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Have you noticed that in the usual news about Apple's new products, there will basically be keywords such as "Mark Gurman", "Guo Mingxi", "supply chain", "source" and so on.
Which people or channels have more accurate forecasts? Where is the original source of these messages? What other channels are worth knowing about Apple or related information about the digital technology field? We'll cover them all below.
What is the point of learning about new products?
Before getting to the point, you may wish to answer the question of the subheading. What is the point of paying attention to the information about these new products for the individual readers or organizations who want to know?
For ordinary readers, many are more interested in the field of digital technology to take the initiative to understand the relevant information, the purpose may be to understand the industry trends, increase insights or entertainment.
Of course, there are also many readers who are rushing to understand the purpose of the product and prepare for their subsequent purchases. Users don't want to release new products shortly after buying an old model or reduce prices just after they've finished buying them. Therefore, they will generally pay attention to when the next generation of new products will be released, how the appearance and color are, what aspects are improved, and which one is better to choose under the comparison...
Some third-party accessories manufacturers also need to pay attention to the dynamics of the industry in order to seize market opportunities. For example, it is necessary to understand the detailed specifications and openings of the new mobile phone in advance, so that a large number of adaptable protective sleeves and tempered films can be produced when the product is released. Of course, inaccurate news will also make some accessories based on fake models become scrap.
Finally, competitors who are also mobile phone manufacturers need to prevent the leakage of their product appearance, research results or other core competitiveness information on the one hand; on the other hand, they also need to understand what kind of products and technologies are being developed by current friends and competitors.
Before the release or sale of a new product, some of the top digital bloggers usually receive the media machine for testing or experience in advance, and can upload the experience, unboxing, and evaluation video after the conference or the product is on sale, but they are usually required to sign a confidentiality agreement. (Leaking appearance or other details before the specified time requires a large amount of liquidated damages)
For example, the blogger "Beautiful Technology" sent out the Xiaomi Mi 10 Supreme Commemorative Edition unboxing video in advance in August 2020, violating the confidentiality agreement with Xiaomi. Subsequently, through arbitration by the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission, it was awarded 1 million yuan in compensation to Xiaomi.
There will generally be a similar confidentiality agreement between Apple and dealers, although the dealer channel can get the mobile phone in advance, but early activation also requires compensation for liquidated damages or even disqualification of dealers.
What are the sources of information disclosure?
Back to the main topic, the current digital information information, including Apple's new products, can usually be brushed through the main domestic social media Weibo, WeChat subscription account and news app.
But in fact, these information are generally reprinted or edited, they may come from foreign comprehensive information websites, such as Macrumors, 9to5mac, appleinsider, appletrack and so on, which focus on Apple product information information. Although the website will add some subjective judgments to the original report, it is still not the initial source of information.
However, because these websites have a high degree of popularity, sometimes they will directly receive submissions or revelations from so-called sources and media sources who are "unwilling to disclose their identity".
The real sources are actually the personal whistleblowers Dylandkt, Jon Prosser, etc. mentioned later, industry journalist/editor Mark Gurman, supply chain consultant Ross Young, securities analyst Guo Mingxi, supply chain media DigiTimes, major regulators around the world (such as the US FCC, the domestic Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) and so on.
The main sources – supply chain, industry journalists, analysts
When it comes to Apple's breaking news, it is necessary to mention Guo Mingji, who is currently doing Apple predictions that "seem to have nothing to do with work" as an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities. In fact, he and his team are predicting the actions of Apple and related industry companies based on the news of the upstream supply chain, and compiling reports to help investors understand market trends.
Before that (12-18 years), he was an analyst at KGI Securities in Taiwan to make Apple new product forecasts. During this period, Apple's new products were accurately predicted many times. For example, the iPhone 5C with plastic and colorful body, the new 12-inch MacBook (discontinued) and so on.
Earlier, Kuo held senior analyst positions at DigiTimes, which focuses on the semiconductor and information industries. As one of the media focusing on the semiconductor and communication industries, DigiTimes itself also has a fairly solid supply chain industry foundation. It was born in the late 1990s, when the semiconductor industry was developing rapidly in East Asia, and its founders were Shi Zhenrong, founder of Acer, Hu Dinghua, chairman of Wanghong Electronics, and Zhang Zhongmou, chairman of TSMC. Therefore, Guo Mingxi also holds many first-hand sources of information industry that are difficult for ordinary people to access.
Similar to this experience is actually another well-known whistleblower, Mark Gurman, who began making exclusive news about Apple at the age of 15. In his early years as a journalist for 9to5Mac, he became known for his wide range of internal sources and joined Bloomberg after leaving. He currently sends out Apple's exclusive news almost every week, including new consumer technologies, product devices, applications, etc., and all with high accuracy.
