I have collected a list of messages that are currently considered relatively objective and accurate to report and introduce, and the private message "1" is obtained and will be tracked continuously.
Some judgments
First of all, I still insist that Putin will not eventually use weapons of mass destruction, that this war will not be the trigger for World War III, and that experts generally believe that it is more of a verbal warning, a direct and public deterrent signal to NATO than necessarily a declaration of action.
If his negotiated bottom line is the independence of the two federations of eastern Ukraine and Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO or the European Union, if this line is broken, then this military operation will be a complete failure, and even he himself will risk being liquidated.
The first stage: encirclement and encroachment
According to the current situation of the Ukrainian war, the Russian army has fully grasped the air supremacy of Ukraine, and has demarcated the no-fly zone, the Russian air force's military operations and observations over Ukraine are completely unimpeded, combined with unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, it has basically achieved accurate positioning of Ukrainian military targets and carried out precision strikes, while Russia now basically only conducts air strikes and missile strikes on important targets in Ukraine, basically avoiding civilian casualties to the greatest extent.
(The convoy of armored vehicles, tanks, and artillery is only 25 kilometers from the city center.) Captain 64 km)
At present, most of the command system of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed, and it is impossible to form effective communication between the various ukrainian legions and the various armies, and it is difficult to quickly obtain and respond to the orders of the Ukrainian High Command.
At present, most of the Ukrainian army is divided and surrounded in the Eastern Region, and it is basically unrealistic to form a large-scale combat force, under Russia's air superiority, once they appear in the field, they will inevitably be bombed by the Russian Air Force on a large scale, and the blows will be eliminated in turn.
So their current state is to become an independent suspended small-scale combat unit, while the Russian army has taken the absolute initiative in frontal combat.
(It is rumored that Russia's original operational policy against Ukraine will end the fighting on March 6.) ）
The current Russian army is expected to shift from air superiority to ground superiority, sending more tanks, artillery and other heavy weapons to Ukraine, and thus strengthening logistical supplies.
Small-scale troops in the field will be annihilated and encircled in batches, while Ukrainian troops shrinking in various Ukrainian cities will be surrounded by superior forces, but no large-scale military operations will be carried out in a short period of time.
First, Putin does not want to fight in the streets, nor does he want to cause a large number of poor casualties, whether from the perspective of self-interest or the pressure of international public opinion, it is the next step, including the Russian army has now openly opened a channel to ukraine's major cities through wide and other propaganda channels, telling everyone that bombing is imminent and demanding that all civilians evacuate as soon as possible.
Second, Putin's goal is to have more initiative at the negotiating table, after controlling the major cities in Ukraine, he has basically had the corresponding political chips, and he does not want and does not need to destroy Ukraine, including many historical cities and cultural monuments in Ukraine, which will cause some interference to Putin's judgment.
Part II: Blockade and destruction of logistical resources
If, at this stage, Ukraine still chooses to resist, then it will move to the next stage, to blockade the entire territory of Ukraine, at least to ensure that those countries bordering Ukraine will not have the handover of weapons of mass destruction, there is information that the Ukrainian army will run out of ammunition within a week, man-portable anti-aircraft missiles and javelin anti-tank missiles will be used up before then.
Through satellite positioning and precision-guided missiles, the water fields, power stations, grain depots, and oil depots of every major city were destroyed, and the city was cut off from electricity and grain, and within a few days of the defenders in the city, the people of Ukraine who resolutely resisted were caught in a dilemma of survival.
After this, they will be again broadcast to persuade them to surrender, after all, they are clearly told that they will be completely destroyed and destroyed without surrender, and the United States has also made it clear that it will not participate in the war, NATO will not engage in a formal conflict with Russia, then for the Ukrainian resistance forces, they have been divided, isolated, and so on, they will starve to death, and there will be a large number of Ukrainian troops or paramilitary forces that will have a large-scale surrender.
This is the end of the war.