Tough guy Putin resolutely showed his sword: at 21:00 Moscow time on February 21, 2022, Russian Federation President Putin made a televised speech, announcing that he would formally sign a decree recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation announced that with immediate effect Russia is associated with the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic". The reason why the names of the countries are in quotation marks is because the two countries are not yet widely recognized. I believe that the Chinese government will not explicitly respond to "recognition" or "non-recognition", but will only reaffirm the principle of respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity. So how many meanings does It mean that Russia has also established diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level with them? Two things: Russia declares two more sovereign states on the planet and has established diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level that can legitimately support them.
So where are Donetsk and Luhansk? As can be seen from the map below, it is located in the Wudong region and is an important industrial base in Ukraine, adjacent to the western border of Russia.
Putin's sword shines so decisively that it is estimated that Biden is a little confused for a while. The United States subsequently announced sanctions against Russia's two major financial institutions and elites, while indicating that the original intention of mobilizing U.S. troops was to defend and that the United States had no intention of going to war with Russia. The emphasis is on the second half of the sentence, "I don't really want to fight."
Well, this sub-Ukrainian is completely blindfolded: Big brother, don't you mean to protect me, to let me join NATO? I've all been cut off, won't you take it back for me?"
I think that Putin's sword display this time is both a helpless move and a necessary move. In order to defend Russia's geopolitical security, he has no other way to retreat.
First, why should Putin shine his sword?
There is an old Chinese saying that it is tolerable and intolerable. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO continued to expand eastward, absorbing new members and now having 30 member states. On the map (pictured below), Ukraine and Belarus have become Russia's last line of defense as Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania have all joined NATO.
After the Biden administration took office, it took a tough attitude toward Russia, repeatedly encouraged Ukraine to confront Russia, and expressed its support for Ukraine's accession to NATO and strengthened military assistance to the Ukrainian government. Starting in August 2021, the United States and Ukraine signed a series of military cooperation documents, and the US Defense Secretary visited Ukraine to support Ukraine's accession to NATO. This series of operations made Ukraine scream badly, and Putin was very uncomfortable, and it seemed that the old man was very capable of doing things. Putin's sword this time must have been carefully considered and weighed repeatedly.
NATO is a strategic military organization established by the United States-led European and North American countries to achieve defense cooperation, which can mobilize nuclear weapons and conventional forces. The historical background was established to counter the Warsaw Pact organization, whose leader was the Soviet Union. However, after the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, NATO not only did not disband, but continued to expand its sphere of influence. If Ukraine joins NATO, then NATO can directly deploy troops to Ukraine, that is, without even giving a little buffer, directly deploy troops to russia's doorstep. Who can tolerate such bullying and threats?
The knife was almost on the neck, and no one could bear it any longer. Bear with it, the other party may become more and more inching. It's better to punch in the face and try your reaction. This is why Putin, who hastily speculated, had to act. To tell the truth, Putin's courage to pick up such a hot potato head-on requires wisdom, courage and determination, and even more needs national righteousness.
Second, why does Putin dare to show his sword?
Putin showed his sword in order to open up, real knife and real gun to do a game? Of course not! I think the reason why he dared to show his sword was to judge that the US-led NATO would not directly support Ukraine in a confrontation with Russia. Although Russia has lost the glory of the Soviet era, it still has a strong nuclear force and is not a vegetarian.
Moreover, if you wave your arms in the United States, will other little brothers be willing to follow? The epidemic is serious, the economy is sluggish, and no one has the spare time to fight and play without so much silver. And, for the sake of this mess in Ukraine, it is not worth it. You Americans love to promise anything, promise to go, you European countries do not want to have a poor relative who has no ability, no money, and is full of lawsuits.
So the most crucial thing is, will the United States wave its arms or set an example to send its own troops? I think there's a good chance it won't. Now that the biggest enemy of the United States is China, a hard battle with Russia, is it not for China to reap the benefits of the fishermen? Also, is the quagmire of war so easy to climb out? Can the old man still withstand such an exciting operation? (Youth is capital [innocent laugh])
Fights are afraid of opponents with red eyes, and now Putin has made a bright move, see how you take it from the United States. If the United States does not dare to be tough, then Putin has the leverage to return to the negotiating table.
Third, Putin's backhand and China's position
Putin made an appearance at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. When the situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense and he is in a hurry, did he come to China to help the Winter Olympics? Apparently not. According to the Kremlin, the leaders of China and Russia had lunch together on February 4 and are likely to sign more than 15 agreements involving gas and finance. Russia is considering building a new gas pipeline to China via Mongolia, which, if it does, would be the second between China and Russia.
Oh, this is the gong to the European countries to hear it. Come on, I'm not just in Russia to do business with you, I can do business with China and sell a little more gas to China. I shut down the gas pipelines in Europe, and I can freeze you to death in the winter. Energy is Europe's dead pit, and they can't afford to play. Although the February 4 statement about whether the gas pipeline will be built or not is a question mark (because there is already one), and when it will be built is a question mark, Russia has reminded European countries: you are leisurely, and fighting with me is likely to hurt your boss not much, and it will hurt you yourself a lot.
