads to delays and instability in supply. (Source: The Paper)