Image source @ Visual China
Text | Business Data Pie, author | Lu Yingxi and Xie Yijing, editors | Wen Bin
It's no longer news that new consumption is cold.
From the beginning of the founder of Chayan Yueshi personally going down to fight with employees at the end of last year, to the recent Haidilao forecast of a loss of 3.8 billion, the new consumer industry has crossed a year of turmoil.
During this time, Nai Xue closed the store one after another, Wen Heyou was exposed to the department being laid off by more than 60%, and the Mo Mo Dim Sum Bureau was laid off by 40%... In addition, some media have counted some of the catering brands that have died and closed in 2021, and new consumer star brands such as sipping and feeding, new elements, and Lele tea are all listed.
On the other hand, the investment and financing events in the new consumer industry have also cooled down rapidly during this period.
According to incomplete statistics from IT Orange, in January this year, there were 65 financing incidents for new consumer brands in China, down 27% from 89 in December 2021. However, this is a 25% year-on-year increase from 52 in January 2021.
Obviously, after completing the staking in the traffic dividend period, the new consumption track has also begun to enter a new stage. It's just that this new stage, whether it is the cold winter of the industry or the rational adjustment, may take longer to answer.
But as the saying goes, the Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet, before the trend is still unclear, the business data faction and four new consumption front-line practitioners from different industries chatted, from their personal experience, may be able to see the real situation of new consumption now.
01 Say goodbye to the high-end? Nai Xue new product, a cup as long as 9 pieces
Liang Wei, 21 years old, Nai Xue's tea employee
"These days the business is more deserted, the daily turnover is about 20,000 yuan, compared to last year, it is not much worse." Liang Wei, who has worked at a store in Naixue for more than 7 months, said: "There is not much queuing now, and there are not many customers in the store. ”
In addition to the changes in passenger flow, whether it is in the unit price of the customer in the report or in the time of the cashier rotation, Liang Wei can perceive that the customer's spending power has been greatly reduced. "Now more customers will choose low-priced drinks."
In Liang Wei's view, this situation, one is because of the impact of the environment in the past two years, the overall level of customer consumption is declining; on the other hand, because low-priced products have hot and cold to choose from, and the cost performance is higher.
"It may be that we have seen this consumer trend, and recently we have also launched a lot of low-priced products, such as the newly launched Easy Series, which only needs 9 yuan at the lowest price." It can be said that among the many Naixue drinks with an average price of 25 yuan, the 9 yuan easy golden peony can be regarded as a clear stream.
Of course, it's not just Nai Xue, but also Xi Tea, which is the representative of the new tea drink like Nai Xue, has also begun to reduce its price. On February 24, Heytea announced the completion of a comprehensive product price adjustment since January this year, and its drinks have bid farewell to 30 yuan. In Liang Wei's view, the relaxed series launched by Nai Xue this time also has the meaning of responding to enhance competition.
Liang Wei told the business data faction that in addition to Pushing low-priced drinks recently, The research and development direction of new products is also approaching low-cost products. "The Easy Series has successively launched a variety of low-priced drinks such as Easy Golden Peony, Easy Cheese Golden Peony, and Easy Grapefruit for consumers to choose from."
But whether this can become a new way for Nesher to break the game is still difficult to say.
Asked about the layoffs in the store, Liang Wei gave a negative answer. "We have not encountered layoffs in our store, but because the business is not as good as before, the recruitment is part-time," she admitted, in order to reduce labor costs, the staff in the store are basically full-time. Although there have been new stores ready to open in recent times, and there has been a shortage of manpower in the store after the staff transfer, the recruitment is still only part-time, because part-time work is 17.5 yuan an hour, which is "cheaper" than full-time.
At present, in Naixue, Liang Wei earns about 4,000 yuan a month; the system schedules two days a week, works nine hours a day, and works night shifts until 12:00 a.m. "Everyone is just a hit worker," Liang Wei, who worked the night shift, was tired and helpless between words, "Part-time work is very hard, but there is no way, and now the money earned can maintain a basic life." ”
02 Hot pot restaurant, while reducing wages, while recruiting people
Fu Qiang, 30 years old, is the owner of a hot pot restaurant with ingredients
"Last year the entire store lost 150,000 yuan." Fu Qiang, the owner of the spicy old hot pot in Sanhu, told the business data faction.
The loss of the hot pot restaurant is actually not surprising. As the "big brother" of the hot pot circuit, Haidilao closed more than 300 stores in 2021. On the morning of February 21, Haidilao issued a profit warning, saying that it expected a net loss of 3.8 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan in 2021, which was the first annual loss of Haidilao in 28 years.
The "head" hot pot brand is not easy, and the small hot pot shop is even more difficult.
For his own store, Fu Qiang believes that there are many reasons for the loss, "Peer competition is fierce, Chengdu is full of hot pot restaurants, all rolled in, and the price of raw materials is also rising." ”
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in December 2021, the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in the 286 wholesale markets of the country was 5.12/kg, an increase of 37.1% year-on-year, and the price of beef was far higher than the previous price.
