In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian military, on the first day of the attack, first launched military operations against several important operational targets, which must be of vital importance to the overall war at the first time, including: stationing in the Donbass region, occupying The Antonov airport on the outskirts of Kiev, paralyzing a large number of Ukrainian military facilities, destroying the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force, and forming an encirclement circle against Ukraine from multiple lines.
However, Russia also has a primary operational target on the first day of the war that is more unexpected, that is, the Russian military quickly occupied the abandoned Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, or it can be said to be the "Chernobyl nuclear power plant site and tourist area", because the nuclear power plant has actually not only stopped operating, but has also been developed as a tourist attraction, of course, the high-radiation area is still forbidden to outsiders during daily periods.
At first glance, one might think that Russia may be worried about the use of nuclear power plants by Ukraine to carry out nuclear sabotage to block Russian military operations against Ukraine. There is nothing wrong with understanding this operation as an ordinary combat objective throughout the war, but it is a bit too simple to understand it as the primary military action on day 1 of the war, and three things illustrate the problem.
First, there are many nuclear power plants in Ukraine that can be used as targets for nuclear destruction, and to know that Ukraine's nuclear power utilization accounts for more than half of the national power grid, why does the Russian military have to worry about a nuclear power plant that has been shut down first?
Second, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on the northern border of Ukraine is far from the Udon and Kiev regions, where the Russian army focuses on, and even if the Ukrainian army really loses its mind, in so many nuclear power plants in Ukraine, it will not be the first to attack Chernobyl, because it has no direct effect on blocking the Russian attack.
Third, on the first day of the war, "the Ukrainian army first used very extreme nuclear destruction," which is almost impossible, and Ukraine will lose any Western support, so it is a little strange that the Russian army should have this concern for the Ukrainian army.
So, what was the intention of the Russian army to make Chernobyl the primary operational target on day 1 of the war? I think there may be two points as follows:
Russian Intent 1
Russia wants to tell the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian military and the entire international community, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, that the limited goal of this russian military operation is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Russia doesn't want the consequences of this war to be too serious, even if the Ukrainian army has this idea (Russia: now our personnel are here, if anyone is really crazy, it is certainly not me!). ）。 Of course, there are more associations beyond this, that is, you should each think about it.
Of course, Russia can express his intention through various channels, but its effect is obviously not as good as pulling everyone's attention to the topic of "Chernobyl", which is more famous than "Ukraine", and the cost is also low, and Russia is also well versed in the means of rubbing the topic!
In addition, Russia is a major exporter of nuclear power facilities and nuclear fuel, and its attitude toward nuclear safety has made a hot statement in passing, or has it made another "historic" long-term advertisement? The strategic wisdom of the Russian government cannot be underestimated.
Russian Intent 2
Russia wants to prevent the long-term effects of this conflict.
In fact, the most direct negative impact of military action in this conflict, from Russia's standpoint, is the international community's short- and medium-term economic isolation of Russia. As for the long-term negative effects, hehe, human beings are too easy to forget, in more than 10 years, even a few years, how Russia's relations with the West in the world, and today's Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there is little to do with it. At that time, even if Russia continued to have bad relations with the West, it was also a problem at that time, and between countries, it was always a matter of interest.
But the only exception is: "nuclear war and nuclear terror have occurred in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict", which is a "war event" that Russia absolutely wants to prevent, otherwise Russia will not only have the opportunity to repair its relations with the West within 10 years, but even countries with which they have good relations will avoid it. Therefore, as an abandoned nuclear power plant, even if it is destroyed by unpredictable terrorists, Russia must "stand there and become a victim", rather than be suspected of being the "initiator". Because, "nuclear deterrence" can exist, but "real nuclear war", in fact, no big country and any country dare to touch it first!
Speaking of which, with the topic of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, we also talk about the tragic state of national disaster in which Ukraine has gone from a great future after independence to the current tragic state of "fighting with Russia, losing Crimea, and having a strong sense of independence in many regions of the country", and the Ukrainian government has missed many opportunities for development and improvement.
Of course, in line with the principle that history never repeats itself, the so-called "missed opportunity" here is only a single discussion of the issues related to Chernobyl, and the political process in Ukraine is far more complicated than that described here.
Ukraine misses opportunity 1
In the long run, Ukraine has missed out on the opportunity to use its advanced nuclear power technology to bring development to it.
In the early days of independence, Ukraine's family foundation was quite thick compared to all the former Soviet countries, including military industry, industry, agriculture, geographical resources, etc., which can be said to be second only to Russia in terms of comprehensiveness.
Take the nuclear power technology represented by the Chernobyl nuclear power plant system, Ukraine is ranked high in the world. The Chernobyl incident during the Soviet Union was actually an opportunity for post-independence Ukraine. Because the first problem facing the development of nuclear power is nuclear safety, and Ukraine has the opportunity to develop into a nuclear power power power power country by virtue of cooperation with international parties, including Russia, in the process of dealing with the legacy of Chernobyl.
However, Ukraine, after more than 30 years, did not take advantage of this opportunity. Other aspects, including agriculture, engines and other fields, are also generally the same. Some people say that Ukraine in nuclear power, is subject to the technical control of Russia and the United States, can not develop smoothly, this is the government's ability to problem, Ukraine at least in its own international positioning and domestic talent cohort, must have made a big mistake that can not be repaired.
Ukraine misses opportunity 2
In the medium term, Ukraine has failed to understand the nature of its relations with Russia and thus uses its relations with Russia to offer it opportunities for political stability.
The development process of relations between Ukraine and Russia is bound to be a big drama, the two countries have enduring and resentful grievances, coupled with the mixing of the United States and Europe in it, either Russia and Ukraine, are thrilling step by step, and if they take a wrong step, they will rewrite history. Ukraine's relations with Russia should have been an opportunity for Ukraine, because every time the United States and Europe were mixed, most of the countries directly targeted were Russia. If Ukraine can balance the relations between all parties in it, its development space is still very large, and Ukraine also has this family foundation and foundation to take advantage of this opportunity, and other former Soviet countries do not have this opportunity.
However, Ukraine is obviously still because of the problem of deviation from its own positioning, and in the exchange of grievances with Russia, it has not taken advantage of the opportunity and missed the opportunity. For example, in the field of nuclear power technology, Ukraine most of the time for political reasons did not make good use of cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear power, including the handling of the Chernobyl incident, and finally turned to cooperation with the West, until finally a complete rift with Russia, it was not able to develop its nuclear power technology capabilities into a complete level of industrialization.
Ukraine misses opportunity 3
In the short term and in the future, can Ukraine take advantage of the slope to adjust its national strategy and foreign policy to meet future development opportunities?
Why did the Russian military give Ukraine an opportunity to readjust its national strategy and foreign policy through this military target against Chernobyl?
In fact, in the final analysis, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is impossible to treat Ukraine as a complete enemy, but it is also impossible to treat Ukraine like Chechnya. Therefore, Ukraine's accession to NATO is indeed an insoluble political problem for Russia, after all, the two countries, including Belarus, are intertwined with the people, either relatives or friends. If Ukraine can understand this in depth, take advantage of this signal from Russia, and then take advantage of the opportunity of the West to ignore it (its president has repeatedly complained that Ukraine has been abandoned by the West), it is also a good opportunity to adjust its foreign policy (no one who wants to adjust can not withstand the pressure!). ）。
Of course, the actual situation is too complicated, whether there are characters in Ukraine who can come out to clean up the scene, no one knows!
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