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How much does Russia have to spend on the war in Ukraine? 【Investment research double master】
The Russian-Ukrainian border conflict has escalated again, and the whole territory of Ukraine has been plunged into war.
On February 28, the European Union announced the supply of advanced fighter jets to Ukraine, and the United States also shipped a large number of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
Previously, Russia had elevated its nuclear weapons to a special state of combat readiness, and the situation seemed to be sliding to the brink of loss of control.
At the same time as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict intensified, the United States, in the name of "supporting the Federal Government of Somalia (supported by the United States)," airstrikes on the local armed forces in Somalia and ignited the war in Africa.
At the same time, European hegemon Germany also announced an increase of 100 billion euros in special funds for defense modernization, and increased annual defense military expenditure by more than 2% of GDP.
In the last week of February, we realized that the world was not at peace.
And history also tells us that the essence of war has always been a conflict of interest. But if the economic account behind the war is not calculated, perhaps not only will the war demands not be realized, but even the entire country's economy will collapse.
So how much does it cost to fight a battle?
What price will Russia pay for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Before the content begins, I will ask the question, russia and Ukraine have started a war, and what is the biggest loss? A. Russia; B. Ukraine; C. United States; D. Chinese shareholders
As soon as the cannon sounds, the gold is ten thousand!
Regarding the war, I think it is the 246 years of the founding of the people's republic, only 16 years of peace, since independence, the United States has more than 200 foreign military operations have the most say.
As soon as the cannon is fired, the gold is ten thousand.
In 1991, the Gulf War, which defined modern warfare, spent more than $100 billion on war in just 42 days, while China's annual GDP in 1991 was only $383.4 billion.
In 2003, the Iraq War triggered by a tube of detergent burned $23 billion in just 25 days, nearly $1 billion a day, while the total U.S. military expenditure was as high as $763 billion during the entire Iraq War.
The US military recently withdrew from the Afghan war, the direct military cost of more than 900 billion US dollars, indirect expenditure of up to 2 trillion US dollars, the image of a little understanding, A stock market the highest value of the company Guizhou Moutai, is less than 356.6 billion US dollars, an Afghan war, burned 6 Guizhou Moutai.
Of these sky-high war expenditures, weapons and military spending are the main expenditures.
In order to facilitate understanding, take the Liaoning ship as an example that everyone knows, as China's first aircraft carrier in service, we will not mention the cost of shipboard weapons construction and ammunition, as well as the high cost and maintenance cost of various high-tech equipment, the Liaoning ship only needs 16 million yuan to fill up with oil at a time, which is still the cheapest kind of fuel.
There is also a domestic PHL-03 long-range fire, named "cheap ballistic missile" by military enthusiasts, if you engage in a company-level salvo, it needs 20 million yuan, if you concentrate 6 (12 rounds) salvo once, it takes 100 million!
PHL-03 rocket launcher
During the Gulf War, the United States and multinational forces flew nearly 100,000 aircraft, dropped 90,000 tons of bombs, fired 288 Tomahawk cruise missiles and 35 air-launched cruise missiles, and used a series of the latest aircraft and various precision-guided weapons.
In terms of military personnel, a set of data comparisons is very representative: until 1939, the number of U.S. troops remained at 150,000, but by 1945, the number of U.S. troops once exceeded 10 million, and until now, the United States still has 1.4 million active soldiers.
As a superpower, the United States will spend $778 billion on military spending in 2020, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total expenditure.
With this concept, let's look at the Cost of War in Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
$500 million!
Let's first talk about the direct war funds, because the United States, Russia, Ukraine and other media, for Russia's combat strength data is different, between 100,000-200,000, here to take 150,000 calculations.
According to Ukrainian media reports, the Russian military has deployed 1200-1300 tanks of various types and 3000 armored vehicles of various types on the Russian-Ukrainian border; 28-34 ground satellite command; as well as 1600-1800 artillery pieces of various types and nearly 600 aircraft of various types; 91 ships of various types and 6 submarines; about 200 military aircraft of various types, and 300-400 missiles.