In addition, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia. Oh, isn't it the same as the Sino-Russian "financial agreement" mentioned above? Putin should have repeatedly considered the sanctions that the United States might take, so it would send a signal of Sino-Russian financial cooperation. Can this financial agreement solve Russia's real problems? Oh, at least not for the time being! Again, this is just a signal that Russia is on guard and, if not perfect, will do as little harm to the financial sector as possible. In short, I will not let you take it.
Therefore, Putin cannot get a "back hand" in China that produces substantive results, but he is talking about China's attitude. China's neutrality in the incident and helping to match it at the right time is the greatest support for him. Putin can't hope to fight a war, he just wants to knock the mountain and shock the tiger and not let the Americans deceive people too much. Explaining clearly to the Chinese side its intentions and bottom line is conducive to China's mediation. As for whether there is an exchange of interests behind it, it is not known.
China's attitude will be as steady as ever, and it will not clearly take sides, because this team is really not good at standing. If you are not accustomed to the United States, but you still have to look at the face of Ukraine, after all, Ukraine is a very important trading partner of China, which can be seen by looking back at the history of the Liaoning, and there are also many trade exchanges in other fields. If you say that you are against Russia, are you not on the side of the American camp? If we say that we support Russia, the issue of territorial disputes is very sensitive, not to mention that we still have the Taiwan issue, and taking sides on the issue of territorial sovereignty will ignite the fire, which has never been our style.
Therefore, the Chinese government will be "impartial" (play a good tai chi), deal with the facts (against international law and related treaties, who is right and who is wrong), and then wait for the development of the situation (sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight). You fight, which door is it to shut me up? While you are fighting fiercely, I can hurry up and overtake in the corners. Of course, it is best not to play too much, the interests are inextricably linked, playing big hair is uncomfortable, and I need to come forward to inform when I am a peacemaker.
Let's talk about daydreaming Ukraine
Uh, after talking about the situation between Russia and Ukraine for most of the day, where did that "U-Ukraine" go? Doesn't it have anything to do with him? Well, it has something to do with him because he's a chessboard. It doesn't have much to do with him, because how the Russians and the United States play chess doesn't matter. Remember, he was just a borrowed chessboard, and the fate of the chess game he said didn't count at all.
In my opinion, Ukraine has been controlled by a group of selfish and brainless goods in its own country, and it has been swept away by the old man.
We have to briefly break up the Russian-Ukrainian relations. Russia and Ukraine were one five hundred years ago (five hundred years here is a fictitious reference, and there is no evidence of when the specific origin is traced), that is, brotherhood. But these two brothers have different hearts on the same side, especially ukraine, often think that the eldest brother pinches him and bullies him, so he is aggrieved. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's economy declined and domestic contradictions intensified. The Wudong region near Russia is an industrial area, with a relatively developed economy, and is emotionally very pro-Russian, even thinking that it should belong to Russia. The Ussi region, on the other hand, is mainly agricultural and relatively backward, and because of historical reasons (I will not repeat it, the story is too long), anti-Russian sentiment is relatively heavy. What is even more ridiculous is that Wudong and Ussi do not speak the same language, Wudong speaks Russian and Ussi speaks Ukrainian. As a result, Ukraine has been torn apart by two forces going in different directions, with constant conflict, a serious economic downturn, and even the defeat of all the nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union, from the world's third largest nuclear-armed country to a non-nuclear state. Alas, what kind of brains and talents can such a loser have?
In recent years, Ukraine has mainly been dominated by several major economic oligarchs taking turns to sit on the throne, corruption has become a common practice (those who are bent on making money cannot do anything serious), and most of them have strong pro-US tendencies to seek to leave Russia and enter Europe. In Ukraine's eyes, the United States is the rich father he wants to turn to, so after the United States gave him some promises, the second son mistakenly believed that obedience could make his dream come true. As everyone knows, he was put together by the United States. The United States emphasizes that the mobilization of troops is for defense and has no intention of engaging in combat. In other words, Ukraine wants the United States to help to get back the Eastern Region, and it has little hope of fighting the country itself. So what happens next in Ukraine? Look at the face of the United States, act well, and be a puppet.
If Russia controls the region, ukraine will be left with only the relatively backward ussi region, and the economic pressure will be even more severe. Ask such a poor relative, does the EU dare to ask for it?
So does the United States really ignore Ukraine? Surely not, the international police never stop brushing up on presence. I speculate that the United States will continue to increase its military support for Ukraine, but not directly at war. If you want to do something, the Ukrainian army, the Americans will most likely hide behind. Therefore, local conflicts between Russia and Ukraine may occur from time to time, but regional wars will not occur, because the United States and Russia do not really want to fight, and Ukraine has no ability to fight. After a little fight, it will eventually return to the negotiating table, and Ukraine's intention to join NATO will not be easy.
This is my view of the situation in Russia and Ukraine: there will be no large-scale war, only small fights, and talk while fighting. My analysis may be superficial, and my views may be wrong, and I hope to correct them.
Today, my son is also very surprised why I have a basic understanding of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but I don't know that international relations was a professional course of his old mother. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has nothing to do with our daily lives, but the great events that have taken place in this world deserve our understanding and consideration. If you only stare at the place in front of you a few meters every day, it is bound to be too closed and less fun.