(Translator's note: This article is written by FiveThirtyEight journalist Andres Waters, and the content does not represent the translator's views.) The data in this article is as of March 4, 2022 Beijing time)
Ja-Morant didn't spend much time proving he was capable of being unique in the NBA. Obviously, when he was a rookie, he proved his ability to be the cornerstone of the team. He's good enough to deserve the Memphis Grizzlies rebuilding based on his style of play. Since then, Morant has continued his excellent performance in his rookie years. Although FiveThirtyEight predicted the Grizzlies to make the playoffs only 28 percent earlier that season, Morant managed to lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Today, third-year Morant's performances are soaring in all aspects and continue to take the league by storm, with one of the best examples being the 46 and 52 points he's scored in his last two back-to-back games. Morant's name has steadily moved into the discussion about the league's MVP candidate, and he wasn't among the 12 most likely players to win the award given by DraftKings Sportsbook at the start of the season (Morant currently ranks fourth in the probability of winning an MVP). He also has a chance to lead the Grizzlies to 56 wins, which will tie the team's record for the highest win in a single season.
Morant is growing fast in Rose's footsteps
It's hard to predict that Morant will rise to such heights this season, and he is following in the footsteps of another great defender who has reached superstar status in his third year: Derrick Rose.
Based on long-term research into basketball history, our 2021-22 NBA player prediction model provides some clues to Morant's potential developments. Before the season began, the model deduced from the performance of the past two seasons that the player most comparable to Morant was Rose. Rose became the youngest Most Valuable Player in league history in his third season (2010-11). Today, 11 years later, the Grizzlies guard has the ability to achieve the same feat — at the same age (22).
Like the Chicago Bulls did around Rose when he became a superstar, the Grizzlies have also relied heavily on their star players this season. Among players averaging more than 25 minutes per game, Morant is the sixth most used (32.9%), surpassing a group of the league's most famous stars, including Mitchell, Tatum, Durant, james, etc.
Morant's breakthrough dealt a lot of damage to the opponent
Morant has become an even more formidable scorer. Last season, Morant played far beyond his stature (6'3, 174 pounds), and he attacked the basket with an aggressive style of play and finished at a high level. This season, he's still constantly penetrating the defense, and his offense has even become more frequent (and more effective).
According to Second Spectrum, Morant ranks third among all players with an average of 21.1 breakouts per game, trailing only Alexander (24.5) and Doncic (22.2), up from his 19.5 breakouts per game in his second year. And, his breakouts have become more efficient, with effective shooting percentages and an average of 52.7 percent and 1.033 points per break, respectively, than the 51.8 percent and 0.985 points in the 2020-21 season. Thanks to the time he spends attacking the basket, as well as the higher scoring efficiency, Morante currently leads the league in paint points per game (16.8 points). By the end of the season, he is expected to be one of only three top five point guards in the paint since the 2000-01 season (the other two being Westbrook in 2019-20 and Ben Simmons in 2017-18). He also has the potential to become the first point guard to rank first in the league in paint scoring since the NBA recorded 1996-97.
The NBA breaks through the rankings per game, and scores created as scorers and assists in breakouts, respectively
(The sample is players with at least 100 breakthroughs in the 2021-22 season, and the data source is Second Spectrum)
Like Rose in his MVP season, Morant excelled at attacking the basket and finding creative ways to end the game. Whether it's a breakthrough with a seemingly impossible layup or a powerful dunk, it's easy to see the similarities between the two defenders at the same stage of their respective careers.
Both Morant and Pinnacle Rose have the ability to make difficult layups under the basket, but his similar characteristics to Rose on the basket are even more impressive. According to Second Spectrum, Morant has averaged 1.1 dunks per game this season, second among all defenders, while he is tied for fifth in the league with 54 total dunks. Like Rose in the MVP season, the young star's ability to fly is one of the biggest highlights in the league this year.
In addition to improved scoring ability in the paint, Morant has also become more efficient in shooting this season. The first-time All-Star Game star has improved in both shooting percentage and scoring per game. Following a 19.1 per game shooting percentage of 44.9 percent last season, he has increased his points per game and 49.8 percent shooting percentage to 27.6 points per game and 49.8 percent, respectively. Currently, Morant is the seventh-highest average in the league in terms of points per game, and last year he was outside the top fifty. He's improved his marksmanship, shooting 34.4 percent from three-point range this season, up from 30.3 percent last season.
If this level of offensive output is maintained, Morant will be one of the strongest contenders for MVP by the end of the season. Since 2001, only three point guards have been in the top five in the MVP polls in at least one of their first three seasons; Morant has the opportunity to join Rose, Doncic and Chris Paul. If he can really follow in Rose's footsteps — as history predicts, Morant will be the third player to earn an MVP before the age of 23.
(Original: Andres Waters)
(Translator: Yongxin)