Of course, we can't calculate the specific price of each type of weapon, so according to the median price of Russian arms sales in the past 10 years, these weapons and equipment are worth about $50 billion.
Then according to Russia's military expenditure of 5,000 troops per day on the Syrian battlefield, plus daily combat attrition, Russia's daily war expenditure in Ukraine is about 500 million US dollars!
This number seems to be very high, but if you refer to the Afghan war 30 years ago, the Soviet Union's 100,000 troops burned 405 billion US dollars in 10 years, counting the inflation of these 30 years (240%), the size of the army increased by 50%, and military equipment such as fighters, warships, and submarines were also several times that of the Afghan war, and the military expenditure of 500 million US dollars on this day was already a conservative estimate.
If the situation continues to deteriorate, or if the scale of the war expands as other parties intervene, and the number of troops and weapons invested by Russia rises, the direct war cost will also increase.
sanction!
In addition to direct war spending, Russia will face "the worst ever" economic sanctions.
Since February 21, the United States, the European Union, and the G7 countries have announced the opening of sanctions against Russia.
Compared with the war funds mentioned above, the sanctions between Europe and the United States are the real crisis that Russia will face in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the already sluggish Russian economy may be worse.
First, 2.6 trillion of overseas assets were frozen, of which 1.4 trillion was frozen in the European Union, 1 trillion in the United States, and 200 billion in the United Kingdom, equivalent to Russia's gdp in 1.75 years.
Secondly, Europe and the United States have also joined forces to sanction the top 5 banks in Russia, and the Russian government will not be able to conduct lending transactions in the US and European markets, losing more than $400 billion in overseas borrowings every year, which will seriously affect the order of Russia's financial markets.
On February 24, the Russian stock market plunged more than 50% intraday, and in just two weeks, the Russian stock market fell by two-thirds, losing more than $600 billion.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict also led to a sharp depreciation of the ruble, which has fallen to an all-time low against the us dollar and a loss of $114.4 billion in the depreciation of russia's national currency.
Third, and most deadly, Russia is highly likely to be kicked out of the SWIFT international payment system by Europe and the United States.
Swift, as the world's main cross-border transfer channel, once kicked out of the SWIFT system, the international energy transactions that contribute 40% of Russia's fiscal revenue will not be able to proceed, and more than 70% of Russia's foreign trade will also be cut off.
After Iran was kicked out of the SWIFT system twice, foreign trade fell into recession, the scale of imports and exports fell sharply, and crude oil exports cut in half.
The shortage of imports has led to hyperinflation, and Iran has even been forced to barter.
If you are interested in the history of SWIFT and the sanctions in Europe and the United States, brush a SWIFT in the comment area, and we will do a special issue of content later.
It can be seen that after firing the first shot on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Russia has gambled on national fortunes.
However, Europe and the United States are not unscrupulous, in this era of economic globalization, Russia as the world's important oil, gas, metal minerals and food exporters, Russian crude oil exports accounted for 11.1% of the world, ranking second in the world, of which about 50% of the exports to the Eu, at the same time, 40% of the EU's natural gas imports also rely on Russia.
If Europe and the United States really cut off the Russian SWIFT system, it is bound to cut off its own energy supply channels, and the high energy shortage and inflation situation will also be worse.
I hope that the worst will not happen, and may there be peace in the world.
Well, that's it for this issue, and we'll see you next time.
bibliography:
1. SWIFT Sanctions: Content, Impact and Outlook, Ren Zeping
2. The price of war! How much does russia know about the economic cost of invading Ukraine? Xu Xiaowei
3. Russia: An Empire of Economic Stagnation, Vladislav Inozzemtsev
4. The Political and Social Roots of the Russian Economy and the Prospects for National Development, Feng Yujun
5. In the face of "unprecedented" economic sanctions, can Russia withstand it? Wei Cheng