In order to retain old customers, when the price of raw materials increased, Fu Qiang did not raise the price of dishes in the store. "The price of raw materials is rising, but the consumption of customers in their mouths has not changed." The average price of meat dishes is 22 yuan, vegetarian dishes are 5 yuan, although the price of this menu is already on the verge of loss, but there are still many customers who report that the price is too high.
Fu Qiang told the business data faction that when the business was good, the guests had to queue for more than half an hour during the peak period of the meal, and now the number of guests who come to the store to eat has decreased a lot, and there are only seventy or eighty per day, and there is basically no need to queue. "The daily turnover of the opening year of 2022 is 7,000 to 8,000 yuan, which is a little higher than last year in general, although it is not much, but it is always a good start." However, in the past two days, Chengdu has been affected by the epidemic, and the turnover of the store has plummeted.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the business in the store is no better than before, and the frequency and price of customer consumption are decreasing, "before it may be twice a week, now it may be once every two weeks." ”
The downturn in consumption is not only reflected in the frequency, but also the customer will pay more attention to the price when ordering, and the unit price of the customer is gradually declining. Originally, guests would hardly look at the price when ordering, and now they will be more cautious, and the consumption of popular meat dishes such as hairy belly and shrimp slip will be reduced in quantity, and vegetarian dishes will not change much.
At the same time, the reduction of passenger flow also brings problems to the management of the store. In addition to daily wear and tear, the store's expenditure is mainly concentrated on labor wages, rent, water and electricity, property, and raw materials. Labor wages, raw materials and rents are the "big heads" of this.
In order to control operating costs, when many internet red hot pot restaurants in Chengdu spent a lot of money on platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou, Sanhu you expected to cut investment in advertising, while using the shift system to reduce the working hours of employees, and when scheduling, the original 30-day shift a month was reduced to 20 days.
"It can be said that it is a salary cut in disguise."
But what is interesting is that when Ming ming was reducing wages in disguise, there were still job notices posted on the door of Fu Qiang's hot pot restaurant, writing about the demand for multiple positions such as waiters, cooks, and dishwashers in the front office.
According to Fu Qiang, it is difficult to recruit people in the store now, the salary competitiveness is insufficient, if there are fewer customers, several people in the store can also be busy; but the customers are slightly more than a few tables of manpower is obviously not enough. Fu Qiang is the boss, but at the same time he is also doing the work of the staff, constantly shuttling between the front hall and the back kitchen.
On the one hand, it is a salary cut to control costs, and on the other hand, it is a shortage of manpower in the peak period that urgently needs to be recruited, which seems contradictory, but it is the current situation of many hot pot restaurants.
At the end of the interview, Fu Qiang told us that although it is not easy to operate now, the store is still ready to be renovated and upgraded recently. Fu Qiang's statement is that "after all, we can't be lazy when others are afraid", and the renovation may be able to attract more guests.
03 If it is not the epidemic, low-cost milk tea can sell better
Li Yanjun, 23 years old, is an employee of Chen Duoduo's milk tea shop
From noon to night, busyness is the norm for Li Yanjun. "When business is good, you can sell 300 cups of milk tea a day. But under normal circumstances, there are more than a hundred cups a day, and 3,000 to 4,000 cups a month. Li Yanjun told the business data faction that online orders currently account for more than half.
"Overall, business is not much different from last year, but the intermittent epidemic has really had an impact on business." Li Yanjun said that when there is an epidemic, nearby schools will be closed management, and offline passenger flow will plummet. But in recent times, there will be more online orders, but it is certainly not as good as the offline passenger flow. ”
"Recently, the sales volume of our store is only about 1800, which is much worse than normal, but it is higher than the sales volume of more than 1600 during the epidemic last year." Li Yanjun said.
Chen Duoduo, where Li Yanjun works, is a local milk tea brand in Sichuan, and as early as 2017, the number of stores in Sichuan exceeded 100. At the end of 2019, the number of Chen Duoduo's stores nationwide exceeded 300, but from 300 to 400, Chen Duoduo took two years.
For the slowdown in the growth of her own stores, Li Yanjun told us, "There are indeed a small number of stores that have closed their doors due to the epidemic. But the main reason is that the current conditions for joining are much stricter than before. ”
"In the past, as long as the funds were in place and the documents were complete, the franchise could be implemented quickly; now the franchise from site selection, to decoration, to training and equipment procurement, each step requires a very strict evaluation, sometimes a set of processes down, the opening of the new store takes several months."
Li Yanjun told us that the reason why Chen Duoduo tightened the franchise policy is mainly because of the instability of store operations caused by the epidemic. For example, their stores, when there is no epidemic, the epidemic will be cut off, and now the epidemic is repeated, and the new stores cannot withstand the toss, so all aspects of the site selection are very important, and the company also intends to strictly control.
