With the adoption of the draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine, how will the Russo-Ukrainian War end?
The war in Ukraine itself has brought a huge impact on the world, the price of oil, gas, gold, etc. has risen sharply, and some stocks have shrunk overnight, it can be said that this war has indirectly affected many countries. But what really shapes the world must be the outcome of the war. If the war is won, it will usher in a new era of Russian expansion in Europe. If the war is lost, Russia will be in dire straits, and the interests of the mainland may also be damaged.
In the draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine adopted by the United Nations on March 2, it called for the "immediate, complete and unconditional" withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, in addition to the relevant provisions against Belarus. Faced with such demands, do you think Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine?
I don't think Russia is going to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. Here's why:
First, in the first negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia put forward three conditions for a ceasefire: "Ukraine must unconditionally consider Russia's legitimate security interests", first of all, to recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, but Ukraine demanded that Russia hand over Crimea. Because of the Crimea issue, Russia has been wrestling with the West for so many years and has been sanctioned, but now Ukraine wants to take back Crimea, and Russia will naturally not agree. Ukraine must also be demilitarized, must remain neutral, and if Russia withdraws its troops unconditionally, the war will not gain any benefits and suffer heavy losses, which the Russian side does not want to see.
Second, Putin has repeatedly stressed that Ukraine must be de-militarized and de-Nazimized. That is to say, Russia will definitely disarm Ukraine and must "surrender". It is possible that Ukraine will not be allowed to have strategic weapons that threaten Russia in the future, and if Russia withdraws its troops at this time, western countries provide more assistance to Ukraine, and it will be more difficult to clean up Ukraine at that time. Therefore, Russia must solve the problem of militarization of Ukraine once and for all and eliminate the potential threat it poses to Russia, especially now that Ukraine has completely become a strategic pawn of the United States.
Third, in the face of various sanctions from many Western countries, the war waged by Russia is very expensive. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia burns 15 billion pounds a day, about $20 billion. With the money that Russia spends in a day, the United States can fight a month and a half of the war in Iraq, four months in Afghanistan, and six months in Kosovo. After investing so much manpower, material and financial resources, but being forced to withdraw unconditionally, even Ukraine will completely fall to NATO. Then Russia will lose a mess in this war, dumb and dumb, and there is no way to say.
Russia's national strength cannot support such a confrontation with NATO countries, so this war must ensure Ukraine's neutrality. If it withdraws unconditionally because of the resolution, Russia will not only fail to achieve the established political and military goals, but also be economically blocked by Western sanctions, and the economy will certainly be worse, which will make Russia's situation more difficult.
If Russia loses this war, it will almost certainly lead to political turmoil in Russia, even color revolutions and other internal political chain reactions that are difficult to predict today. There is still no one in Russia who can match Putin. If Russia is politically unstable, it may lead to the loss of Crimea, the Obstruction of the Black Sea Fleet, and the eventual escape of small countries in the Caucasus. At that point, Russia will be in dire straits.
The Russian army has almost controlled most of the ukrainian cities, and has the bargaining chips in its hands, and I do not think it will be forced to withdraw unconditionally under international pressure. After all, the United States has done too many bad things in blatantly bypassing the United Nations
So do you think Russia will withdraw its troops unconditionally? Please leave your opinion
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