Political influence
For the world political landscape, although Russia did not quickly defeat the Ukrainian government's will to resist, it still has a profound impact on the current world.
World War I lifted Russia from the possibility of being NATO's second Blue Program
For Russia, in addition to solving the Ukrainian problem at once, I believe that Russia wants to engage in a military demonstration. Through this display, it shows Russia's determination to expand NATO's eastward expansion into jade and not for the whole thing, and it is even more hoped that by showing NATO's weakness, it will achieve the effect of punching open. Of course, it would be better to shake the foundations of NATO's existence. However, in this demonstration of force, due to the light enemy of the Russian army and its own lack of ability, the achievements of the ten years of military reform did not make the core countries of NATO jealous, but in response, Germany began to expand its army, and France may also further expand its army. Although Fade may not have performed as well as Russia in this level of war, the implications of NATO's deterrence have been reduced a lot with the stagnation of Russian operations. Moreover, Russia's overseas assets have been repeatedly robbed by European and American countries, and Russia's economy may encounter serious problems in the short term. And where Russia-Ukraine relations will go in the future will depend on how Russia fights the next war. The possibility of the Russians trying to reduce costs and hold Ukraine under control without vendetta has vanished with the pause of the Kharkov offensive.
Putin grew much older after the start of the war
For European countries, this event marks the complete rupture of Russian-European relations, and Europe's energy problems cannot be solved. This can be seen in Europe's energy sector, which has refused to sanction Russia. And because of the long-term wen tian wu xi and the abolition of weapons, Europe was afraid of Russia's military strength before. But as a result of Russia's failure in military speculation this time, Europe's long-standing fears about Russia's demonization propaganda have been largely offset. More people in Europe may then choose to be tough on Russia, or under U.S. pressure. The EU's eastern border will be the first de facto new Cold War border. The rise of the EU's right will be unstoppable, but perhaps the first problem to be solved is actually the problem of refugees at home. And that could be a hallmark event for the EU's next decade of turmoil.
Le Pen has a high probability of winning
For the United States, it is clear this time that it is out of play. The perfect playbook for the United States was that Russia was trapped by a virtual crisis created by Ukraine's joining nato agenda, constantly increasing its troops, but not launching an all-out attack on Ukraine. European funds returned to the United States due to safe-haven demand, reducing the pressure on interest rate hikes. At the same time, the increased demand for U.S. security in European countries has forced the purchase of U.S. nuclear umbrellas and high-priced resources to provide more cushions for stock and bond markets. But the United States underestimated Russia's determination to maintain a secure border, so much so that before the war, the United States urgently announced that it would not seek to send troops to Ukraine. Because if it sends troops to Ukraine, the United States will have a double kill under the threat of nuclear bombs. After all, as the forefront of the new Cold War, if the United States does not choose to increase its troops in Europe after the war, the significance of NATO's existence will be gone. But in the context of China in East Asia and Iran in the Middle East, if you choose to increase your weight in Europe, the United States will have huge problems in geopolitical occasions other than Europe. And what's even funnier is that because Indian netizens support Russia, India refuses to sanction Russia, and the United States is considering sanctioning India. This is actually directly digging out half of the Indo-Pacific strategy. Of course, sanctions may not go down, and even if sanctions undermine the Indo-Pacific strategy, they will not be as big as the problem of the westward shift of the US strategic center, but this side shows that the United States is no longer able to maintain an advantage or balance of power in all areas except the region. This is excellent news for China. And some of the financial flows from the war went to China, not all of them to the United States, which the United States may not have thought of. Overall, russia's battle could serve as a signpost marking the end of the post-Cold War era of the alliance system led by the United States as a unipolar hegemon.
The growth rate of the United States in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be zero, and the United States is about to enter the era of stagflation