"The threshold for joining has become higher, and not everyone can bear the risks caused by the epidemic, so the number of new stores has become less in recent years." Li Yanjun said his guess: "Probably to hedge off this part of the risk, now Chen Duoduo's franchise fee is 50% discount, and from next month onwards, there will be a one-year discount on management fees, publicity fees, design fees, and training fees on the basis of a 50% discount." ”
In addition to working joining, Chen Duoduo also spent his energy on the research and development of new products. For example, Li Yanjun told us that in recent times, Chen Duoduo has circled many fans by "selling tofu", and the signature "Osmanthus Stuffed Tofu" drink has sold more than 200,000 cups a month.
Li Yanjun said that adding tofu to the drink is our home's original and our characteristic. Whether it was or is, online or offline, tofu drinks have always been the best-selling products in their stores, selling at least 800 cups a month.
Li Yanjun believes that the reason why Chen Duoduo will be welcomed by customers is not only because of his product innovation, but also because "our drinks are taking the route of being close to the people, and people of any income class can afford it." "From the menu, we can also see that the per capita consumption of Chen Duoduo Milk Tea Shop is not high, and the price range of most drinks is within 10-15 yuan."
In connection with the previously mentioned price reduction of Xi tea, Nesher began to try low-priced products and we will find that although the high-end milk tea market has begun to pre-cool, a cup of affordable milk tea may still become a consumer product that everyone chooses every day.
04 I opened my own shop to know that a cup of coffee can't earn 5 yuan
Liu Wang, 24 years old, joined the entrepreneur of the coffee shop
"I didn't think about working for others so much before, but now after I open my own shop, I wake up to more than 10,000 rents every day, and I have to count the wages of employees in the future, and the pressure will come up at once."
Liu Wang, a new entrepreneur in the coffee industry, has only been open for just one month since his new store opened. But before that, Liu Wang had actually been working in the coffee industry for two years.
After graduating from college, Liu Wang's idea of opening a coffee shop became clearer after a few years in the coffee industry.
Liu Wang said that in the past two years, coffee culture has become more and more popular, coupled with the phenomenon of staying up late and working overtime, more and more people are in need of coffee.
"After hearing that I wanted to start a business, my original boss proposed to let me join his store, he provided me with publicity and channels for the purchase of equipment and raw materials for me to open a store, and I gave him 10% of the turnover every month."
Liu Wang told us that the reason why he should inherit is because he worked in this shop before and knew the situation well. On the other hand, it is also familiar with the boss and relatively more trusting.
Liu Wang said that the shop when he used to work has formed a set of mature business rules. There are four employees in the store, and the people responsible for online and offline orders perform their duties. You can make 200-300 cups of coffee a day, and the daily turnover is at least 5,000 yuan. ”
But after joining, Liu Wang found that opening a coffee shop was far from as simple as he thought.
"Now I open a new store, because the online marketing method is not mature, so the orders are basically from the offline. In order to save labor costs, I am currently the only one in the store, I can make 80 cups of coffee a day, and the turnover is about 2,000 yuan. ”
In order to open this store, Liu Wang has spent nearly 150,000 yuan on joining fees, one month's rent, water and electricity costs, decoration fees, and equipment purchase fees.
But after opening the store, Liu Wang also said bluntly, "Selling coffee does not make money." Because the cost is just a word, expensive! I'm now a cup of coffee, and I don't make more than $5, which is not counting my own salary. ”
Of course, Liu Wang also knows that there are many people who start a business but very few people who are successful. So before preparing to open a store, Liu Wang also made a lot of efforts.
For example, in terms of site selection, Liu Wang, based on the experience of the previous store location, specially selected a store close to the residential area and office building in the city center. This shop used to make Western food, and many decorations can be reused, which can leave a large amount of decoration costs.
After the official opening, Liu Wang also played a half-price opening activity regardless of losses.
"After a 50% discount, a cup of coffee is only a dozen yuan, and the price of a cup of milk tea is similar, which is a loss of money, even if it is an early advertisement." Through the half-price activity, Liu Wang's new store also successfully accumulated the first batch of customers. Within a week of opening, Liu Wang's WeChat group already had more than 500 customers.
Liu Wang said that due to the good choice of location, most of the customers who come to the store to consume are white-collar workers and office workers in the surrounding office buildings, and in his view, these crowds will also become his stable customers in the future.
Even on the last day of the half-price event, some customers in Liu Wang's group half-jokingly asked, can you buy a hundred cups of coffee during the half-price period to save? After obtaining Liu Wang's approval, several group friends in the group immediately transferred 1,000 yuan to Liu Wang as a "deposit" for buying coffee at half price.
And now, when the offline sales channels have initially opened, Liu Wang has also begun to turn his attention to the line. Liu Wang has considered that in the near future, when the online purchase channel is also completely opened, he will recruit an employee for himself and end the situation of opening a store by one person.