Another of the more famous is Ross Young, CEO of DSCC, a research institute for the display industry. He also releases news about Apple's new products from time to time, but mainly focuses on the screen aspect. For example, he has accurately predicted that the iPad mini 6 will not have a Home button, have a smaller bezel and a larger screen, as well as accurate predictions for the screen size, refresh rate, and screen technology used in the new M1 Pro/Max MacBook Pro released last year.
General sources – forums, websites, regulators
In addition to the above-mentioned apple information through some of the more mainstream channels to obtain Apple information, some of the post bars, forums, websites may also become Apple's new product details of the channel. For example, last year's new MacBook Pro bangs screen breaking news, the earlier source was "the community to discuss the internet and technology topics" V2ex, and then was moved to the United States reddit forum, and finally through the Macrumors quoted the report before it began to receive widespread attention.
Among the many media sites that mainly report on Apple news, a website called AppleTrack is very interesting. It counts the initial sources of breaking information since 2020, the accuracy of different subjects and individuals. According to its data, Ross Young is the most accurate in breaking news in the past two years, and Mark Gurman also has good disclosure accuracy.
In addition to the various channels mentioned above, in fact, part of Apple's breaking news comes from some regulators in the major markets of Apple's products around the world.
Minority authors @PlatyHsu "Exploring the 'Clues' of Apple Products from Regulatory Disclosures" actually explains in detail the background, content and value of common regulatory disclosures in Apple Information.
What you may be wondering about recently submitted by Apple to the Eurasian Economic Commission Database (EEC) is a number of models of iPhone, iPad and Mac products that have not yet been released.
According to these news obtained from the regulator's database, combined with the revelations of sources, it can be determined to a certain extent that the new products in the spring conference will be iPhone SE3, iPad Air 5 and new Mac mini.
Similar regulators are actually the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (network access license, model approval management), and the State Administration for Market Regulation (mandatory product certification, that is, "CCC certification") and so on.
Other sources – employees, patents, system codes, posters
Apple's suppliers and foundries may also leak secrets due to internal employees or ransomware.
A typical example is that last year, the REvil hacking group stole Apple's product design blueprint after Apple's spring conference and announced some of the design blueprint. From the drawings they released, they also confirmed the news claimed by other whistleblowers that "the MacBook Pro has many interfaces returned". At present, the REvil hacking group has also been captured.
As early as 2017, the daughter of an Apple engineer privately uploaded a hands-on video of the iPhone X before it was released and showed Apple Pay and some of the iPhone X's unique user interface features (including sensitive information such as product codes and internal software), and eventually the Apple employee was fired for violating the company's nondisclosure policy.
In addition, you may not think that in fact, Apple will also intentionally disclose some information about the conference and products before the start of the conference.
For example, at the end of August last year, Lisa Jackson, Apple's vice president of environmental, policy and social initiatives, changed the profile picture of his social media account, with Cook introducing the iPhone 12 in the background and the device used to shoot the video in the back. All of this is enough to show that Apple has begun to produce a video of the autumn conference at that time.
Coincidentally, an Apple employee Steven Huon recently posted on Instagram that the background is Apple Park, with a picture of a "field note board", suggesting that Apple is shooting something around Apple Park. According to the time node, this is likely to be Apple preparing for the spring conference on March 8 (1 a.m. Beijing time on the 9th).
In addition, Apple's new patented technology may also include new products or new features that it will add in the future. More representative is the website Patently Apple, which focuses on reporting and dissecting Apple's patent information. However, because patent information is often more advanced and focuses on trial and exploration, there are not many examples of new products.
In the code of Apple's main operating system iOS and macOS beta, it may also usually contain some new product and new feature information. For example, last year, MacRumors found in the iOS 14.6 beta that Apple was preparing for Apple Music to support HiFi, and then Apple Music began to support lossless audio to confirm this speculation.
On the eve of the release of the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro last year, the developers found in the macOS Monterey preview version of the different MacBook Pro resolutions "3456 x 2234 Retina" and "3024 x 1964 Retina", which also confirmed the existence of the new notch screen.
A week before apple's launch, Apple will also release the promotional poster of the conference. Although there is no obvious new product information in the poster most of the time, it is difficult to dissect and interpret the elements in it to get information about the new product.
For example, in the poster of last spring conference, the Apple Logo formed by the seven color bars converged on the iMac 7 colors at the conference just matched.
summary
The sources of news about Apple may be much more than the ones mentioned earlier. But in general, among the many products Apple's new product news channels, the supply chain channels and the breaking information of a small number of analysts are relatively accurate, but it is difficult to achieve 100%. The second is the information contained in some regulators and software code, as well as some rumors from forum posts.
In addition to Apple's breaking news, we are actually exposed to a large number of news and news that do not know the authenticity and accuracy every day. In addition to paying attention to the source of the information, it is also necessary to assess its credibility, and have more of its own ideas and thoughts, rather than blindly believing and spreading falsehoods.
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